Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middles, KY
June 2, 2024 5:04 PM EDT (21:04 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:15 AM Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 2:31 AM Moonset 3:48 PM |
FXUS63 KJKL 021927 AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 327 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- An upper level disturbance approaching from the west will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region today, followed by a decrease in activity for tonight and Monday.
- After a relative lull in precipitation Monday night into Tuesday morning, the potential of showers and thunderstorms will again increase through mid week, with temperatures trending 5-10 degrees above normal.
- Temperatures will return to near seasonal averages by late in the week, with at least small rain chances lingering at times.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024
Shower and thunderstorm activity will slowly wane with the loss of daytime heating this evening, with weak westerly flow aloft as upper- level ridging builds over the area. Any amount of clearing will result in the formation of widespread patchy to areas of fog, some of which could be dense in the typically fog-prone sheltered valley locations. With high humidity expected, lows will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Despite upper-level ridging overhead Monday, a weak mid-level disturbance will combine with marginal instability to produce isolated to widely scattered rain showers and possibly a few afternoon thunderstorms, with the highest likelihood of seeing storms over the eastern Kentucky mountains bordering Virginia. With sun breaks in the afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 80s at most locations.
Upper-level ridge axis moves just east over the Appalachians and Upper Ohio River Valley Monday night, with increasing southerly flow ahead of the next disturbance. However, it appears any precipitation chances will arrive after the short-term period ends. Nevertheless, expect another night of patchy to widespread fog in the valleys, with lows falling into the upper 50s for most valley locations and lower to mid 60s elsewhere.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024
Fairly active pattern anticipated in the extended, with multiple rounds of rain in the forecast. The large scale pattern aloft will start off with a couple of troughs of low pressure in place over the western half of the CONUS. One trough will be moving on shore in far southwestern Canada and the Pacific Northwest Tuesday morning, with very weak, flat ridging in place between the two troughs extending southward into the extreme southwestern CONUS.
Another trough of low pressure will be spinning its wheels just offshore from northern New England, and will gradually make its way on out to sea i the northern Atlantic. A weak subtropical ridge will also be in place just off the southeastern CONUS, with weak, broad, flat ridging in place across northern Mexico and the western half of the Gulf of Mexico.
Our first weather maker will be the trough that will be moving eastward along the Canadian border from just north of Montana to begin the period. This trough will have a cold front extending southward from it, which will act as a trigger for showers and storms once it finally moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. We may see our first showers and storms, however, in the moist and unstable warm sector of the northern cyclone ahead of the approaching cold front on Tuesday. This activity will steadily increase in coverage Wednesday and Wednesday night, as the surface front approaches and then moves across the region. Rain chances should peak Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening, before tapering off late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as the front moves off to our east.
The parent trough will initially move across southern Canada, but will slow and strengthen Wednesday night, producing a strong short wave that is progged to break off from the original parent trough.
This second area of low pressure is forecast to itself strengthen as it moves through the Great Lakes and into New England toward the end of week. Waves of energy associated with this second system will move over our area Thursday and Friday, and will keep scattered showers and isolated storms in the area to finish out the week and on into the upcoming weekend.
Temperatures will be average to just a bit above average in the extended, with the first half of the period being much warmer before the arrival of the aforementioned upper troughs. Highs the first few days will top out in the 80s, with closer to normal values in the upper 70s on tap Friday through Sunday. Nightly lows will be mild and in the mid to upper 60s the first couple of nights, but should level off at near normal values in the mid 50s to lower 60s the rest of the period. No real weathers concerns in the extended at this time, although the WPC is still carrying a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for our region for Wednesday and Wednesday night, which is low confidence at this time considering how far out in time the part of the forecast still is.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024
An area of showers is moving across the forecast area producing MVFR/IFR cigs currently. These showers will continue to move east and out of the area over the next couple of hours. However, with partial clearing will come increased destabilization and the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. KSME and KLOZ are the mostly likely areas to see thunderstorms, but any TAF site will be susceptible to TSRA with brief/temporary reductions to IFR or lower conditions. What's left of showers and thunderstorms are expected to die out during the evening, and clouds should begin to decrease. This will set us up for fog and low clouds developing late tonight, resulting in IFR or worse conditions for most locations.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 327 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- An upper level disturbance approaching from the west will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region today, followed by a decrease in activity for tonight and Monday.
- After a relative lull in precipitation Monday night into Tuesday morning, the potential of showers and thunderstorms will again increase through mid week, with temperatures trending 5-10 degrees above normal.
- Temperatures will return to near seasonal averages by late in the week, with at least small rain chances lingering at times.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024
Shower and thunderstorm activity will slowly wane with the loss of daytime heating this evening, with weak westerly flow aloft as upper- level ridging builds over the area. Any amount of clearing will result in the formation of widespread patchy to areas of fog, some of which could be dense in the typically fog-prone sheltered valley locations. With high humidity expected, lows will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Despite upper-level ridging overhead Monday, a weak mid-level disturbance will combine with marginal instability to produce isolated to widely scattered rain showers and possibly a few afternoon thunderstorms, with the highest likelihood of seeing storms over the eastern Kentucky mountains bordering Virginia. With sun breaks in the afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 80s at most locations.
Upper-level ridge axis moves just east over the Appalachians and Upper Ohio River Valley Monday night, with increasing southerly flow ahead of the next disturbance. However, it appears any precipitation chances will arrive after the short-term period ends. Nevertheless, expect another night of patchy to widespread fog in the valleys, with lows falling into the upper 50s for most valley locations and lower to mid 60s elsewhere.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024
Fairly active pattern anticipated in the extended, with multiple rounds of rain in the forecast. The large scale pattern aloft will start off with a couple of troughs of low pressure in place over the western half of the CONUS. One trough will be moving on shore in far southwestern Canada and the Pacific Northwest Tuesday morning, with very weak, flat ridging in place between the two troughs extending southward into the extreme southwestern CONUS.
Another trough of low pressure will be spinning its wheels just offshore from northern New England, and will gradually make its way on out to sea i the northern Atlantic. A weak subtropical ridge will also be in place just off the southeastern CONUS, with weak, broad, flat ridging in place across northern Mexico and the western half of the Gulf of Mexico.
Our first weather maker will be the trough that will be moving eastward along the Canadian border from just north of Montana to begin the period. This trough will have a cold front extending southward from it, which will act as a trigger for showers and storms once it finally moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. We may see our first showers and storms, however, in the moist and unstable warm sector of the northern cyclone ahead of the approaching cold front on Tuesday. This activity will steadily increase in coverage Wednesday and Wednesday night, as the surface front approaches and then moves across the region. Rain chances should peak Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening, before tapering off late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as the front moves off to our east.
The parent trough will initially move across southern Canada, but will slow and strengthen Wednesday night, producing a strong short wave that is progged to break off from the original parent trough.
This second area of low pressure is forecast to itself strengthen as it moves through the Great Lakes and into New England toward the end of week. Waves of energy associated with this second system will move over our area Thursday and Friday, and will keep scattered showers and isolated storms in the area to finish out the week and on into the upcoming weekend.
Temperatures will be average to just a bit above average in the extended, with the first half of the period being much warmer before the arrival of the aforementioned upper troughs. Highs the first few days will top out in the 80s, with closer to normal values in the upper 70s on tap Friday through Sunday. Nightly lows will be mild and in the mid to upper 60s the first couple of nights, but should level off at near normal values in the mid 50s to lower 60s the rest of the period. No real weathers concerns in the extended at this time, although the WPC is still carrying a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for our region for Wednesday and Wednesday night, which is low confidence at this time considering how far out in time the part of the forecast still is.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024
An area of showers is moving across the forecast area producing MVFR/IFR cigs currently. These showers will continue to move east and out of the area over the next couple of hours. However, with partial clearing will come increased destabilization and the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. KSME and KLOZ are the mostly likely areas to see thunderstorms, but any TAF site will be susceptible to TSRA with brief/temporary reductions to IFR or lower conditions. What's left of showers and thunderstorms are expected to die out during the evening, and clouds should begin to decrease. This will set us up for fog and low clouds developing late tonight, resulting in IFR or worse conditions for most locations.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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