Sunrise 6:50 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 11:47 PM   Moonset 7:55 AM

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FXUS63 KLMK 270555 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 155 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Updated Aviation Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and breezy this weekend, with gusts exceeding 30 mph out of the southwest at times.

* Rain chances return early next week, but above normal temperatures persist.

UPDATE
Issued at 937 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Looking for another quiet evening across the region with mild lows only dropping into the low and mid 60s for most under steady SE winds and broken mid to upper clouds. A few gusts up in the 20 to 25 mph range are possible at times overnight. Have backed off the pops in our NW a bit as time heights really don't show much saturation in the lower half of the column. Nevertheless, will still carry a small chance of a shower mainly across southern IN overnight, where PWATs are a little higher (moisture is a little deeper). Outside of that, no other changes planned to the forecast at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Currently... Along surface troughing, a thin line of showers is moving through the region. Outside of the showers, there are scattered to broken mid-level clouds streaming overhead and temperatures in the upper 60s and mid 70s.

Tonight... As the low pressure system over the central Plains strengthens and propagates northeastward, pressure gradients will tighten over the Ohio Valley. The tightening gradients will lead to breezy sustained winds of 10-14mph and gusting up to 25mph. The warm front associated with this system will sweep through the region in the overnight hours, shifting winds to a southerly direction and allowing weak moisture advection. A 45-50kt LLJ will meander into the region supporting some light, dissipating showers along and east of I-65 in the early morning hours. Low temperatures will be in the low-mid 60s.

Saturday... The low pressure system will quickly move over the Great Lakes region, pulling most of the precipitation to the north of the region. Light showers will still be possible until the afternoon over southern Indiana. Gradient winds will continue to strengthen bringing breezy winds around 12-15mph and gusting up to 30mph. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, with some brief breaks towards the late afternoon. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s and low 80s. Dew points will be in the upper 50s and low 60s, rendering Saturday a muggy day.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Saturday night into Sunday continue to look dry as upper level ridging promotes subsidence aloft and surface fields lack any sort of lifting mechanism. Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds will continue, particularly Sunday afternoon as the lower boundary layer mixes out. Gusts will likely be in the 20 to 30mph range during the day.

A slow moving frontal boundary will then begin to push toward the region on Monday before "fizzling" out with eastward extent. Showers and perhaps a few storms will be possible near the frontal boundary, and depending on how slow the frontal boundary progresses, precipitation could linger into Tuesday. There should be some brief drying behind the front before more active weather arrives by midweek ahead of another frontal boundary. We could see a couple rounds of showers/storms with this particular setup as the frontal boundary will likely be stalled from the Great Lakes region into the southern Plains before a shortwave ejects a low into the Plains and "kicks" everything eastward toward the end of the week. Model members and their respective ensembles have a bit of spread with the timing of features and/or rain and storm chances, so confidence in the forecast details as well as any severe weather potential for this timeframe remain low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 154 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR weather continues. BKN mid and high level clouds will linger into the afternoon hours. The primary aviation concern this morning will be winds, including LLWS through about 12z. Steady to occasionally gusty 10-20 mph winds out of the SSE are expected through sunrise, with winds forecast to increase at the surface during the daytime. SSW winds up to 45+ kts at 2 kft will linger through mid-morning. The low-level jet gradually weakens after sunrise. Mainly dry conditions are expected outside of a few possible showers at HNB this morning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.

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