Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 10:58 PM   Moonset 7:44 AM

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FXUS64 KSHV 270806 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 306 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

For much of the ArkLaTex, today will be the driest day of the forecast period. As we find ourselves positioned between the two upper level lows responsible for the waves of severe weather this weekend, the northeasterly trajectory of today's system will graze our northwestern half with showers and storms once again, starting this morning and spreading south and east into the afternoon. The best chance of precip will be in extreme southeast Oklahoma and adjacent counties. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few storms becoming strong to severe will be possible across our northwesternmost zones. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary convective hazards, as well as flash flooding in areas experiencing prolonged or repeated torrential rains.

South and east of the areas of convection, southeasterly winds will become strong and gusty this afternoon, at sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of up to 40 mph possible. Winds will continue and even strengthen overnight. Thus, a Wind Advisory will go into effect at 18Z and continue through 12Z Sunday for our east Texas counties and Louisiana parishes.

This afternoon will be warm as well as windy, as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s everywhere which does not see showers and storms develop early. Lows will drop into the upper 60s and lower 70s overnight. Sunday's highs will vary more noticeably, ranging from the middle 70s northwest to middle 80s southeast.

Today's active weather respite will be short-lived, being a bit of a preview of what is to come across our impacted northwestern zones, only in much more widespread in area and potentially more intense in nature during the day Sunday and into the evening and overnight hours. Convection looks to ramp up first thing Sunday morning north and west, spreading south and east gradually as the day continues.
The majority of the ArkLaTex is included in the Slight Risk for severe weather, with the primary associated threats again being damaging winds and large hail, with a tornado or two not out of the question.

In addition to the convective hazard, a troubling aspect of Sunday's weather is how slow-moving the system looks to be, creeping very gradually from northwest to southeast and continuing through the evening and overnight hours. This ponderous pace will allow for substantial rainfall accumulations, potentially amounting to two to three inches within a day's time. With area waterways still reasonably full from the flooding event earlier this month, it will not take much to cause our creeks, rivers and bayous to return above flood stage.

/26/

LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

While the wave of convection capable of producing severe impacts will pass overnight Sunday into Monday morning, there is not much in the way of a defined end to rainfall chances Monday. In the wake of the upper low and passing frontal boundary, the synoptic pattern aloft will transition to zonal flow and ultimately return to southwest flow.

In terms of impacts to the ArkLaTex, this means daily thunderstorm chances. If not technically uninterrupted rainfall, the grids show noteworthy PoPs more often than not for the course of the coming week, with associated chances of thunder with this rainfall. This unsettled pattern does not look to come to an end within this forecast period, making for a frequently wet end of April and beginning of May. Temperatures will be mitigated somewhat by the ongoing rainfall but will remain warm in the low to mid 80s for afternoon highs throughout, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

All told, combining this weekend's storms and next week's unsettled pattern, ArkLaTex sites look on track to accumulate between 2 and 6 inches of rainfall through the course of the coming week.

/26/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR cigs have begun to develop early this morning across Deep E TX and Wrn LA, and should continue to develop/spread N across much of the region through the overnight hours. Convection continues to diminish across portions of NCntrl LA and Scntrl AR, and should move away from the ELD terminals by 08Z, with convection free conditions expected through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period.
The MVFR cigs should persist through mid to late morning before lifting/becoming VFR, with cu cigs eventually scattering out by early to mid afternoon. While some residual cu may linger during the evening/ MVFR cigs are expected to redevelop again by 02-03Z over Deep E TX/Cntrl LA, and quickly spread back N into the region by the end of the 06Z TAF period through the early morning hours Sunday. SSE winds 6-12kts with gusts to 20-25kts over the Wrn sections of E TX overnight, will become more S and increase to 13-20kts with gusts to 30kts after 15Z. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 87 72 85 68 / 20 10 60 90 MLU 87 67 86 67 / 20 0 20 60 DEQ 80 65 77 61 / 50 40 90 70 TXK 85 70 81 65 / 50 30 80 90 ELD 85 67 82 63 / 30 10 40 90 TYR 85 70 80 67 / 30 40 90 70 GGG 85 71 82 66 / 30 20 80 90 LFK 87 71 84 67 / 10 10 60 80

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

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