Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 10:16 PM Moonrise 3:26 AM   Moonset 3:25 PM

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PKZ805 Moses Point To Sledge Island Out To 15 Nm- 149 Pm Akdt Sat May 4 2024
.brisk wind advisory in effect through tonight - .
Tonight - N winds 25 kt. Sun - N winds 20 kt. Sun night - N winds 15 kt. Mon - NE winds 15 kt. Mon night - W winds 10 kt. Tue - W winds 15 kt. Tue night - N winds 10 kt. Wed - W winds 10 kt. Thu - W winds 10 kt.

FXAK69 PAFG 042137 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 137 PM AKDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS

An upper low over the Bering Sea will progress southeast into the Gulf of Alaska through Monday, while an upper low over the North Slope drops south across the Bering Strait into the Bering Sea by Tuesday. Weak upper ridging will continue across Interior Alaska, with embedded energy rotating north from the Gulf of Alaska low.
For the extended portion of the forecast, the upper low over the Bering Sea will slowly move southeast across the Aleutian Chain.
Spread in the the guidance increases from Thursday to Saturday, so forecast confidence lowers by that time. Weather across the region will be dictated by individual waves rotating around the main low, leading to further uncertainty. Overall, temperatures look to remain mild across the West Coast and Interior, and slowly warm up along the North Slope.

DISCUSSION

Temperatures look to remain mild across Interior Alaska through the next week. Temperatures will be coolest Monday and Tuesday as upper level energy moves across the region. The effect on temperatures looks minor, with around 5-10 degF of cooling.
Otherwise, temperatures look to remain in the mid 40s to upper 50s, with perhaps a few low 60s in the lee of the Alaska Range. Gusty Chinook winds will continue near Delta Junction into this evening, with winds dissipating overnight. Humidity values have been slow to fall with values around 30 percent. We will continue to monitor the elevated fire weather conditions for this area. Once we get through today, winds will decrease and humidity values are forecast to be higher. As for precipitation, spotty showers will be possible through Sunday, especially for the southeast zones near Northway. Shower activity will spread northwest across Interior Alaska by Monday and continue to lift northwest into Tuesday as a upper wave transverses the area. A secondary round of precipitation looks to follow suite from Thursday into Saturday, as another piece of energy rotates northward out of the Gulf of Alaska. The timing an exact track of this late week energy is uncertain at this time.

Winter weather continues along the North Slope through much of Sunday.
An Arctic low will continue to slide southwest across the North Slope with gusty winds, snow, low stratus and fog prevailing. High elevations of the Brooks Range have seen strong winds, with gusts in excess of 50 mph. Winds should subside by Monday night as the upper low moves into the Bering Strait. Temperatures look to remain cold through Monday, with highs in the single digits along the coast, to 20s near the mountains. Warmer weather will finally arrive for mid to late week, with highs in the 20s to 30s. Drier conditions are also expected during this period, with any snow remaining over the Lisburne Peninsula.

Strong winds will be the main concern for the next couple of days for the Lisburne Peninsula, south across the Bering Strait to near St. Lawrence Island. A tight gradient will keep strong northeasterly flow across the region, with wind gusts in excess of 40 mph expected to continue. Current observations are not indicate much blowing snow, but there could be localized areas of blowing snow with reduced visibility. As the upper system drops south into the Bering Sea, and then southeast into the Gulf of Alaska, the gradient will weaken and winds subside. As for precipitation, generally dry conditions are expected prevail along the West Coast, as the axis of energy will remain to the east. Temperatures look remain consistent, with 30s along the coast, and 40s inland.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



FIRE WEATHER

Near Red Flag conditions will continue near Delta Junction through this evening due to gusty Chinook winds and low humidity values.
Beyond this evening, humidity values look to remain near 30 percent through much of the several days, with values falling to near 25 percent by Wednesday into Friday. Winds look to remain light during this period. A few rain showers will also be possible Monday, and again by late week.

HYDROLOGY

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Tanana River from Salcha to Fairbanks due to high flows from snowmelt. A Flood Advisory also continues for the Tanana River near the Rosie Creek Subdivision, where minor street flooding continues. As of this afternoon, the Yukon River breakup is 50 miles upstream of Circle.
There is a 20 mile run of dense ice above the breakup front, and should arrive near Circle early Sunday morning if the breakup front does not stall. Small ice jams may be possible as the breakup front moves downstream leading to minor or moderate flooding.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ937-949.
Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-808>810.
Flood Watch for AKZ833.
Flood Watch for AKZ840-844.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-852.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-810-811-854-856-857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-814-815-850-853-858-860-861.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ817.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.

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