Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Knik River, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 9:51AMSunset 4:27PM Sunday January 16, 2022 3:24 PM AKST (00:24 UTC) Moonrise 2:06PMMoonset 10:26AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 342 Am Akst Sun Jan 16 2022
Today..W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Gusts to 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon..W wind 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night and Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knik River, AK
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location: 61.36, -149     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 161406 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 506 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

An upper level low is currently moving across Southcentral with the center moving across the northern Kenai Peninsula this morning. This upper level low was responsible for bringing much of Southcentral the fresh snowfall yesterday. NWS Anchorage recorded a snowfall of 2.5" from this past event bringing the snow depth up to 16". Overall, from the storm reports we received it looks like there was anywhere from 1 to 2 inches on the northern Kenai Peninsula near Kenai/Soldotna to Sterling, 2 to 4 inches across the Anchorage Bowl with 3 to 6 inches on the Anchorage Hillside and Eagle River. Similar amounts to the Anchorage Hillside and Eagle River were generally reported for the Matanuska Valley from this event. All of the snow has virtually come to an end across the Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Bowl with some partial clearing for these areas. Talkeetna and Skwentna in the Susitna Valley as well as Palmer to Wasilla were still reporting some light snow overnight as the upper level low continues moving eastward. Snow was also falling across eastern Prince William Sound including Valdez for much of the night. Cordova was mostly rain for much of the event but observations after midnight show a rain/snow mix falling. Temperatures area-wide are once again mostly in the 20s with a few pockets of low 30s. Copper River Basin remains the cold spot with temperatures ranging from single numbers to as high as the upper teens near Paxson, though, Gulkana has a stratus deck nearby but temperatures were still staying below zero. Kodiak was observing mostly clear skies and temperatures around freezing.

Southwest Alaska remains fairly quiet with some snow showers continuing mainly across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley as the upper level low continues transiting eastward. Bethel was reporting some fog though this has had not impact on the visibility as of this writing. Temperatures across Southwest mostly range from teens to 20s with the 20s more so over Bristol Bay and south along the Alaska Peninsula.

A storm force low continues spinning south of the Aleutian Chain this morning with its front slowly moving northward through the Bering. Shemya observed 55 knot winds yesterday with the front as it pushed through. The front is now bringing Dutch Harbor gusty southeasterlies this morning with easterly winds increasing for the Pribilofs as the front approaches. Cold Bay was also observing increasing southeasterly winds this morning of 15 to 25 kts so far. Heavy freezing spray continues along the ice edge southwest of Saint Matthew Island as winds remain northeasterly.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models remain in overall great synoptic agreement out through Sun night. Models begin to diverge on an upper level shortwave that will be moving northward from the North Pacific towards the Central Aleutians late Sunday night and into Monday morning. The NAM seems to be the outlier on this upper level shortwave showing a more concentric and closed off upper level low while the GFS/Canadian-NH/EC keep it an open wave/open upper level trough as it moves northward into the Bering. They also disagree on the placement and timing of the evolution of this shortwave as it moves eastward through Tuesday. Therefore, this will have sensible weather impacts as it moves along the Eastern Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula. Also, believe it or not, models are in better agreement on a secondary upper level shortwave that will round the base of the trough Monday through Monday night. At the surface, models are also in decent agreement on a surface low developing and moving northwestward to somewhere south of Shemya Tue morning. Models all agree that this upper level shortwave will absorb/phase with the energy of the current storm system spinning there but disagree on the timing with how fast this process will occur. For Southcentral, while model guidance mostly agrees on the upper level pattern, determining how clear areas will get or if there will be fog/low stratus were the forecast challenges this forecast package. In turn, this will impact the temperature forecast as well.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions are expected to persist through around 17/02z. After 17/02z, expecting ceilings to lower as the afternoon progresses coming down to IFR ceilings. Expecting IFR ceilings for for most of the overnight time frame, though, LIFR ceilings are possible over the terminal. Expecting any LIFR/IFR ceilings to slowly rise Monday morning back to VFR conditions, though, this may be a slow progression. Light southerly winds will become northerly this afternoon and remain northerly through the remainder of the TAF package.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Tuesday night) .

A large upper level low sitting over Southcentral this morning will exit slowly eastward through the day. Some snow showers will linger through the morning hours, but expect little or no additional accumulation. Offshore flow, subsidence, and tight pressure gradients on the back side of the low will lead to some localized gap winds along the coast, namely for Seward/Resurrection Bay, Whittier/Passage Canal, and the Valdez coastal waters. These winds will be short-lived, dying down tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds over Southcentral and the Gulf.

Cooler temperatures will settle in across the region today through tonight. However, areas of low clouds will persist and limit how much temperatures drop. The most likely areas for low clouds to settle in include northern Cook Inlet, northwestern Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the southern Mat-Su. Weak northwest flow behind the exiting low will push remaining low level moisture/clouds up against the west side of the mountains. Secondarily, expect low clouds in the Copper River Basin, where partial clearing has already led to some areas of stratus early this morning. As the upper ridge builds overhead tonight, subsidence aloft will increase leading to increasing stability in the low levels. Thus, would expect areas of fog to form, especially where there are light winds and breaks in the clouds. Once again, the northern Cook Inlet region and Anchorage area seems the most likely to see fog. There won't be any big changes to the atmosphere until Tuesday, so fog and low clouds will linger.

The upper level ridge will gradually shift eastward Monday night through Tuesday night, allowing systems to approach from the south and west. Initially, these features look pretty weak. While confidence is not high, it looks like a series of short-waves will track across the western Gulf/Kodiak Island Monday night-Tuesday and continue into Southcentral Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday night. Light snow is likely as these move through. A warm front moving up from the Pacific will lead to a changeover to rain on Kodiak Island sometime Tuesday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today through Monday night) .

A lobe of enhanced vorticity extending off an elongated upper- level low moving across Southcentral continues to support light snow showers over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley this morning. Snow will taper off through the morning hours as the upper low exits eastward and is replaced by a shortwave ridge. Southwest Alaska begins to dry out, at least in terms of precipitation, as this ridging overspreads the region today. Low stratus will continue to linger, with a few pockets of clearer skies, before a front moving north from the Bering begins to impinge on the Southwest coast on Sunday night. Only a light dusting of snow is now expected from this system, with the heaviest accumulations, around half an inch, expected along the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Snow amounts decrease quickly to zero inland.

Monday night into Tuesday, another front begins to push northward across the eastern Bering into Southwest Alaska. A compact upper-level low drives northward in tandem with the front, lending potential for this next round of snow to be more impactful.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Today through Monday night) .

A strong frontal system connected to a North Pacific low will continue to be the main weather driver for the Bering and Aleutians through the short term. Gales arc along the front north of the Aleutians this morning, with a swath of storm force winds north of Attu. The Pribilofs also see snow today as the front pushes north, turning to rain tonight as precipitation begins to taper off. Various weak lows race northward across the Aleutians as they circle the larger, deeper low center off the western Aleutians, inducing intermittent periods of gustier winds and rain showers. Rain and gusty southerly winds push into the eastern Aleutians later this morning and reach the AKPEN by tomorrow morning. Throughout the forecast period, a persistent swath of northeasterly gales is present over the north and western Bering as it produces heavy freezing spray conditions.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Tuesday through Thursday).

Gulf of Alaska . High pressure moves onshore over Southeast Alaska for Wednesday. A well developed low enters the Western Gulf Wednesday and moves to the North Gulf Coast by Thursday. Its front extends across the Gulf through Thursday. Forecast confidence is good. Gusty winds spread over the Gulf, increasing to Easterly gales Wednesday, diminishing Thursday. Seas build to 15 feet Wednesday, subsiding Thursday.

Aleutians / Bering . A well developed low South of Amchitka retrogresses South of Kamchatka for Thursday. Forecast confidence is mixed with the low's movement. Broad low pressure remains in place South of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through Thursday. Arctic high pressure holds over the Russian Far East. Widespread gales extend across the Central and Western Aleutians and Bering. Seas to 22 feet, subsiding from East to West by Thursday.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday) .

Latest model guidance is in reasonable agreement with the evolution and progression of synoptic scale features into early next week. However, models begin to diverge significantly with the specific details towards the end of the period. For most of the southern mainland, high pressure will give way to a brief period of dry weather and seasonal temperatures before a wet pattern returns Wednesday and onward. There is decent consistency for a North Pacific low tracking south of the Alaska Peninsula into or near the Gulf, with another low following closely behind later next week. Models are keying in on a frontal boundary extending from the center of the first North Pacific low, which will bring some warmer air, precipitation, and wind from Kodiak Island northward to the southern mainland. If this scenario materializes, there is a potential that a barrier jet may develop along the northern Gulf coast from Prince William Sound to the Copper River Delta area. Uncertainty emerges in the track, position, and timing of these systems. The GFS continues to be the wettest compared to the other drier solutions. Out west, a broad trough will settle just south of the Aleutians while weak, embedded shortwaves pivot around the eastern periphery of the aforementioned trough. This will bring a wintry mix of rain/snow and gusty winds along the southern portion of the Aleutians and into the Bering Sea.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storm Warning 411 Gale Warning 412 413 170 172 173 178 185 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 411 412 414 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . MV SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . SEB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CQ MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/MF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 48 mi55 min 0G1.9 27°F 30°F1014 hPa
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 54 mi95 min W 16G19 33°F 40°F1 ft1009.8 hPa (+1.3)22°F
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 89 mi55 min 40°F1012.4 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Last 24 hrSW4
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NE7
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palmer, Palmer Municipal Airport, AK18 mi32 minNNW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy24°F18°F77%1013.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAAQ

Wind History from AAQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrSW10E5N4N50N4W6NW3N4N4N7N7N6N50N4N6N5N6N6N7N5NW5NW3
1 day agoNE6N8N9N9N8N8N7N5N4N6N6N7N7N8N9N11N10N9NE6N7N6N10N11N9
2 days ago5E12
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Tide / Current Tables for Sunrise, Turnagain Arm, Alaska
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Sunrise
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:05 AM AKST     -1.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:28 AM AKST     31.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:50 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:20 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:05 PM AKST     6.61 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:15 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:25 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:47 PM AKST     32.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Sunrise, Turnagain Arm, Alaska, Tide feet
12
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7
1
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2.3
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-1
3
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3.8
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13.5
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21.5
6
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27.5
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31.2
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31.3
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28.2
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23.3
11
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18.1
12
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13
1
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8.9
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6.6
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10.6
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19.3
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25.8
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30.7
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32.1
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29.7
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25.1
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19.9
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14.8


Tide / Current Tables for Sunrise, Turnagain Arm #11, Alaska
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Sunrise
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:05 AM AKST     -1.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:28 AM AKST     31.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:50 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:20 AM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:05 PM AKST     6.61 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:15 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:25 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:47 PM AKST     32.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Sunrise, Turnagain Arm #11, Alaska, Tide feet
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2.3
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3.8
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13.5
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31.2
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30.7
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32.1
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19.9
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14.8


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