Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middles, KY
May 19, 2024 6:44 PM EDT (22:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:21 AM Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 4:07 PM Moonset 3:13 AM |
FXUS63 KJKL 192015 AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 415 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry weather is expected area wide through Wednesday morning.
- There is a potential for showers and thunderstorms at times from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday.
- Very warm temperatures will persist through Wednesday. An increase in clouds and the possibility of rain will bring somewhat lower temperature after that, especially Thursday and Friday.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024
Southwest/northeast oriented ridging at all levels will slowly pass east over the region during the period, resulting in dry weather with mainly clear skies. Strong, nearly full sun (within about a month of summer solstice) will result in very warm afternoon temperatures on Monday, well into the 80s. Our atmosphere aloft will continue to be very dry, creating good radiating conditions.
With light low levels winds, valleys will readily decouple from the flow each evening, leading to typical ridge/valley min temperature differences, as well as valley fog. The temperatures differences will be greatest on Monday night, as weak warm air advection keeps ridges warmer than tonight.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 415 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024
We will start the extended period on the last dry day for the remainder of the 7-day stretch. High pressure and upper level ridging will be exiting to the east, but we will remain under their influence throughout the day Tuesday. Meanwhile, return SW flow will aid in increased WAA across the region, with highs topping out in the mid and upper 80s once more.
At the same time, a strong low pressure system will be brewing across the Central Plains during the afternoon on Tuesday, coinciding with a deepening shortwave and development of a closed low in the upper levels. This system will be quickly shifting northeast, strengthening substantially by the time it reaches the Upper Great Lakes by 12Z Wednesday. By this point it will already start becoming occluded, with a warm front spreading east across the Great Lakes region, and a cold front draped southward across the Mississippi Valley. The end of this cold front will be in TX, where another low pressure system exists. During the day Wednesday the strong system will continue to push northeast, dragging the cold front eastward. However, the southern edge of the front will become stationary in TX, causing the front to become more elongated, laid out from SW to NE across much of the eastern U.S., and directly across the Commonwealth. Pops from this front will begin moving into the JKL CWA by Wednesday afternoon, becoming more widespread during the day Thursday as the front slows it's progression and becomes stalled east to west across Kentucky.
With a lot of the forcing from the upper level system continuing to move away from the state, and the front weakening, it is likely that it will lose some energy heading into the nighttime hours Thursday night, so kept with NBM backing down to scattered pops. However, the ECMWF and GFS both show a surface low and shortwave moving across the state during the day Friday. This, along with daytime heating and increased lift/instability along the frontal boundary still in place, could increase pops back to likely once more during the day Friday.
A similar situation will happen Friday night into Saturday, with pops decreasing during the overnight, and ramping back up during the afternoon hours Saturday as the remnants of the boundary remain present. Models are also showing a second system setting up to our west Friday into Saturday. Unfortunately, there is no agreement on the timing. If the GFS is true, it will be impacting eastern KY by Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, the ECWMF is quite a bit slower, with the system just starting to impact the western end of the state late Saturday afternoon/evening. Will be interested to see how these both shake out. Either way, expect chances for rain and storms on Saturday, just like the days leading up to it.
As for temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday will be the warmest days, ahead of the front and in the SW flow sector. Once the front moves through and becomes stationary, clouds will also be a commonplace, with temperatures maxing out in the upper 70s to around 80. Models show a warm up back to the low to mid 80s by Saturday, but a lot of this is dependent on the above-mentioned system brewing to our west during that time, so expect these numbers to fluctuate over the coming days as models begin to come into better agreement.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024
Outside of late night - early morning valley fog, VFR conditions and winds less than 10 kts are forecast through the period. The fog is forecast to temporarily affect a few TAF sites with sub-VFR conditions.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 415 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry weather is expected area wide through Wednesday morning.
- There is a potential for showers and thunderstorms at times from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday.
- Very warm temperatures will persist through Wednesday. An increase in clouds and the possibility of rain will bring somewhat lower temperature after that, especially Thursday and Friday.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024
Southwest/northeast oriented ridging at all levels will slowly pass east over the region during the period, resulting in dry weather with mainly clear skies. Strong, nearly full sun (within about a month of summer solstice) will result in very warm afternoon temperatures on Monday, well into the 80s. Our atmosphere aloft will continue to be very dry, creating good radiating conditions.
With light low levels winds, valleys will readily decouple from the flow each evening, leading to typical ridge/valley min temperature differences, as well as valley fog. The temperatures differences will be greatest on Monday night, as weak warm air advection keeps ridges warmer than tonight.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 415 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024
We will start the extended period on the last dry day for the remainder of the 7-day stretch. High pressure and upper level ridging will be exiting to the east, but we will remain under their influence throughout the day Tuesday. Meanwhile, return SW flow will aid in increased WAA across the region, with highs topping out in the mid and upper 80s once more.
At the same time, a strong low pressure system will be brewing across the Central Plains during the afternoon on Tuesday, coinciding with a deepening shortwave and development of a closed low in the upper levels. This system will be quickly shifting northeast, strengthening substantially by the time it reaches the Upper Great Lakes by 12Z Wednesday. By this point it will already start becoming occluded, with a warm front spreading east across the Great Lakes region, and a cold front draped southward across the Mississippi Valley. The end of this cold front will be in TX, where another low pressure system exists. During the day Wednesday the strong system will continue to push northeast, dragging the cold front eastward. However, the southern edge of the front will become stationary in TX, causing the front to become more elongated, laid out from SW to NE across much of the eastern U.S., and directly across the Commonwealth. Pops from this front will begin moving into the JKL CWA by Wednesday afternoon, becoming more widespread during the day Thursday as the front slows it's progression and becomes stalled east to west across Kentucky.
With a lot of the forcing from the upper level system continuing to move away from the state, and the front weakening, it is likely that it will lose some energy heading into the nighttime hours Thursday night, so kept with NBM backing down to scattered pops. However, the ECMWF and GFS both show a surface low and shortwave moving across the state during the day Friday. This, along with daytime heating and increased lift/instability along the frontal boundary still in place, could increase pops back to likely once more during the day Friday.
A similar situation will happen Friday night into Saturday, with pops decreasing during the overnight, and ramping back up during the afternoon hours Saturday as the remnants of the boundary remain present. Models are also showing a second system setting up to our west Friday into Saturday. Unfortunately, there is no agreement on the timing. If the GFS is true, it will be impacting eastern KY by Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, the ECWMF is quite a bit slower, with the system just starting to impact the western end of the state late Saturday afternoon/evening. Will be interested to see how these both shake out. Either way, expect chances for rain and storms on Saturday, just like the days leading up to it.
As for temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday will be the warmest days, ahead of the front and in the SW flow sector. Once the front moves through and becomes stationary, clouds will also be a commonplace, with temperatures maxing out in the upper 70s to around 80. Models show a warm up back to the low to mid 80s by Saturday, but a lot of this is dependent on the above-mentioned system brewing to our west during that time, so expect these numbers to fluctuate over the coming days as models begin to come into better agreement.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2024
Outside of late night - early morning valley fog, VFR conditions and winds less than 10 kts are forecast through the period. The fog is forecast to temporarily affect a few TAF sites with sub-VFR conditions.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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