Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 11:40 PM   Moonset 7:33 AM

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FXUS61 KILN 270622 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 222 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
As surface high pressure moves off the east coast, a warm front will move into the Ohio Valley tonight. Rain is expected for some locations tonight, with a warming trend heading into the weekend, and generally dry conditions. The chances for showers and storms will increase next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Surface high pressure over New England is continuing to move east, as a mid-level ridge axis moves eastward into the Ohio Valley. The boundary layer has begun to moisten, with dewpoints rising in to the 50s across much of the ILN CWA now. However, low level RH values remain fairly low. This will make precipitation somewhat of a challenge tonight, as both boundary layer and deep-layer saturation are rather marginal. The trend toward sparse coverage of measurable precipitation has continued to be evident on recent model runs. PoPs will be mainly in the 20-40 percent range tonight. There are some CAM indications of another area of showers or even weak convection making it into the northwestern ILN CWA after 06Z, so this will be accounted for in the grids as well. By morning, the southern and southeastern sections of the forecast area are most likely to be dry.

With southerly winds staying in place overnight, temperatures will remain mild, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
By 12Z Saturday, the entire ILN forecast area will be solidly in the warm sector, with an increasing pressure gradient and deeper boundary layer mixing helping to bring wind gusts into the 25-35 MPH range. This warm advection pattern will also make for a warm day, with highs in the middle to upper 70s.

With no real discernible surface or mid-level features over the ILN area, forcing will be very limited on Saturday, so precipitation chances are low. Any isolated activity would be more likely to develop closer to the stronger southwesterly mid-level flow, so perhaps in the far northwestern ILN CWA near diurnal timing.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Continued ridging in place over the region at the start of the period, with strong southerly flow into the Ohio Valley for Sunday. Temperatures push into the low/mid 80s with partly cloudy skies. Ample moisture will be present (given this time of year) but with Tds in the upper 50s, it shouldn't feel too muggy out. Outside chance for an afternoon diurnally driven popup storm but no real forcing for ascent present, so left PoPs dry for the time being. Sunday night remains dry, with lows in the mid 60s.

By Monday, we'll finally have a bit of a pattern shift as an upper level shortwave near the N. Dakota/ Minnesota border swings through the larger flow, nudging the ridge east out of our area. At the surface, a low pressure moves through the western Great Lakes, dragging a relatively weak cold front through our region. Showers with some embedded thunder arrive Monday evening through Tuesday, decreasing in coverage by Tuesday afternoon. Highs on Tuesday a tad cooler, in the mid/upper 70s. Otherwise, temps/Tds rebound quickly as another shortwave rides along the heels of the first.

This pattern results in a more zonal upper level structure, with repeated shortwaves moving through the flow. Therefore kept at least chance precip in the grids off and on through the remainder of the working week, despite lack of consensus on exact path of the waves.

There does seem to be a decent signal in above average temperatures through the week, with highs nearing 80 most days, about 10 degrees F above normal.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Amplified mid level flow with negatively tilted shortwave lifting from the Upper MS Valley across the western Great Lakes today. H8 45-50 kt southerly jet to pivot thru the Great Lakes this morning offering some favorable forcing and a period of low level wind shear. The best coverage of showers and thunderstorms to remain northwest of the TAF sites. Have handled this threat with a mention of VCSH at the northern TAF sites.

Warm front to pivot north into the Great Lakes with the TAF sites in the warm sector today. Mid level ceilings this morning will decrease in coverage as the warm front pivots north of the area. Additional shower or thunderstorm development is expected to remain north of the TAF sites today.

Southerly winds around 15 kts will gust up to 25 kts at times today and then up to 20 kts tonight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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