Sunrise 5:34 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 4:19 PM   Moonset 3:25 AM

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FXUS64 KOHX 191716 AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1216 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Warm day ahead. Late this morning, under plentiful sunshine, temperatures are already pushing through the 70s with a few lower 80s. Skies are mostly sunny and we will continue to warm well into the 80s.

Upper ridge to move slowly across the mid state through Monday, with additional ridging moving in on Tuesday. This will keep us on the toasty side for mid May. 850 mb temps will edge upward a degree or so by Tuesday afternoon. Looks like upper 80s to near 90 for our upcoming highs. Overnight lows will generally remain in the 60s.
Afternoon dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to near 60 so the heat index humidity factor looks close to zero effect.

LONG TERM
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

In the extended forecast, upper ridge will break down with a quasi zonal regime prevailing thereafter. A frontal boundary on Wednesday will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The boundary will stall out and weaken by Thursday, but will continue to serve as a initiator for further convection.

A warm front will lift north by Saturday with another frontal system following on Sunday. Thus, shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp up once again late in the extended period.

As of any severe weather, nothing really jumps out synoptically.
Instability levels do climb but look to be paired with weak shear and sketchy organizational levels. Currently, we are not outlooked but the day 4 is active to our west. This has to do with that mid week frontal system mentioned earlier. Again though, phasing is just fair to poor by the time the fropa occurs in our neck of the woods.
Otherwise, rainfall amounts over the next 7 days look like just one to two inches, so not too bad.

For the extended temperatures, looking warm Wednesday ahead of the boundary. Then, a 5f-8F cool down will follow. Mid to upper 80s will return for the weekend. Overnight lows look warm with mid to upper 60s expected.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at BNA/MQY/CKV. There is a chance that fog could develop at CSV/SRB after 06z but confidence is not high. A tempo group was included at the sites to address the fog potential at this time. Winds will be out of the NNE/NE through this afternoon at 5-10 kts. Winds will decrease below 5 kts this evening. Winds will increase to around 5 kts late Monday morning out of the S/SSW.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 64 88 67 89 / 0 10 0 0 Clarksville 62 86 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 57 80 59 82 / 0 10 0 0 Columbia 61 86 64 87 / 0 10 0 0 Cookeville 60 83 62 84 / 0 10 0 0 Jamestown 58 83 60 83 / 0 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 62 85 64 86 / 0 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 60 87 64 88 / 0 10 0 0 Waverly 63 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 0

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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