Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kalifornsky, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:44AMSunset 6:45PM Saturday October 16, 2021 12:32 AM AKDT (08:32 UTC) Moonrise 4:52PMMoonset 1:08AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 333 Pm Akdt Fri Oct 15 2021
Tonight..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
Sat night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun and Sun night..N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Mon..N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kalifornsky, AK
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location: 60.51, -151.28     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 160110 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 510 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Southern Alaska continues to have weak synoptic flow as it remains in the base of a broad upper-level trough with multiple shortwaves embedded within it. Areas of light snow have been diminishing this morning across the Anchorage Bowl, Matanuska Valley, and the Susitna Valley as the weakening wave overhead drifts north and west. Satellite and surface observations indicating some clearing across Southcentral this afternoon, although low stratus is lingering from Cook Inlet to the Susitna Valley. Radar is still showing returns, mainly along the coast, with observations indicating the precipitation falling as a mix of rain/snow over the Kenai Peninsula/ Cook Inlet and rain along Prince William Sound.

Northwesterly flow remains in place across much of the Bering. As cold air flows across the relatively warm water surface, it is creating unstable conditions and resulting in puffy cumulus cloud streets as seen on satellite. A low pressure system is beginning to move into the western Bering with its associated front draped across the western Aleutians. This system is causing the pattern to amplify and build a ridge over the Bering. As a result, gusty northerly winds along with ,mixed rain/snow showers are being observed along the eastern Bering and southern Alaska Peninsula this afternoon.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models remain in good agreement on the movement of synoptic scale features for the short-term while model spread begins to grow by day 3. Models are struggling to key in on the strength and placement of a low that is moving into the Bering. While models mostly agree on a storm force low, the strength of winds for Shemya and Adak remain a concern. For the Southwest Coast, snow and blowing snow are expected as this front skirts the coastline. As this low moves towards the Gulf, the position and exact track will greatly affect where gale force and potentially storm force winds are likely to occur. Overall, forecast confidence is below average.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist. As skies clear and melting occurs, the potential for fog in the morning exists. However, confidence is low, but included some VCFG for the overnight hours.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3, tonight through Monday) .

An upper level trough will drift slowly east from the Cook Inlet towards the Prince William Sound overnight tonight. Widely scattered snow showers will continue to drift mainly to the east of the trough axis over the Chugach Mountains and Prince William Sound through Saturday as smaller perturbations rotate within the area of weak cyclonic flow aloft. Areas farther west along the Kenai Peninsula and MatSu Valleys should generally stay dry overnight. However, lingering moisture over areas that received snowfall through this morning could support areas of fog formation where skies become clear enough through Saturday morning.

Attention shifts to the next stronger storm system by Saturday afternoon, with a strong Bering low sending a front into the western Gulf by Saturday evening. Strong and gusty southeast winds will develop ahead of the front, including near the eastern shores of Kodiak Island. Low level temperatures on the leading edge of the precip shield will initially be supportive of snow for Kodiak City, but rapidly warming temperatures coupled with onshore flow over a still considerably warm sea surface should help transition snow over to all rain within the first few hours after initial onset.

By late Sunday morning, a triple point low is expected to form along the front roughly between Kodiak Island and the eastern AKPen along the frontal boundary as its northward progress slows to a crawl. Coastal rainfall and initially snow for inland areas of the eastern Kenai Peninsula will expand north during the course of the day on Sunday, with predominantly snow also expected to begin with for the Valdez area. As the front stalls out in the central Gulf, a continued onslaught of moist southeast flow will keep steady rain continuing along the north Gulf Coast through Monday morning, with a mix or a changeover to rain becoming increasingly likely farther inland for areas including Moose Pass, Cooper Landing and Portage Valley starting Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, the cross-barrier flow and consequent downslope warming/drying should easily be strong enough to keep areas west of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains dry for the duration of the event. Gusty winds will pick up along the Turnagain Arm on Sunday, but these winds will be drawn away from Anchorage down the Cook Inlet by a strong north to south pressure gradient.

On Monday, the complex low will drift into the southern Gulf, allowing winds near the coast to become more northeasterly. This should cut off the flow of moisture into the coastline and allow rain/snow to mostly come to an end by midday. Gale force winds will continue north of the low over much of the Gulf through Monday afternoon or later.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday afternoon) .

Weak upper level waves embedded in the cold, northerly flow will keep light rain/snow showers ongoing over the Y-K Delta before tapering off by this evening. A stronger wave coupled with upslope flow will also keep elevated snow over the Kilbucks through tonight. The shower activity will all come to end by early Saturday morning as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead with partly to mostly cloudy skies and mild conditions. Daytime temperatures for tomorrow will be much like today with mid 30s and low 40s and overnight lows in the low 20s over the valleys and low 30s along the coast.

Thereafter, a frontal boundary extending off a low from the Kamchatka Peninsula will bring increasing cloudiness, precipitation, and gusty easterly winds beginning Saturday afternoon and into Sunday. Precipitation will likely be all snow in the valleys and higher elevations. Along the coast, the snow may mix with or change to rain around mid afternoon Saturday as warmer air works in before changing back to all snow by Saturday evening. In addition to the winds, localized areas of blowing snow are also possible from Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning over the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay regions (please see the Winter Weather Advisories on our webpage for more details). As the main low exits to the the Gulf, precipitation will taper off along with decreasing winds as a ridge builds over the Southwest mainland for the rest of Sunday and into Monday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday afternoon) .

Unsettled conditions will continue for the weekend and into early next week for the entire forecast area. A deepening shortwave trough and well-developed low is moving south of the Kamchatka Peninsula. Based on the CIMSS MIMIC imagery, this storm system has a deep plume of moisture of more than 1” of precipitable water extending northeastward to the Bering Sea. The associated front will bring moderate to heavy rain, high end gale force winds, and elevated seas at times across along the Eastern and Central Aleutians, spreading northward over the Pribilofs. In the Central Aleutians near Atka and Adak, localized storm force winds with hurricane force gusts are also possible from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon as colder air works in along the backside of the low. (Please see the High Wind Watch on our webpage for more details).

Winds are expected to lower to small crafts and continue to funnel through the gaps and passes with decreasing waves through Sunday night and into early Monday morning as the low moves into the Gulf. A brief break will commence as a ridge builds over the Bering in response to another storm system developing near the Kamchatka Peninsula and taking a similar track with rain and wind returning on Monday afternoon.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday).

Bering/Aleutians:

Forecast confidence remains above average during the 3-5 day period as guidance shows similar solutions in the placement and intensity of synoptic scale features. Widespread gale force winds are expected across the western and central Bering Sea on Monday as a frontal system moves through. Widespread northwesterly gale force winds are expected across the western and central Bering in the wake of the front on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds are expected to remain below gale force across the far eastern Bering Sea and Bristol Bay. Large long period swell of 20-25ft is expected across the central Bering Sea on Tuesday and Wednesday. This large swell will gradually abate from west to east on Wednesday.

Gulf of Alaska:

Forecast confidence overall remains above average during the 3-5 day period as guidance shows similar solutions with respect to the placement and intensity of synoptic scale features. Some differences exist with respect to the fine details of a barrier jet along the north Gulf Coast on Monday and Tuesday. Overall, the barrier jet is expected to strengthen on Monday and begin easing on Tuesday. Widespread gale force winds with possible localized areas of storm force winds are likely along the coastal waters along the northern Gulf. These winds will then begin to ease on Tuesday from south to north. Large southeasterly long period swell of 20-25ft is possible across the northern Gulf on Monday and Tuesday. This large long period swell will abate on Wednesday from south to north.

Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday).

A cool and wet pattern is expected for Southcentral Alaska during the extended period as teleconnections support broad upper level troughing across the northern Bering Sea extending southeastward into Southcentral Alaska. The dominant trough-axis is expected to remain southwest of the Kenai Peninsula which will allow for moist onshore flow across Southcentral. Closer to the surface, a weakening low pressure system in the western Gulf will drift northwestward to over Southwest Alaska on Tuesday and Wednesday. Forecast confidence is low with respect to the fine details of this low as guidance shows significant discrepancies between the placement and intensity of the low centers. However, this general trend will allow for moisture to move from the Gulf and into Southcentral. Due to cooler air in place from the upper level trough, a cold on and off light rain is expected across the lower elevations of Southcentral during this period. This cold rain may mix with snow at times during the nighttime hours. Snow will be expected in the higher elevations of the Chugach as temperatures will remain cold enough in those regions. However, forecast confidence remains low at this time with respect to the exact snowfall amounts. For the Bering/Aleutians, a cloudy and cool pattern is expected during the extended period as broad upper level troughing will continue to promote cold air advection across the region. Ample shower activity is expected during this period over the Bering/Aleutians as cold air advection over the warmer sea surface temperatures is favorable for convection.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . High Wind Watch: 187. Winter Weather Advisory: 155, 161.

MARINE . Storm Warning: 175, 177, 178, 185, 413. Gale Warning: 130-138, 150-174, 176, 179-181, 352, 411, 412, 414.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . NS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . AS SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MF MARINE/LONG TERM . ED


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 14 mi44 min NNE 8G12 39°F 47°F1010 hPa
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 63 mi62 min NE 7 1008 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK4 mi39 minN 010.00 miOvercast33°F30°F89%1010.3 hPa
Soldotna, AK13 mi36 minN 010.00 miOvercast31°F29°F92%1011.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEN

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E4E5E5E5NE4NE5NE6NE6NE5NE5NE6NE6NE7NE9N6NE6NE6E3NW3NW40N50
1 day ago000000000000SW6SW6SW5SW4SE4NW3SE4SE5S5S4NE4E4
2 days agoNE30000S500E30NE4NE5N3N7N7N7N7N7N7N8NE5NE5NE6NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Kenai River entrance, Alaska
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Kenai River entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:50 AM AKDT     18.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:08 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:45 AM AKDT     1.81 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 02:52 PM AKDT     20.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 06:51 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:12 PM AKDT     3.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Nikiski, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Nikiski
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:13 AM AKDT     18.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:08 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:42 AM AKDT     1.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:50 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 03:00 PM AKDT     20.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 06:52 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:10 PM AKDT     3.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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