Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 10:55 PM   Moonset 7:59 AM

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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 205 Am Cdt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning - .
Today - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters rough. Tonight - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters rough. Sunday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, diminishing to around 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Bay waters rough, becoming choppy in the late morning and afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Monday - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Tuesday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Wednesday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 205 Am Cdt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
moderate to strong onshore winds and elevated seas will continue through the weekend. Small craft advisories are in effect through Sunday. Minor coastal flooding may be expected in vulnerable locations at times of high tide Saturday and Sunday. Please see the text of the issued beach hazards statement for details on coastal flooding potential. Rainfall chances increase on Sunday with scattered showers and storms persisting into Monday. Winds will gradually decrease late Sunday in Monday, with lingering high seas keeping conditions dangerous to small craft through Sunday night. Though more moderate, onshore flow will persist early next week.

FXUS64 KHGX 270436 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1136 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An upper level trough & associated surface low is currently tracking northeasterly across the Central/Northern Plains this afternoon. SE Texas has ample instability available this afternoon, with MU CAPE ranging from 2000-3000 J/KG and midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8 DegC/km. PWs range from 1.3-1.6" and dewpoint are currently in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A 30-40 knot LLJ remains in place overhead, and should continue to bring gusty conditions across SE Texas tonight. 6km bulk shear values range from 25 to 40 knots across the north/northwestern portions of our CWA, near the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. Meanwhile, 1km SRH remains generally under 150 m2/s2.
Thunderstorms, some severe, are currently ongoing near Central/Northeast Texas. High-res guidance suggests that the strongest forcing for these storms will remain further north, just outside of our CWA Even still, it is possible that a few strong to severe storms develop over portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area late this afternoon through later tonight. SPC has this area under a Marginal (level 1/5) risk of severe weather throughout the remainder of today. If any storms do develop in this area, the main threats will be damaging wind, large hail, and possibly locally heavy rainfall.

A cold front associated with the aforementioned system stalls out near Central Texas, allowing humid conditions to persist overnight as dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This, with cloudy skies should keep lows for Saturday morning in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Another mid/upper level trough will dig into the Four Corners on Saturday, though once again the strongest forcing remains north of our area during this period. Slightly stronger capping and lack of forcing should keep rain chances slim across SE Texas during the daytime hours. A 30-40 knot LLJ will continue to bring gusty winds during the day, which could warrant the need for a Wind Advisory, mainly in areas along the coastline/barrier islands. Otherwise, highs should be in the 80s area-wide.

The aforementioned upper level trough should fill NE across the Plains during the late afternoon/evening hours on Sunday. This will push the aforementioned stalled boundary towards SE Texas, which may produce isolated showers/storms over portions of the Brazos Valley heading into early Sunday morning.

03

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

There are a number of features we will need to watch for Sunday and Monday. The first is the aforementioned frontal boundary that will slowly creep into our neck of the woods from the west on Sunday. The other is a mid/upper trough currently digging southward over western CONUS. We will also need to monitor smaller disturbances embedded in the flow the aloft that could further enhance lift. By Sunday, the trough is expected to take on a negative tilt, with its axis roughly extending from eastern Colorado down to central Texas. Mid/upper south-southwest to southwest shear will increase through the day on Sunday as a result. Meanwhile in the low levels, deepening low pressure over the central plains coupled with continued high pressure over eastern CONUS will steepen the LL gradient and enhanced deep moist LL onshore flow (sfc-850mb). You will feel this via a strong breeze and plentiful humidity. The confluence of these features are expected to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms on starting late morning / early afternoon on Sunday, continuing into the morning and possibly the afternoon on Monday. The Weather Prediction Center has put most of our region under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall while our northern counties are under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4). An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in our northern counties on Sunday.

Both the mid/upper trough and sfc low pressure system pull northeastward and gradually lose their influence over the area on Monday. Despite the loss of larger scale forcing, continued high PWATs and the presence of weak mid/upper disturbances may suffice for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Global models indicate a more well defined mid/upper shortave could bring a better chance of showers/thunderstorms on Thursday. However, the best lift may remain north and west of our region.

Regarding temperatures, the forecast is pretty warm and humid with highs generally in the 80s with lows mostly in the low 70s.

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

CIGS should continue to scatter & lift this afternoon, with most locations expected to reach VFR levels. MVFR CIGS may linger in areas south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon. Isolated showers could develop in these areas too, through one or two isolated stronger storms cannot be completely ruled out. Isolated showers will also be possible further north (near KCLL and KUTS) as well, with a higher possibility of stronger thunderstorms for these locations. Southeasterly winds of 10-20 knots with gusts of 25-35 knots will be possible throughout the day, relaxing slightly this evening as MVFR CIGS fill back in from the coastline. MVFR conditions persist overnight into Saturday morning, with CIGS improving heading into the afternoon.

03

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

MVFR prevailing at all sites and expected to continue through Saturday morning as low clouds continue to build into SE Texas.
Winds are generally moderate out of the SE with occasional gusts to 20-25kts. Expect winds to increase during the day tomorrow to moderate to strong levels. Sustained winds of 20-25 kts will be possible as will gusts to above 30kts. Wind are expected to remain elevated through the overnight hours. MVFR CIGs make a return Saturday night into the overnight hours.



MARINE
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Continued elevated winds and resultant enhanced seas are expected through the weekend. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Rip current statement highlighting the high risk of rip currents along area beaches has been extended through Saturday evening.

CJ

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 73 85 73 82 / 20 10 20 80 Houston (IAH) 74 84 74 83 / 30 0 0 60 Galveston (GLS) 73 79 74 79 / 30 0 0 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375.

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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:40 AM CDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:57 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:46 PM CDT     0.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:54 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet

Clear Lake
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:59 AM CDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:57 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:33 PM CDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:54 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas (2), Tide feet

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