Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seward, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:57AMSunset 6:30PM Thursday October 21, 2021 1:59 PM AKDT (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:58PMMoonset 9:11AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ121 Resurrection Bay- 401 Am Akdt Thu Oct 21 2021
Today..N wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt by afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Tonight..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Fri..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Fri night..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat through Mon..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seward, AK
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location: 60.13, -149.42     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 211313 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 513 AM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

An enormous upper trough axis runs northwestward from the deep North Pacific through Southwest, then curves to an upper low south of the Gulf of Anadyr. An intensifying storm low over the Bering is generating storm-force winds along the west and east flank of the low, creating widespread showers across the Bering and Aleutian Chain. A high pressure aloft over Southcentral is streaming mid to upper clouds directly northward. Meanwhile, a weakening surface low over western Prince William Sound brings steady light to moderate rain and increased moisture across Southcentral this morning.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Computer models are becoming more in sync with the progress and placement of the Bering low today through Friday. The potential threat for hurricane force winds over the southern Bering and central Aleutians starting this afternoon into Friday morning remains high among the solutions. A parade of lows from the North Pacific will usher a lot of weather across the Gulf and Southcentral starting tonight into the end of the week. Yet, the future placement and motion of these expected systems remain a bit challenging for the long term. For this reason, the forecast confidence is low after Friday night.

AVIATION.

PANC . Lower ceilings and light rain are expected to continue, causing MVFR conditions to stick around until dry downsloping becomes more pronounced over Anchorage Bowl this evening. Southeasterly Turnagain arm gusts in the early afternoon hours could briefly reach the terminal for a few hours. The potential for improving weather this evening will yield to VFR conditions tonight into early Friday morning.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A low in Prince William Sound is moving northwestward and rapidly weakening this morning. This low is very similar to the one from two days ago with the main difference being this one is moving onshore a little farther northeast. AS did the last low, while it has been bringing in strong winds into the Gulf, it will mostly dissipate at the surface as it crosses the Kenai and Chugach mountains just leaving a lee side trough at the surface. There is a good amount of moisture with this low and enough lifting to bring in moderate rain to the northern Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage to the Matanuska Valley. Higher elevations are getting some snow, but temperatures have been slow to drop overnight with the warm air moving in with this low. Even so, the biggest forecast challenge for today is deciphering where and when rain may turn to snow. At this point it looks like this will be mainly a rain event for lower elevations around the northern Cook Inlet region and even into the Susitna Valley as Talkeetna and Skwentna have been reporting P-type as rain through the night.

The 500 mb trough is currently over Kodiak Island this morning and will move northward through the day. This trough is weakening some it probably will not be a precipitation maker, but keep it from significantly clearing out after the low moves through.

The next system will be a shortwave ridding the southeast flow off the Gulf and reaching Southeast Prince William Sound late tonight. There is still mostly warm air associated with this wave as well as another shortwave not far behind it. These shortwaves are associated with a very complex system in the low in which a low complex in the eastern Gulf interacts with a very strong low cutting just southwest of the Gulf on Friday night into Saturday. This is creating a mess of a complex low in the Gulf that is giving both numerical models and meteorologists alike fits trying to figure out.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Broad longwave trough pattern exists over Southwest Alaska today extending from the Bering Strait, across Southwest and into the North Pacific. This negatively tilted trough quickly gets shoved off to the northeast by a transient ridge before the next front off a strong Bering low reaches the coast tonight. Winds along the coast will rapidly increase throughout the day today and persist though the overnight hours. Temperatures are expected to remain relatively steady over the next couple days, with daytime temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30's and overnight temperatures dipping into the low 20's for most areas. Bristol Bay will be overall a few degrees warmer than the rest of the Mainland. The bulk of the precipitation along the front will be confined to the Alaska Peninsula and the upslope areas of the Kilbuck Mountains, with a chance of some isolated rain showers across the Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Delta coast through tonight.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

A highly amplified longwave trough pattern persists across the Bering over the next couple of days. A strong vertically stacked low currently residing in the southwestern Bering strengthens as it tracks eastward towards the Pribilof Islands throughout the day today before pivoting southeast towards the AKPen tonight. This system supports widespread storm force winds, with an area of hurricane force winds, especially on the back side where an arctic airmass is wrapping southward. Strongest winds area expected to develop tonight and persist through early Friday morning and may range from 60 to 75 mph with gusts to 95 mph. Seas are expected to rapidly build between 35-50 ft tonight during peak wind. Anticipate gusty northwesterly winds to continue through Friday afternoon as the low crosses the Alaska Peninsula and into the Pacific. The associated front, now residing along the Central Bering, spanning from the Eastern Aleutians/Southern AKPen to the Pribilofs and areas northwest, is attached to a strong moisture feed, producing significant amounts of rainfall to the aforementioned areas today. This moisture will end up getting wrapped around the low, thus, rain showers will continue through tomorrow night until the low moves into the Pacific.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Saturday through Monday).

Gulf of Alaska - A strong low loops over the Central Gulf and exits into the North Pacific for Sunday. The Western Flank of the low lingers across the Eastern Bering. Its front sweeps over the Gulf through Sunday. Forecast confidence is low to moderate through Monday. Easterly high-end gale force with areas of storm force spread across the Northern Gulf for Saturday, turning North over the Western Gulf Sunday, diminishing Monday. Northwesterly High end gales over the Eastern Bering through Sunday. Seas to 22 feet, subsiding.

Bering Sea - A strong North Pacific low Sunday moves to the Central Aleutians by Monday. Forecast confidence moderate through Sunday then decreasing. High end gale force with areas of storm force winds spread across the western Aleutians for Sunday, and increase to storm force winds over the Central Bering and Southern Bering through Monday. Seas to 20 feet on the Bering side of the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula subsiding Sunday. Seas building to 20 feet on the Pacific side of the Central Aleutians for Monday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday).

The key features in the long term include a broad upper level trough over the Bering with a vertically stacked low over the southeastern Gulf. A weak upper level ridge attempts to nose in over the Alaska Yukon border Sunday. Meanwhile, a deepening low arrives over the western Aleutians and moves eastward, traversing the Chain on Monday. As things progress, the upper level trough deepens and extends farther south into the Gulf of Alaska, allowing the Bering low to move into the Gulf by Tuesday. As a result, widespread precipitation and gusty winds are likely across the Gulf waters and northern Gulf coast on Tuesday. Meanwhile over the Bering, a surge of colder, northerly flow looks to arrive for Tuesday and Wednesday.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . High Wind Warning: 185. MARINE . Hurricane Force Wind Warning: 155, 170-172, 413, 414. Storm Warning: 173-176, 179, 180, 412. Gale Warning: 150, 160, 165, 177, 178, 181, 185, 411. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . CB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KM MARINE/LONG TERM . MK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 1 mi59 min 51°F997.2 hPa (-0.4)
PILA2 - Pilot Rock, AK 27 mi59 min SE 14G16 46°F 996.1 hPa (+0.0)39°F
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 76 mi69 min N 19G21 43°F 47°F1 ft997.6 hPa (+0.0)40°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seward, AK2 mi66 minN 010.00 miLight Rain42°F39°F89%996.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAWD

Wind History from AWD (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Seward, Resurrection Bay, Alaska (2)
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Seward
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:25 AM AKDT     10.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:14 AM AKDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:53 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:11 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:16 PM AKDT     11.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:29 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:57 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:43 PM AKDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Day Harbor, Alaska
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Day Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:23 AM AKDT     10.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:15 AM AKDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:51 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:09 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:14 PM AKDT     11.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:28 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:56 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:44 PM AKDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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