Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 11:11 PM   Moonset 7:47 AM

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FXUS62 KCAE 270625 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 225 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure will be over the region through Monday along with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a warming trend. A weak front is expected to bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday through Thursday, mainly northern and eastern areas.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Current satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies across much of the area with partly cloudy in the eastern Midlands. Through daybreak expect the cloud to progress eastward with most of the forecast area mostly cloudy by daybreak. With the clouds already in place temperatures have been slow to cool and additional clouds will limit cooling over the next couple of hours. As a result have increased overnight low a degree or two with mid 50s to around 60.

Easterly flow will continue over the area today as the ridge of high pressure remains across east of the area along the coast with upper level ridging building over the eastern US. This will continue pushing moisture into the area and keep skies partly to mostly cloudy through today and into tonight. Main concern today is some guidance suggesting there could be a couple showers develop along the coast and move inland while the remainder of the guidance suggests near zero chance of showers.
With the cloud cover expected coupled with an inversion around 10 kft and some drier air in the mid levels have kept mention of showers out of the forecast however have increased pops through the afternoon just below slight chance. This evening with the loss of heating all potential for showers dissipates and some clearing is expected overnight. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to around 80 with low tonight in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Upper ridging is expected to remain over the region through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to be centered off the Mid- Atlantic/Northeast coast. This high is anticipated to weaken and drift south. The combination of ridging aloft and surface high centered to our east is expected to continue the fair weather and gradual warming trend. Some guidance is showing a subtle boundary working its way around the surface high, which can mainly be seen in brief lowering of PWATS behind it. This feature could bring showers near the area Sunday afternoon, but it looks like any shower activity will remain offshore. That said, the Euro and GEFS ensembles are showing a low chance (~10-20%) for precipitation associated with this, mainly in the CSRA. In contrast, the NBM is showing 0% chance of rain on Sunday. Forecast soundings indicate there would need to be some sort of forcing strong enough to provide enough lift to get showers in the area, which I'm not confident the boundary will be. Therefore, have decided to keep PoPs below 10%.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Upper ridging and surface high pressure remain in place to start the work week, allowing for a warming trend to continue as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s. A shortwave and associated frontal boundary are forecast to move through the region around midweek, bringing a slight chance of showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Despite the potential showers, warm temperatures are anticipated to continue. A deeper trough approaches the area toward the end of the long term period, which looks to give us a better chance of more widespread rainfall late next week into the weekend. That said, it's still several days away so confidence is on the lower side still.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low confidence in VFR conditions through the period.

Weak high pressure will be over the region through the period however moist easterly flow will continue. Current obs across the area show plenty of mid and upper level clouds and expect this to limit any fog development through sunrise. The moisture will also keep clouds across the terminals through the day with mainly VFR cigs however there are some indications of some MVFR cigs at a few points through the day. Confidence in MVFR cigs developing is low and plan to handle with a TEMPO group if necessary. Clouds will begin to lift this evening into tonight with mostly cloudy skies tonight again limiting fog potential.
Winds through the period will be easterly at 8 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in early morning fog or stratus each morning. Slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Tuesday onward.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

Bacon Bridge
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Sat -- 01:13 AM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:45 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:22 PM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Canaday Landing
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Sat -- 02:49 AM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:49 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:12 PM EDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:42 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Canaday Landing, south of, Edisto River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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Columbia, SC,