Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Knik-Fairview, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 7:48PM Sunday September 26, 2021 11:58 PM AKDT (07:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:56PMMoonset 2:34PM Illumination 66% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 358 Pm Akdt Sun Sep 26 2021
Tonight..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu through Fri..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knik-Fairview, AK
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location: 61.38, -149.8     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 270505 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 905 PM AKDT Sun Sep 26 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. Two deep upper level lows are located along the Aleutians and over the far northeast Pacific are supported by a seasonably strong subtropical jet along the southern tier of our forecast area. In between the lows, a ridge is positioned over the central Bering Sea/Aleutians, moving eastward toward the southern mainland of Alaska. A separate short-wave ridge in the weaker northern stream flow is building from Southwest Alaska and the Interior southeastward into Southcentral. As a result of the extensive ridging, it was a chilly morning across southern Alaska under mostly clear skies. There was some localized fog from the Matanuska Valley to Anchorage and the western Kenai Peninsula, but the sun has quickly burned this off. Tight pressure gradients between a surface high over the Interior and the northeast Pacific low are leading to offshore flow over Southcentral with gap winds along the coast. A weak short-wave trough out ahead of the aforementioned ridge is dropping south across the Prince William Sound region, accompanied by weak cold air advection. These are serving to strengthen the gap winds.

The storm along the Aleutians is bottoming out this morning as it occludes and becomes vertically stacked. The frontal system is spreading quickly north and east from the low center, accompanied by gale force winds and rain.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are in excellent agreement with the large scale pattern over the next few days. There are some minor positional differences with low moving into the Gulf, but most solutions show a southward trend in low track across the Gulf. This would mean less impacts from wind/wave over the northern Gulf waters and Cook Inlet.

Models all depict a potent storm developing over the northern Bering Sea on Wednesday as an upper low and multiple strong short-waves dive out of eastern Russia. There are certainly differences in the details of storm track and depth. However, with strong forcing favoring rapid deepening of a surface cyclone, will trend the forecast toward the stronger side of guidance.

AVIATION. PANC . With another clear night on tap, there is potential for low clouds and/or fog to develop in the vicinity of the terminal Monday morning. However, the low level flow supports keeping this east of the terminal. If anything were to move over the terminal, it would brief in nature.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Sunday afternoon through Wednesday) .

Another nice sunny day is expected on Monday as a weak shortwave ridge moves over the area from the west. Fog is possible in the morning due to high levels of surface moisture left over from the last storm, clear skies overnight, and weak riding. Gusty winds will continue through the morning hours through Seward, Valdez and Whittier. Overnight Monday an occluding low will pass over the AKPen and into the western Gulf. This system has continued its trend towards weaker and weaker solutions with less baroclinicity and faster occlusion. As such, gales are no longer expected over the marine areas with a low track that is farther to the south and more progressive. Gusty winds and moderate rain are still likely for Kodiak Island Monday night through Tuesday. With the track being farther to the south, precipitation looks less likely for the mainland, though broad southeasterly flow aloft will increase cloud cover Tuesday and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

A weak wave transiting the Kuskokwim Delta Coast this afternoon will bring a brief chance for showers. Otherwise quiet conditions and clear skies are in place across Southwest today with a ridge of high pressure overhead. By Monday afternoon, a front associated with a Bering low tracks eastward arriving over the southern Alaska Peninsula. Rain will spread in late Monday before dissipating by the evening as the low quickly moves into the Gulf Monday night. Gusty offshore winds can be expected as the low exits the area, especially along coastal locations. Conditions remain relatively quiet until the next system arrives Tuesday as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest. This will bring a surge of colder air to the Kuskokwim Delta Coast late Tuesday into early Wednesday. There is a chance for snow and possibly a rain/snow mix early Wednesday, though little accumulation is expected.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A ridge of high pressure has kept conditions mostly quiet across the eastern Bering. Farther west, a low centered near Shemya is spreading a front eastward across the Aleutians, bringing rain and gusty southerly flow. As the low tracks eastward across the southern Bering, winds will shift to northerly on the backside of the low, while showers can be expected to persist across the western Bering through Monday night. As the low moves into the Gulf for Tuesday, an upper level wave arrives over the central Bering, introducing the chance for rain over the Pribilofs Tuesday afternoon. Additionally, as a stronger upper level trough moves into the Bering from the north early Wednesday, a deepening surface low will traverse the Bering from west to east, introducing a much colder airmass. This will result in a more active pattern for the end of the week.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday).

Gales and large seas up to 16 ft over the Gulf will gradually subside by Wed evening. Meanwhile, a more potent large-scale system over the Bering will grab headlines later in the week. A large stacked low over the northwest Bering will generate widespread gales and large waves up to 25 ft across the central and southern Bering Sea starting Wed morning into Thu evening, with the potential of storm force winds passing through there and much stronger gusts along the gaps and passes. A primary strong front from the low will direct gales to the western Gulf beginning Thu morning before building across the northern Gulf into Fri. As the front and low shifts across the Bering and through Southwest AK, strong winds and gales will also push through the Southwest coast Thu night and Bristol Bay Fri morning.

Long-Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday).

Latest model solutions entertain a substantial stacked Bering low producing strong and gusty winds, increased rain and clouds building across the Bering/Aleutians through the Gulf of Alaska from Thu through Sun. A broad jetstream with maximum jet streak of 165 kt will extend from the Bering/Aleutians through the western Gulf on Thu, then diverges as it shifts more through the eastern Gulf on Thu night. Subsequently, another strong jet stream moves above the western Bering building through the Aleutians into Sun night. Over Southwest and Southcentral, strong east to southeast winds will become evident as the front moves closer to the Southwest Coast, and when the Bering low migrates southeastward through the southern Bering leading winds to enter from the north across Southwest beginning Fri morning. Meanwhile, a secondary low forms over Bristol Bay (mentioned in the Marine Discussion) and races toward the Cook Inlet Thu night, bringing increased moisture and clouds through Kodiak Island, Prince William Sound, Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet. More active weather conditions from the low will enter Southcentral between Fri and Sun. Essentially, this active pattern will bring increased mixed snow/rain, strong winds and much higher gusts for the region.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning: 170-179 411-414.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . SEB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . CJ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KO MARINE/LONG TERM . CB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 11 mi64 min ESE 6 G 8 35°F 48°F1006.4 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 89 mi64 min 51°F1005.3 hPa
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 90 mi68 min W 18 G 21 46°F 50°F1 ft1003 hPa (+0.0)31°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK8 mi62 minNE 310.00 miFair33°F28°F80%1005.8 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK12 mi65 minE 310.00 miFair33°F25°F72%1006.4 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK15 mi62 minSE 510.00 miFair36°F25°F64%1007.3 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK16 mi65 minSE 410.00 miFair34°F28°F79%1006.6 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK18 mi65 minSSE 710.00 miFair34°F28°F79%1006.3 hPa
Wasilla, Wasilla Airport, AK23 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair27°F26°F96%1007.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAED

Wind History from AED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmN3N5CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5CalmE4CalmCalmW4CalmCalmNE4NE3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE7NE4NE5N6E5N5N4NE6NE5E5CalmSE3CalmNE3NE3NE3
2 days agoNW11NW11
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S4CalmS4S3CalmCalmS4S4S4CalmW5W6W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:10 AM AKDT     4.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:57 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:51 AM AKDT     25.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:56 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:29 PM AKDT     10.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:42 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:15 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:46 PM AKDT     26.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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26.923.719.314.6106.44.55.59.515.320.824.525.424.121.418.315.212.210.310.41317.522.325.7

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:10 AM AKDT     1.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:57 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:02 PM AKDT     25.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:56 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:12 PM AKDT     8.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:42 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:15 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:29 PM AKDT     26.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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26.222.116.911.97.84.51.94.111.117.72224.625.824.721.717.813.510.28.49.915.520.624.226

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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