Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 11:03 PM   Moonset 7:15 AM

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ANZ636 York River- 628 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Today - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Tue - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Wed - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot. Wed night - SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop.

ANZ600 628 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure becomes centered off the mid atlantic coast today, keeping east to southeast winds across the region. The high then becomes anchored off the southeast coast from Sunday through the middle of next week, with winds generally south to southwest across the local waters.

FXUS61 KAKQ 270955 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 555 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure offshore moves south into early next week with a ridge building over the area. Well above normal temperatures are expected through next week. An unsettled pattern sets up from Tuesday into next weekend with multiple chances for showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 555 AM EDT Saturday...

A ~1034mb high pressure was centered just offshore of Long Island early this morning. This has allowed for light E flow to continue this morning. Mid level clouds continue to increase in coverage ahead of a subtle shortwave with mostly cloudy skies expected today.
A few very light showers have begun to move into the far W Piedmont early this morning. These isolated showers will continue to be possible this morning across the far NW portions of the FA and across N portions of the FA this afternoon with little to no accumulation. Clouds gradually diminish late tonight. Temps this morning generally ranged from the upper 40s to lower 50s with highs this afternoon in the lower 60s NE to the lower 70s SW (most in the 60s). Lows tonight in the upper 40s NE with low- mid 50s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

A ridge builds over the area into early next week with a warmup expected as winds become SW. Dry with increasing humidity. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Sun and mid to upper 80s Mon. A few locations may reach 90F on Mon with NBM 75th percentile showing ~90F. Lows in the upper 50s SW to lower 60s NE Sun and Mon night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

The ridge lingers over the E CONUS next week with well above normal temps expected. Highs in the mid-upper 80s Tue with the NBM 75th percentile showing the potential for 90F in a few locations.
Trending cooler along the coast from mid-late week due to onshore flow as a backdoor cold front moves in Wed afternoon as high pressure slides off the coast. As such, highs in the mid 80s inland and 70s along the coast are expected Wed and Thu. Highs may reach the lower 80s along the VA coast on Fri with 70s across the Eastern Shore. Highs Sat in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows remain mild through the week in the mid 50s to lower 60s each night.

Next week will not only "feel" Summer-like due to warm temperatures but also in the sense that an unsettled pattern develops from Tue- Sat with multiple chances for showers/storms. Several shortwaves move through the area during this time, however, global models disagree with timing for each of these subtle features. As such, have maintained NBM PoPs. Tue could feature some isolated to scattered storms, but models are not very excited about convection.
Therefore, have 25-30% PoPs across the far W portions of the FA with <20% PoPs elsewhere. Confidence is low in any convection Wed and Thu with only a slight chance <20% for any convection. Fri appears to be the greatest chance for showers/storms with PoPs of 35-45% W and 30- 40% E. A cold front approaches the area Sat with additional showers/storms possible (30-35% PoPs).

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 550 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z taf period. Mid level clouds linger over the area today with CIGs mainly 5000-7000ft (lower in the Piedmont where MVFR CIGs are possible). BKN/OVC sky cover continues through the day before becoming SCT tonight with CIGs improving. Dry at the terminals with a few very light showers possible across W and N portions of the FA today. Cannot completely rule out a few light showers making it to RIC or SBY late this afternoon but confidence is too low to reflect in TAFs. Winds were generally E <5 kt inland and 5-10 kt along the coast early this morning. Winds become ESE/SE 5-10 kt by mid to late morning.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from tonight through at least Mon.

MARINE
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Early this morning, strong ~1033mb high pressure remains centered just off the New England coast. Winds are generally out of the east and range from 10 to 15 knots with a few locally higher gusts. Seas continue to diminish and now range from 3 to 4 feet. Although seas may approach 5 feet out 20 nm/south of the VA/NC border, will allow the SCA to end as scheduled with seas expected to diminish further over the next few hours.

Onshore winds of 10-15kt continue today into tonight as high pressure is slowly pushed offshore. Sunday into early next week, high pressure moves further offshore and gets pushed S. With this movement, winds become southerly (still at 10-15kt) Sunday through Tuesday. During this period, seas will be 3-4ft and waves 1-2ft. A front approaches the waters late Tuesday into early Wednesday with winds briefly becoming NW and then SE behind the front (winds still ~10kt).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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York Point
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Sat -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:19 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:03 PM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:05 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Messick Point
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Sat -- 06:13 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:44 AM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:59 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Messick Point, Back River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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