Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:54 PM Moonrise 2:25 AM   Moonset 3:48 PM

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FXUS61 KILN 021941 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 341 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak front moving into the area will washout tonight allowing high pressure to build in. The high will keep the area predominantly warm and dry into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will return midweek as a cold front approaches and moves through the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Weak surface low moving into the Tri-State as well as a weak front pushing into northwest counties are both foci for showers, although with minimal forcing, coverage of precipitation is fairly low. Instability has been increasing as insolation has increased a bit with breaks in the clouds. Cannot rule out a bit of thunder with the somewhat better chance along and south of the Ohio River. The chance of precipitation, albeit low, will linger into the evening before ending.

Cloud forecast is more challenging. Satellite imagery does show some improvement in recent hours and that trend is likely to continue. But expect that substantial clearing may not come about until well after sunset. This will leave lingering low level moisture. Combined with light winds, expect these conditions to lead to fog developing and eventually more low clouds by daybreak. Guidance has been indicating that this is all more likely along and south/east of I-71, but cannot rule out some visibility restrictions in northwest counties as well.

Lows will mainly be in the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Surface high will build in and then slide off to the east during the period. Meanwhile moderate amplitude mid level ridging will also develop. This will lead to dry and warmer conditions. Any fog and stratus in the morning will eventually break and evolve into some scattered cumulus. The cumulus will dissipate with the loss of heating with just some high clouds Monday night. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
An upper level trough and cold front will start approaching the Ohio Valley on Tuesday into Tuesday night the northwest. Strengthening southerly flow develops ahead of the disturbance leading to increasing temperatures and moisture across the region. Highs are forecast to spike into the middle to upper 80s by Tuesday afternoon with humid conditions in place. Some instability should develop by the afternoon which allows for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm chances although coverage remains uncertain since forcing and shear is weak. Muggy conditions and some rain chances continue into Tuesday night due to persistent southerly flow.

The cold front and upper level trough arrives later in the day on Wednesday. Showers and storms are expected since peak diurnal instability appears at least moderately likely to overlap deep moisture, shear, and forcing. The cold front will then progress to the east Wednesday night thereby quickly reducing shower and storm chances. Winds shift to the west behind the front and cooler air arrives.

Below average temperatures and westerly winds persist through the end of the week due to a long wave trough setting up over the Great Lakes region. Multiple chances for showers will exist in this synoptic setup as cold fronts and shortwaves rotate around the trough axis.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Low ceilings across the area will be lifting during the early part of the TAF period as well as having breaks develop in the cloud cover. There is a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the clouds. It appears that most sites will become VFR within a few hours either side of 00Z except perhaps for the Columbus terminals. However, lingering low level moisture and light winds will most likely result in fog and in some cases stratus developing generally after 06Z.
This will result in IFR to LIFR conditions. After 12Z, Visibility will improve first follow by ceilings lifting and scattering late in the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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