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FXUS63 KJKL 270645 AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 245 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- More clouds than sun much of today, with decreasing clouds late in the afternoon

- Becoming very warm tomorrow and lasting at least through the middle of the week.

- Showers and thunderstorms at times next week, primarily Monday night and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT SAT APR 27 2024

Plenty of clouds around this morning as mid-and-upper level moisture streams in on the western edge of a ridge centered over the Carolinas. At the surface, a warm front is approaching the forecast area. Overcast skies are forecast to give way to mainly clear skies this evening and especially overnight as the aforementioned warm front lifts north and the best moisture aloft becomes focus west of the Mississippi. As a result of clearing skies, not to mention the 500mb ridge axis nearly overhead, some fog is expected in the valleys Saturday night.

500-mb heights continue to rise on Sunday along with continued warm air advection aloft. This, along with mainly clear skies and well- mixed soundings, increases confidence in the 99th percentile high temperature forecast. Forecast highs in the low-to-mid 80s are expected. I debated brining these temperature down 2 to 3 degrees, thus matching the 90th percentile. However, the environment favors the very mild forecast highs as noted above.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT SAT APR 27 2024

Ridging aloft will yield to a transiting short wave trough during the first 24 hours of the extended. Thereafter, flow aloft is generally weak and zonal, increasing again and taking on a slight southwesterly flavor at the end of the period as another storms system approaches from the west, reaching the Great Plains by Friday. Otherwise, a series of disturbances tracking through weak flow across the region will bring an occasional threat of unsettled weather to the area, with a distinct diurnal flavor to each round.

Sensible weather features a typical spring-like but warm period of weather with an occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will run above our normal lower 70s with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s, except around 80 on Tuesday with rain and clouds, and mid 70s on Friday, again with rain and clouds expected. Overnight lows will average slightly closer to our normal upper 40s, dropping to between the mid 50s and lower 60s each night.

There are no obvious or definite threats with respect to hazardous weather. The threat of thunderstorms will be present any time there is a threat of rain. There is ample instability each afternoon for storms to fire from Tuesday through Friday. However, at this time model guidance suggests there will be a lack of shear needed for more organized convection. Thus we very well may be looking at pulser type thunderstorms and/or possibly some clusters where shear happens to be at marginal levels. Of course, anytime thunderstorms develop through the spring, and especially summer, there is the chance that a storm or two could become strong in nature. With respect to hydro, we are running at or below normal for seasonal rainfall and the area has finally reached a full green state. Thus it would be hard to imagine any issues with average QPF of around a half inch or less for the entire week, not taking into account isolated or locally higher totals being possible with any thunderstorms. With relatively weak wind fields aloft and no major storm systems to deal with, not seeing any issues with respect to winds through the period. Probabilistic ensemble solutions support this general line of thinking with respect to hazards as well.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT APR 27 2024

Plenty of clouds around through the critical TAF period, with a warm front lifting into eastern Kentucky. In the vicinity is also a strong low level jet, which will lift north-northeast over the next 6 hours or so.

Skies are favored to scatter out later today, followed by further improvement very late in this TAF period as a ridge amplifies. As the ridge amplifies, there is a non-zero LLWS concern primarily at KSME and KLOZ just beyond this TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

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