Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Anchor Point, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 7:41PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 8:12 AM AKDT (16:12 UTC) Moonrise 8:24PMMoonset 3:49PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 340 Am Akdt Tue Sep 28 2021
Today..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchor Point, AK
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location: 59.77, -151.84     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 281308 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 508 AM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A vertically stacked low crosses the Alaska Peninsula and travels into the southern Gulf today, before tracking eastward towards the Southeast Panhandle. High pressure remains over much of the Southern Mainland through tomorrow, continuing the current calmer weather pattern. Another very strong system develops over eastern Russia and moves into the northern Bering by late Wednesday morning. This system takes a southward path across the central Bering, deepening as it travels, before crossing over the Alaska Peninsula and changing trajectory to head eastward. There is a strong jet influence to help amplify and deepen the low. Thus, storm force winds, and possibly a period of hurricane force winds in the northern Bering, and heavy precipitation on the western edge of the low will likely dominate much of the central Bering. There is still a fair amount of model inconsistency with this low that will require some fine tuning over the next couple of days.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are in good synoptic agreement through the short term. Solutions are handling the next system approaching the northern Bering rather well through about 60-hr before model spread grows. All solutions are taking the same general track, moving southward across the central Bering, but vary some in low strength. The Canadian/GFS are the most similar, with the EC being the weakest and the NAM being the strongest through at least Thursday afternoon. There is also some struggle with center location and storm speed. Another key difference is the Canadian/GFS are hinting at the development of weak secondary surface lows along the Southwest Coast, where at the NAM/EC remain as open waves.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Southcentral Alaska is mainly under clear skies this morning with just some high clouds passing over the Kenai Peninsula and north Gulf coast. These high clouds are associated with a low that is tracking just a little south of Kodiak Island this morning and which will end up in the eastern Gulf overnight tonight and beyond. There is some light rain in Kodiak early this morning due to the low, but with the low moving to the east it should end later this morning and start to clear out overnight tonight as north to northwest flow develops.

The region will not be completely done with this low even after it moves eastward as it will elongate Wednesday afternoon and spread more moisture northward into the eastern section of Prince William Sound. This will bring a chance of rain to Cordova Wednesday night and even possibly as far west as Valdez. It may also bring some more snow to the Wrangell Mountains tomorrow night into Thursday.

The rest of Southcentral should see sunny skies through tomorrow, but the next storm will move into the Gulf on Thursday bringing more rain to Kodiak and then spreading clouds into the inland areas of Southcentral by Thursday afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

The King Salmon radar (PAKC) has been active overnight and early this morning. There is a low south of Kodiak which has wrapped moisture into the Alaska Peninsula/AKPEN. This low will move quickly towards southeast Alaska and conditions will steadily improve for the King Salmon - Port Heiden area. A trough will push across Nunivak and Nightmute later today bringing light showers. Wednesday night a new Bering low will push across Nunivak again but this system will bring gusty winds and another round of precipitation. By Wednesday evening, as the front moves inland expect steady rainfall along coastal locations/snow in the Kuskokwim Mountains and gusts as high at 40 mph. The Togiak to Dillingham corridor is expected to get between 1 inch - 3/4 inch of rain in 24rs.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

A low pressure system has moved into the Gulf Of Alaska and in its wake gusty northerly winds along the Aleutian Chain. A weak disturbance will move across the northern Bering tonight but with the ridge in place, this system will follow the path of least resistance and move into the Western Alaska. Late Tuesday, a low moves across Kamchatka and into the Western Bering. With the help of intense cold air from Siberia, this system will rapidly deepen. Cold air over warmer air is inherently unstable. This system will bring strong winds and enhanced seas to much of the Bering. Stay tuned!

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday).

Thursday begins with a low in the northern Bering producing widespread gales and large waves across much of the central and southern Bering Sea. A swath of storm-force winds close to the center will accompany this low through Thursday afternoon as it dives southward toward the eastern Aleutian Islands. Seas 20 to 35 ft are possible in the central and southern Bering through Thursday night. As the low begins to cross the Aleutian Chain into the North Pacific Thursday night, gusty gap winds potentially to storm force will develop through the eastern Aleutians. Ahead of this low, a front with gale force winds is also expected to push from Bristol Bay Thursday morning across the AKPen into the western Gulf through Thursday night before diminishing. On Friday morning, the situation becomes more uncertain, however potential impacts are most likely in the Gulf. A new swath of gales may develop with the first low swinging back northward from the North Pacific. Gales may become widespread from Bristol Bay and across the Gulf of Alaska, with additional strong gap winds along the AKPen as the low restrengthens Friday afternoon. There will be the potential for storm force winds wrapping this low sometime late Friday or early Saturday, with wave heights approaching 30 ft. Coverage of strong winds and large waves should begin to decrease on Saturday as the low moves inland somewhere along the Gulf coast.

Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday).

Active weather is expected with an amplified upper-level longwave trough in place over mainland Alaska for the weekend period. The main feature of interest will be a cyclone crossing the AKPen on Friday intensifying as it enters the Gulf. In the lee of the low, expect strong, gusty gap winds along the AKPen and western Gulf coast through Saturday, with the low helping to pull cold Arctic air southward across Southwest Alaska and the AKPen. While the exact storm track remains uncertain, this low will drive northward, pushing ashore somewhere along the north Gulf Coast sometime on Saturday, bringing strong winds and rain to the north Gulf Coast as well as rain and snow inland over Southcentral. However, the exact placement of the low will determine which areas and the timing of the strongest impacts. Conditions on Sunday will become milder, though a lingering low in the Gulf and remnant troughing aloft will likely keep Southcentral cloudy with showers and snow flurries continuing. A shortwave ridge looks to build eastward across the Bering on Sunday, promoting calmer conditions. This will be followed by the extratropical remnants of Typhoon Mindulle entering the western Bering Sunday night. There is decent agreement among global models that this remnant cyclone will push into the central Bering on Monday with a central pressure bottoming out in the 950s.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Hurricane 185 Gale 170 172-179 181 411-414 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KM SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . PS MARINE/LONG TERM . CQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APXA2 1 mi88 min ESE 1.9 27°F 996 hPa19°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 12 mi43 min 43°F 49°F1 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 24 mi55 min 48°F996 hPa
HMSA2 25 mi41 min ENE 7 G 13 41°F 31°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 26 mi103 min ESE 8 995 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 31 mi43 min NE 5.1 G 6 41°F 996.3 hPa28°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK20 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair29°F24°F82%996.5 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK24 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair29°F27°F92%996.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE5E4SE3SE3W4SW4SW6W5W3CalmNE4NE3N4NE4NE5N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmN4E5E4SE44S5S5SW4N5W5NW3N3N4CalmE5N3N3--CalmCalmCalmN3Calm
2 days agoCalmNE4E6E6E6E8E7E9E9E10E8N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
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Tue -- 02:19 AM AKDT     4.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:06 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:51 AM AKDT     14.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:22 PM AKDT     8.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:58 PM AKDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 07:46 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:05 PM AKDT     15.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:19 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.35.44.44.76.18.210.412.413.714.113.512.210.79.48.78.81011.813.614.915.41513.711.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Alaska
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Ninilchik
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:28 AM AKDT     4.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:06 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:51 AM AKDT     14.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:32 PM AKDT     8.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:58 PM AKDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 07:46 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:05 PM AKDT     15.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:18 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.45.44.34.35.77.910.212.213.714.113.512.210.79.48.58.59.711.613.414.815.415.113.811.9

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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