Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marshallberg, NC
April 27, 2024 4:04 AM ADT (07:04 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:34 AM Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 11:21 PM Moonset 8:19 AM |
AMZ065 Atlantic From 29n To 31n Between 70w And 74w- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - W of 72w, nw to N winds 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. E of 72w, nw winds 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
Tonight - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
Wed - N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Wed night - N winds 15 to 20 kt, shifting to N to ne 10 kt late. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Thu night - W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Fri - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
Fri night - NW to N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
AMZ005
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 270556 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 156 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain in control while gradually sliding offshore this weekend into early next week. A few upper disturbances will bring better chances for precipitation late next week.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
As of 745 PM Fri...Forecast on track and only made minor adjustments for the evening update.
Previous Discussion...Latest analysis shows strong 1033mb high pressure centered over the NE US, ridging southwestward into the Carolinas. Quiet weather continues tonight as high pressure slowly move southeastward. Lows falling into the upper 40s and low 50s across the area.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 220 PM Fri...Upper ridge will continue to build over the SE US as strong high pressure becomes centered along the Mid- Atlantic coast. This should lead to another pleasant, dry spring day with temps a few degrees below normal thanks to low level easterly flow. Highs ranging from the 60s along the Outer Banks to low to mid 70s inland.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 AM Friday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Well above normal temperatures Tuesday-Thursday
- Thunderstorm risk may return mid to late-week
FORECAST DETAILS
The most prominent feature in the long-term period will be an amplified upper level ridge forecast to develop over the Eastern U.S. this weekend and into early next week. Beneath the ridge, warm/above normal low-level thicknesses are forecast to develop.
There may be some mid-level cloudiness around over the weekend, but by early next week, the combination of mostly sunny skies, warm thicknesses, a reduced risk of precipitation, and persistent southwesterly flow should support a period of well above normal temperatures focused in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance support this, and with this forecast update, I've bumped temps up towards the 75th percentile of guidance. Inland, this suggests highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Along the coast, this suggests mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees. With persistent southerly flow, dewpoints are forecast to steadily increase early next week as well, which may allow heat indices to reach the 90s. While not headline-worthy, it's still noteworthy as this would increase the risk of heat exhaustion for those with prolonged exposure.
From mid to late-week, model guidance begins to differ, but the general theme is for the ridge to breakdown. While not immediate, the lack of ridging could eventually open the door to an increase in the risk of convection, if for no other reason than the daily seabreeze. Several shortwaves are forecast to pass over, or near, the Carolinas late in the week, which would also support an increase in the risk of convection. Of note, CIPS and CSU severe weather guidance are showing a modest signal for severe weather potential late-week, although deterministic guidance show less of a signal. Despite the differences, it's something to watch as we move into next week. Forecast-wise, we'll show a low-end risk of thunderstorms Thursday into Friday (10-30% chance). While still warm, temperatures late in the week should lower some compared to early in the week, especially with the potential for thunderstorms and more cloudiness around at times.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sunday/...
As of 145 AM Saturday...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR conditions likely over the next 24 hrs (60-80% chance)
FORECAST DETAILS
Low to mid-level moisture trapped beneath ridging aloft will lead to periods of VFR CIGs at times over the next 24 hrs. As of 06z, a layer of 9k ft CIGs is building south into northern sections of Eastern NC. Meanwhile, an area of 6k ft CIGs is slowly filling in from the west. Lastly, a coastal trough offshore is forecast to drift west through the day Saturday, with at least SCT 4k-6k ft clouds. Despite the various sources of low-mid level moisture and clouds, the general model consensus is for CIGs to remain at VFR levels, and the TAFs reflect this expectation. Of note, though, some guidance is hinting at the potential for a brief period of MVFR CIGs associated with the westward-moving coastal trough, so that will be something to watch during the day Saturday. With that trough, a few SHRA cannot be ruled out, but the coverage and probability of occurrence is too low for a mention in the TAFs for now.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 200 AM Friday...The expected synoptic weather pattern carries a high probability of VFR conditions into early next week, with little to no aviation impacts.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 8 PM Fri...Latest obs show NE winds 10-20 kt with seas 4-6 ft north of Ocracoke and 3-5 ft south. Gusts have dropped below 25 kt and will continue to diminish overnight so have allowed the SCA to expire south of Ocracoke and the Pamlico Sound. SCAs will continue through late tonight into Saturday for the northern and central waters. Winds will grad veer and slowly diminish to 10-15 kt overnight. Though elevated seas will linger north of Ocracoke. Strong high pressure becomes centered along the Mid- Atlantic coast Saturday, with winds becoming more easterly. E winds 10-15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt early. Seas will continue to grad diminish to 3-6 ft, potentially lingering at 6 ft across the outer central waters through late afternoon.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 200 AM Friday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Good boating conditions expected late-weekend into early next week
FORECAST DETAILS
High pressure overhead this weekend will shift offshore early next week, with inland troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will be very light over the weekend, then will steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of 10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.
The one exception is early this weekend as seas will remain elevated within the northeasterly background swell that has been impacting the area for the past few days.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152- 154.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 156 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain in control while gradually sliding offshore this weekend into early next week. A few upper disturbances will bring better chances for precipitation late next week.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
As of 745 PM Fri...Forecast on track and only made minor adjustments for the evening update.
Previous Discussion...Latest analysis shows strong 1033mb high pressure centered over the NE US, ridging southwestward into the Carolinas. Quiet weather continues tonight as high pressure slowly move southeastward. Lows falling into the upper 40s and low 50s across the area.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 220 PM Fri...Upper ridge will continue to build over the SE US as strong high pressure becomes centered along the Mid- Atlantic coast. This should lead to another pleasant, dry spring day with temps a few degrees below normal thanks to low level easterly flow. Highs ranging from the 60s along the Outer Banks to low to mid 70s inland.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 AM Friday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Well above normal temperatures Tuesday-Thursday
- Thunderstorm risk may return mid to late-week
FORECAST DETAILS
The most prominent feature in the long-term period will be an amplified upper level ridge forecast to develop over the Eastern U.S. this weekend and into early next week. Beneath the ridge, warm/above normal low-level thicknesses are forecast to develop.
There may be some mid-level cloudiness around over the weekend, but by early next week, the combination of mostly sunny skies, warm thicknesses, a reduced risk of precipitation, and persistent southwesterly flow should support a period of well above normal temperatures focused in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance support this, and with this forecast update, I've bumped temps up towards the 75th percentile of guidance. Inland, this suggests highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Along the coast, this suggests mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees. With persistent southerly flow, dewpoints are forecast to steadily increase early next week as well, which may allow heat indices to reach the 90s. While not headline-worthy, it's still noteworthy as this would increase the risk of heat exhaustion for those with prolonged exposure.
From mid to late-week, model guidance begins to differ, but the general theme is for the ridge to breakdown. While not immediate, the lack of ridging could eventually open the door to an increase in the risk of convection, if for no other reason than the daily seabreeze. Several shortwaves are forecast to pass over, or near, the Carolinas late in the week, which would also support an increase in the risk of convection. Of note, CIPS and CSU severe weather guidance are showing a modest signal for severe weather potential late-week, although deterministic guidance show less of a signal. Despite the differences, it's something to watch as we move into next week. Forecast-wise, we'll show a low-end risk of thunderstorms Thursday into Friday (10-30% chance). While still warm, temperatures late in the week should lower some compared to early in the week, especially with the potential for thunderstorms and more cloudiness around at times.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sunday/...
As of 145 AM Saturday...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR conditions likely over the next 24 hrs (60-80% chance)
FORECAST DETAILS
Low to mid-level moisture trapped beneath ridging aloft will lead to periods of VFR CIGs at times over the next 24 hrs. As of 06z, a layer of 9k ft CIGs is building south into northern sections of Eastern NC. Meanwhile, an area of 6k ft CIGs is slowly filling in from the west. Lastly, a coastal trough offshore is forecast to drift west through the day Saturday, with at least SCT 4k-6k ft clouds. Despite the various sources of low-mid level moisture and clouds, the general model consensus is for CIGs to remain at VFR levels, and the TAFs reflect this expectation. Of note, though, some guidance is hinting at the potential for a brief period of MVFR CIGs associated with the westward-moving coastal trough, so that will be something to watch during the day Saturday. With that trough, a few SHRA cannot be ruled out, but the coverage and probability of occurrence is too low for a mention in the TAFs for now.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 200 AM Friday...The expected synoptic weather pattern carries a high probability of VFR conditions into early next week, with little to no aviation impacts.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 8 PM Fri...Latest obs show NE winds 10-20 kt with seas 4-6 ft north of Ocracoke and 3-5 ft south. Gusts have dropped below 25 kt and will continue to diminish overnight so have allowed the SCA to expire south of Ocracoke and the Pamlico Sound. SCAs will continue through late tonight into Saturday for the northern and central waters. Winds will grad veer and slowly diminish to 10-15 kt overnight. Though elevated seas will linger north of Ocracoke. Strong high pressure becomes centered along the Mid- Atlantic coast Saturday, with winds becoming more easterly. E winds 10-15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt early. Seas will continue to grad diminish to 3-6 ft, potentially lingering at 6 ft across the outer central waters through late afternoon.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 200 AM Friday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Good boating conditions expected late-weekend into early next week
FORECAST DETAILS
High pressure overhead this weekend will shift offshore early next week, with inland troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will be very light over the weekend, then will steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of 10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.
The one exception is early this weekend as seas will remain elevated within the northeasterly background swell that has been impacting the area for the past few days.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152- 154.
Airport Reports
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Morehead City, NC,
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