Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 11:13 PM   Moonset 7:55 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 270725 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 225 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /This Weekend/

A severe weather outbreak is possible this afternoon and tonight.

- Very large hail 2+" in diameter, damaging wind gusts upwards of 70+ mph, and tornadoes are most likely in the late afternoon and early evening across North Texas (mainly along and west of I-35).

- A line of storms is then expected overnight, bringing the potential for damaging wind gusts and spin-up tornadoes across most of North and Central Texas.

- Saturated soils and multiple rounds of heavy rain may lead to flash flooding for parts of the area through Sunday afternoon.

- Outside of thunderstorms, it will be windy. Expect sustained south winds of 20-25 mph with gusts upwards of 35-40 mph. The strongest winds are expected this afternoon and evening.

Forecast Discussion: Isolated warm advection showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible across North Texas in the pre-dawn hours, but most of the area will start the weekend dry, warm, and muggy. A dry line moved into the western part of our forecast area Friday afternoon and has retreated west into the Big Country. A weak, leading shortwave trough is forecast to move over the Southern Plains early Saturday morning, igniting a cluster of thunderstorms near the dryline around sunrise. Most of this activity should remain west/northwest of our area. However, depending on where convective initiation occurs, our far northwestern counties will have potential to be clipped by some storms early in the day. No matter where these storms develop/propagate, an outflow boundary will serve as a focused source of surface ascent sufficient to overcome any capping/convective inhibition by mid-late morning.

There is uncertainty regarding how far east storms will be able to advance this afternoon. Some of the 00Z CAM guidance indicated supercells developing near/in the Metroplex in the open warm sector along a remnant outflow boundary, while some kept the stronger cells in Oklahoma and far Western North Texas closer to the dryline. Either way, supercells supportive of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are expected to develop this afternoon and evening in or near parts of North Texas. There are only a handful of days each year that I personally ask you to be weather aware. Today is one of those days.

The warm/moist airmass ahead of the dryline is very positively buoyant with MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This alone provides enough instability to support robust updrafts capable of producing large hail. When you factor kinematic parameters, the hail and tornado potential increases even further...particularly late in the afternoon and overnight when a robust shortwave trough and jet streak move over the Southern Plains. The net result of this will be favorable shear vectors for supercells and tornadoes.

Additional storms are expected to develop this evening to our west as the more robust shortwave trough intersects the dryline. Very strong forcing for ascent and favorable shear vectors will allow for quick upscale growth, changing the convective mode to linear in short-order. The line of storms is expected to move into our western counties around midnight and move east through the early morning hours. The main threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts and spin-up tornadoes along the leading edge of the line of storms. While some stabilization will occur overnight, strengthening low-level flow and a resurgence of moist advection will preclude too much nocturnal stabilization...meaning the line of storms will be more than sufficient to overcome any capping. Of course, this will be harder the further east the storms travel, so we do expect an eventual downward trend in storm intensity after the storms move through and east of the I-35 corridor early Sunday morning.

The severe threat is lower across our eastern row of counties compared to those northwest of the Metroplex today and tonight.
The opposite is true Sunday. The line of storms will be able to sustain through the night, with a broken cluster of storms ongoing early Sunday morning for areas east of I-35. By this time, the line should be mostly parallel to the deep-layer flow, resulting in an increased risk of training storms and heavy rain. The Flood Watch may need to be extended and expanded southeast, but we will hold off on any configuration changes at this time.

As the cold pool lingers over our area Sunday, afternoon destabilization will allow for a gradual uptick in storm intensity across the eastern third of our forecast area. While the parameter space is not as favorable as it will be today, there should be sufficient shear and instability to produce large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes.

Bonnette

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Sunday Night Onward/

As the sun sets across North and Central Texas, a few lingering storms may be ongoing across eastern areas, some of which could be strong to severe. Given storms are likely going to be on the downward trend, the severe weather potential should come to an end by midnight, leaving behind precipitation free conditions for much of our area.

The shortwave responsible for Sunday's convection will quickly skirt away from the region Sunday night. Another shortwave with a similar path will be entering the Southern Plains Monday morning, inducing surface cyclogenesis across the Texas Panhandle. Given the moisture starved atmosphere in place and a stout capping inversion, storms appear unlikely Monday afternoon.

With the southern branch of the jet stream across the Southern Plains, subtle disturbances will make their way from west to east Tuesday through the end of the work week. As each disturbance moves overhead, there will be a potential for thunderstorms to develop. There will be plenty of instability for storms to be strong or severe, however, timing and location remain highly uncertain at this time.

A cold front is expected to push through the region the latter half of next week, with guidance ranging from as early as Thursday night to Saturday morning. Increased rain chances will accompany the front and the threat for severe storms may increase once again.

The cold front will provide temporary relief from the 80 degree temperatures we'll experience much of the week. Behind the front, expect highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s.

Hernandez

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

MVFR stratus is engulfing all of North and Central Texas at this time. Expect it to move over all TAF sites and linger for most of the morning. Ceilings should start to improve in the mid-late morning, eventually becoming VFR in the afternoon. Gusty south flow is expected through the valid TAF period, with occasional gusts over 35 kts possible mainly between 00-06Z.

The main concern will be the morning, afternoon, and overnight thunderstorms. At this time, we're expecting all of the morning activity to remain well west of any TAF site. Storms should creep east through the day, encroaching on the D10 terminals late in the afternoon. There is still uncertainty if the storms will be close enough for VCTS/TEMPO, or remain near SPS/Wichita Falls. We have maintained VCTS in the current TAFs...but will have to monitor real-time trends and updated guidance closely.

We are more confident of storms impacting the terminals some time after 06Z tonight as a line of storms moves in from the west.
Since it's still 24 hours away, we only have SHRA VCTS in the TAF...but a prevailing thunder line will likely be needed sometime between 07-12Z Sunday.

Bonnette


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 81 66 80 66 / 10 70 90 90 20 Waco 72 81 66 77 66 / 40 40 80 90 30 Paris 64 81 66 75 64 / 30 50 80 90 50 Denton 70 78 65 80 63 / 10 70 90 70 10 McKinney 69 81 66 77 65 / 20 70 90 90 20 Dallas 70 82 66 79 66 / 20 60 90 90 20 Terrell 65 82 68 77 66 / 40 40 80 90 40 Corsicana 68 85 70 78 67 / 50 20 60 90 50 Temple 72 81 68 77 66 / 30 30 70 90 30 Mineral Wells 71 80 63 83 61 / 5 70 90 40 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>095-102>107- 117>123-131>135-144>146-159.

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