Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 7:31 PM Moonrise 11:42 PM   Moonset 8:01 AM

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FXUS64 KOHX 270657 AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms that have been over west TN continue to fall apart as they approach the TN river. This trend will continue as they push into the more stable environment over us and loose their forcing. Still can't rule out a few sprinkles this morning through about 10 AM or so but not expecting any measurable rain. The cloud cover will bring warm morning temperatures. Clouds will then gradually clear during the afternoon and evening with highs in the 80s. Wind will be the main impact for today. High pressure will be sitting off to our east and a deep 996 low will track into the Great Lakes. This will bring a good pressure gradient over us resulting in gusty winds.
Winds will already pick up by daybreak but the strongest gusts can be expected mid-morning into the mid-afternoon with gusts 20-30 mph, isolated up to 35 mph.

High pressure will continue to influence our weather on Sunday bringing another dry day with highs in the 80s. The pressure gradient will be weaker on Sunday and that will bring less breezy winds but we still could see some gusts 15-25 mph in the afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The active pattern to our west will start to push east a bit early next week. This will push a short wave and weak cold front into our area later Monday into Tuesday bringing shower and thunderstorm chances. Severe weather looks low as forcing will be marginal with this front, also CAPE looks marginal along with poor lapse rates and lack of good shear.

Weak ridging looks to build in mid-week but we will keep some instability around along with dew points in the low to mid 60s.
This will bring afternoon thunderstorm chances. Wednesday and even Thursday we won't see much forcing and widespread thunderstorms are not expected. The next better chances for thunderstorms will come late in the week as a front approaches the area. Ensembles still are struggling with the timing of this front and there is quite a bit of uncertainty with it. Highs through the period will remain warm in the 80s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR conditions for the TAF period. Showers in western TN will diminish as they push east and should not be an issue but a few sprinkles through 15z can't be ruled out. Winds overnight will be out of the south up to 15 knots picking up after 12z and becoming gusty with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will start to diminish after 00z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 84 65 84 65 / 10 0 0 10 Clarksville 82 64 84 65 / 10 0 10 20 Crossville 74 59 77 59 / 10 0 0 0 Columbia 83 64 83 64 / 10 0 0 10 Cookeville 77 61 79 63 / 10 0 0 0 Jamestown 77 59 80 61 / 10 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 82 64 81 64 / 10 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 83 64 83 66 / 10 0 0 0 Waverly 84 65 83 66 / 10 0 10 20

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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