Sunrise 5:40 AM   Sunset 7:08 PM Moonrise 11:16 PM   Moonset 7:55 AM

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FXUS65 KPSR 270941 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 241 AM MST Sat Apr 27 2024


SYNOPSIS
A departing weather system will result in residual breeziness and some showers across the higher terrain areas of eastern AZ today.
Thereafter, as high pressure settles over the region, a benign weather pattern with a warming trend will ensue with temperatures warming into the nineties across the lower deserts next week.

DISCUSSION
Latest water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows a large upper-level low spinning near the Four Corners Region. This low pressure system will continue to gradually lift east- northeastward into the central Rockies throughout the day. Enough of a pressure gradient will still be in place for some residual breeziness to materialize this afternoon through early this evening across the region, with peak gusts ranging between 20-30 mph. In addition, energy rotating on the back side of the low will spark some convective shower activity this afternoon across the AZ High Country, with some of the activity making its way into southern Gila County. These showers for the most part are expected to rather unimpactful with very light accumulations expected, if any. Otherwise, with the negative height anomalies persisting across the region, temperatures once again will remain below normal with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s across the lower deserts.

Once the troughing feature quickly lifts northward into the central and northern Plains on Sunday, high pressure will begin to settle across the region with upper-level height fields on the rise. As a result, temperatures will be on a warming trend with highs expected to rise back up to near normal levels with readings in the upper 80s across most of the lower desert communities.

Heading into next week, a more quasi-zonal flow will be in place across the region as a series of shortwave troughs moving through the northwest CONUS will limit any sort of ridge amplification across the Desert Southwest. With 500 mb height fields rising into the 576-578dm range early next week, temperatures will continue to warm even further into the low 90s on Monday and then into the mid 90s on Tuesday across the lower deserts. With not much change in the height fields through the rest of next week due to the quasi-zonal flow in place, little change in temperatures is expected during the mid to late week time frame. With the majority of the shortwave energy remaining well north of the region, a mostly benign weather pattern will be in place through all of next week with dry conditions and winds remaining on the lighter side with just the typical afternoon breeziness.

AVIATION
Updated at 0525Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Winds will be the primary weather issue through Saturday night as isold SHRA/TSRA and associated 080-100 AGL cigs currently skirting the far northern parts of the Phoenix metro quickly exit the region around midnight. Low forecast confidence exists regarding exact evolution of winds overnight given the effects of the SHRA creating oscillations between a NW and SW component, but model evidence continues to support a lack of the traditional easterly switch overnight. Renewed gusts around 20kt should be common across the area Saturday afternoon with more usual directional/speed behavior resuming Saturday evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Gusty winds will continue to be the primary weather concern through Saturday evening under mostly clear skies. W/SW winds should continue to gust above 25kt at KIPL into the overnight hours with less gustiness at KBLH. Through the mid/late morning, trends among forecasts suggest a veering to a NW direction during daylight hours Saturday. Periodic gusts may resume Saturday afternoon and evening though forecast confidence regarding the duration of stronger gusts is low.

FIRE WEATHER
Residual breeziness from a departing weather system can be expected for today with afternoon and early evening gusts ranging between 20-30 mph. Some showers may affect the far eastern districts later today. MinRHs will range between 15-20% across the lower deserts to 30-40% across the far eastern districts. A significant warming trend takes place Sunday through early next week with little change in temperatures expected by the middle to latter of next week. With the warming temperatures, RH values will trend downward through next week with MinRHs generally ranging between 10-15%. Winds beginning Sunday and continuing through most of next week will generally be on the lighter side with the typical afternoon upslope breeziness expected.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ562.

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