Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 11:30 PM   Moonset 7:52 AM

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FXUS64 KMRX 270520 AAA AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 120 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1001 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Winds have increased a bit more in some of the usual spots, so will go ahead and issue the wind advisory for the mountains and foothills of the E TN mountains through 6 AM.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Key Messages:

1. Light rain will continue its trek from approximately Knoxville northeastward into Southwest VA before exiting tonight.

2. Breezy conditions, especially over the higher terrain and adjacent foothills into tomorrow. No Wind products are in effect.

Discussion:

A rather overperformed isentropic lift will continue it's exit to the northeast tonight, bringing possibly up to a half inch of rain to far northeast Tennessee and southwest VA. Over a half inch had fallen from the line just southwest of Knoxville this morning through the early afternoon. The afternoon highs today may struggle to reach what was forecast due to the slow moving line of precip and cloudy conditions. As of 3 PM EDT, Chattanooga is about the only location in our forecast area in the 70's.

Skies look to remain mostly cloudy overnight with clearer conditions in the southern valley and plateau. This may inhibit fog development overnight, but will monitor it. The only "calm" areas tonight will be the central and northern valley up into Scott County, VA where most of the rain has fallen or is headed.
On the subject of winds, expect sub-advisory gusts to persist over the higher terrain and some adjacent foothills. Gusts should mostly stay under 35 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph are possible in valley locations tomorrow afternoon.

Overall, Saturday looks to be a better day with dry weather and clouds slowly thinning. A warming trend also begins into the weekend under the influence of ridging aloft and surface high pressure over the western Atlantic.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Key Messages:

1. Continued above normal temperatures, with highs 8-10 degrees above normal expected.

2. Dry into early next week, but then daily chances for at least scattered showers and thunderstorms starting Tuesday.

Discussion:

Upper level ridging will remain anchored over the southeast CONUS from Saturday night into early next week, keeping our forecast area precip free and on the warm side through that time. Expect highs on Sunday and Monday to be in the neighborhood of 8-10 degrees above normal.

Meanwhile, between Saturday night and late Sunday afternoon and evening, a closed upper low will have ejected northeast from the Colorado Rockies into the northern plains, leaving a cold front situated from the upper midwest down through the Ozarks and into the southern plains by Monday morning. As mentioned, we'll be rain free during this time. But this set up will present us with rain chances on Tuesday as the front shifts further east in response to the aforementioned upper low moving through the Great Lakes and into Canada and a southern stream shortwave moving east through the deep south. The front itself likely gets held up to our NW, so this doesn't appear to be a true FROPA next week. But the southern stream shortwave should result in fairly widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Severe potential with this system still looks to be low, so general thunder is all that is expected at this time.

For Wednesday onward next week the upper pattern looks less amplified across the CONUS, with broad ridging over the southeast (and weak troughing over the Rockies) still. However areas from the Arklatex region, northeast into the Tennessee valley will lie beneath southwesterly upper flow and solid return flow off the GOMEX. Embedded in those southwesterlies will be weak impulses that will almost certainly result in some scattered afternoon convection each day, with rain chances favoring areas of higher terrain and also northern areas closer to the aforementioned stalled front.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

LLWS will be included at TYS and TRI where surface winds are calm and winds aloft are around 30 kt from the S-SE. This is expected to end around 12Z when winds aloft diminish and surface winds increase. Mainly high clouds will be over the area today, broken most of the time then scattered late in the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 62 82 60 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 58 82 58 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 79 59 82 59 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 55 81 55 / 10 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.

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