Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 10:13 PM Moonrise 4:27 AM   Moonset 2:18 PM

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PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tonight - N winds 20 kt. Thu - N winds 10 kt. Thu night - N winds 10 kt. Fri - N winds 5 kt. Fri night - N winds 10 kt. Sat - N winds 15 kt. Sun - N winds 20 kt.

PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tonight - N winds 20 kt. Thu - N winds 10 kt. Thu night - N winds 10 kt. Fri - N winds 5 kt. Fri night - N winds 10 kt. Sat - N winds 15 kt. Sun - N winds 20 kt.

FXAK69 PAFG 022208 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 208 PM AKDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Upper-air analysis this afternoon is showing a trough of low pressure moving from the Alaska Peninsula into the southern Gulf of Alaska. At the same time, a deep trough is moving into the western Bering Sea this afternoon. To the north, in the Arctic Ocean, there is a low pressure system in the eastern half with high pressure over the western half. The low pressure system is impacting more of the Northern Slope than the high pressure is at this time. Not much change to the upper-air pattern as we move further into the weened and into next week for the Northern Slope. The same cannot be said about the systems moving through the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska.
The first trough will dig southeast into the Pacific Northwest by early Saturday morning while the second trough will be approaching the Alaska Peninsula. This secondary trough will be deeper than average at around 512mb. This low will eventually push into the Gulf of Alaska late weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION
The pattern will be favorable for the Northern Slope to remain much cooler than normal with some flurries or light snow and fog to remain in place through the weekend. Precipitation chances will increase across the Northern Slope towards late weekend as scattered rain and snow showers will develop from pretty much the YK Delta to far northeast Alaska. Increased precipitation chances will remain in place heading into the start of next week.

The West Coast will remain dry and cold with increasing wind as we head into the weekend. Winds really increase by Saturday from the Lisburne Peninsula south through the Seward Peninsula and into the Norton Sound. While the West Coast region will remain dry through Friday, the same energy that will bring increased chances to the north will bring increased chances of precipitation through the day Saturday and Sunday morning. There was some internal discussion today about the potential for some blowing snow across the West Coast that could lead to some headlines later this weekend, however, due to some of the warmer weather across this area, it might be hard to get some blowing snow out there that could prevent any headlines later this weekend.

The Western Interior will generally remain dry and cold through the weekend with increasing precipitation chances from the same energy impacting the rest of the area. The Eastern Interior will be drier and slightly warmer as we move into the weekend. In addition, winds will increase late Friday and into Saturday for the Alaska Range and Delta Junction area as strong south winds will set up. There will also be some increased precipitation potential through much of the weekend and even into next week as the deep trough moves through the Gulf of Alaska. There was some thought that with the increased rainfall potential through early next week across the interior along with the melting snow and ice break up could lead to some additional flooding concerns. Overall, I think it could be something to watch, but not something to go all in right now as there is some uncertainty about how much precipitation we will get. So something we will keep our eyes on over the next few days.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
Main fire weather concern will be the potential for some moderate southerly Chinook winds developing across the Alaska Range late Friday that will continue into Saturday before diminishing by Saturday night and into Sunday. South winds will gust to around 25 to 30 mph along the north side of the Alaska Range by Friday afternoon, increasing to around 40 mph by Friday night into Saturday morning. At the same time, a thermal low pressure trough will be in the process of moving northward into the Alaska Range on Friday.
This will help temperatures increase and help RH values fall to around the 30 percent range. Mixing the warmer temperatures, lower RH values, and the gusty winds will bring near Red Flag conditions from the Delta Junction south from Friday afternoon into at least Saturday morning with a higher potential for Red Flag conditions through the day Saturday.

HYDROLOGY
The Flood Watch for the Tanana River near Manley Hot Springs was cancelled this morning as the river at the Manley HS Slough went from around 14.5 ft to 11.24 ft in a day. Because of this, it appears that the ice jam is no longer expected to pose a threat.

Meanwhile, there remains some concern still for the Yukon River upstream of Yukon. An observer said that the river broke up yesterday afternoon and ice began flowing. It was reported that within a few hours the river had stopped flowing and an ice jam had formed. The Yukon rose to near mid-summer high levels and was continuing to rise slowly. With the ice still in place this morning, we have kept the SPS in place for the Fortymile Country that includes Eagle, Chicken, and the Taylor Highway.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-810-811-856-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ817-851-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850-853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.

Carolyn Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:43 AM AKDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:11 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:27 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:17 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:12 PM AKDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:27 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Carolyn Island, Golovnin Bay, Norton Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

North Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:02 AM AKDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:22 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:18 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:31 PM AKDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:19 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North Bay, Stuart Island, Norton Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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