Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 11:45 PM   Moonset 7:50 AM

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FXUS63 KDDC 271242 CCA AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Dodge City KS 742 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight across central Kansas and as far west as Ness City and Dodge City.

- Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for this afternoon across the southwest corner of Kansas

- Generally warm weather is forecast through next week, with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

- There are chances for thunderstorms mid to late next week, with best chances over central Kansas.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A strong upper level disturbance will approach the plains today.
Ahead of the system, low level moisture was advecting northwestward into south central Kansas. This westward push of moisture will come to a halt by 12z, with the western edge of the moisture constituting a surface dry line from near Dodge City north to Ness City. Surface low pressure will develop over western Kansas, with a warm front extending northeast from the low along the I-70 corridor by mid afternoon. The low level shear profile will be greatly enhanced along the warm front, and this is where the best chance of tornadoes should be. By 00z, a low level jet will strengthen as the main upper level trough approaches, and this will result in stronger low level shear developing southward to include much of central Kansas. There may be two periods of storms, one developing along the dryline and then moving northeast and crossing the warm front, possibly becoming tornadic. Then later this evening, another round of storms is possible if diurnal cooling is not too pronounced.
These storms would also contain very large hail and possibly tornadoes. However, all this said, there is a plausible scenario that could play out that would greatly inhibit high-end severe storms across Kansas; namely, many of the convective allowing models develop elevated storms over west Texas by 12z and then progress this convection eastward and northeastward across southwest Oklahoma and then into central Oklahoma by early to mid afternoon. Given the southerly low level flow, any cold outflow from these storms would be advected to the north, possibly resulting in cooler and drier air over central and southwest Kansas. Some moisture recovery could occur late (toward 7 pm and onward); but by this time the surface temperatures would have cooled into the upper 60s. We will not know the impact of any southern plains, elevated t-storm activity until mid morning at the earliest. Thus, this discussion gives two scenarios but doesn't provide a solution as of yet. The Storm Prediction Center indicates 10% chances of a significant tornado within 25 miles of a point confined to a line from eastern Ellis county to eastern Pratt county. But this could change in later outlooks (either lessening the threat or increasing it depending on low level air mass recovery) and longitude of storm initiation.

Another area of thunderstorms may form over extreme western Kansas in a corridor of moist and cool upslope flow on the cool side of the aforementioned warm front. Easterly low level winds and south to southwesterly mid level winds would yield a favorable hodograph for rotating, low topped storms, with possibly a small tornado or two, along with some marginally severe hail. However, by the time storms form, the warm front may be north of our forecast area (north of Hamilton county).Thus, the most favored area for severe in the upslope region is from extreme northern Hamilton county and points northward. This severe threat is also conditional since the cool air north of the front may inhibit severe convection all together. Also, low level moisture will be marginal in this area with dewpoints only in the 40s.

Drier and slightly cooler air will sweep across southwest Kansas Sunday, with highs ranging from the upper 60s northwest to mid 70s across south central Kansas. South winds will return Monday as surface troughing forms in the lee of the Rockies, resulting in highs in the upper 70s. A strong shortwave trough will traverse the central plains Tuesday, pushing a frontal boundary through southwest Kansas. Thunderstorms will likely develop as the associated front encounters the low level moisture, but this will probably not occur until the front gets into eastern Kansas, with most of central and southwest Kansas remaining dry Tuesday evening. The front will stall out by Tuesday night and probably return north as a warm front by Wednesday given the resumption of upper level troughing over the Rockies. The nocturnal low level jet may interact with low level moisture and the thermal gradient to bring a few thunderstorms to central Kansas starting Wednesday night. It is too early to tell if any of these could be severe. The upper level trough will slowly progress eastward through Thursday, possibly bringing additional rounds of thunderstorms to southwest and central Kansas. From a probabilistic viewpoint, the ECMWF and GEM ensemble means indicate 30-40 percent chances for greater than .5" of rain across central Kansas, with less than 10% across far western Kansas. Many of the individual ensemble members from both models show clustering at lower rain amounts between a quarter and a half inch across central Kansas in the Wednesday to Friday time frame.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 713 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

GEFS, ENS and GEPS were all in decent agreement this morning with an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest Monday morning moving east into the Northern Plains during the first half of the work week which will allow improving westerly downslope flow to develop over the Central Rockies. This will result in a nice warming trend early next week and given the dry conditions across southwest Kansas would not be surprised to see temperatures end up being warmer than what the latest guidance suggests, especially on Tuesday given the location of the warm wedge of 850mb temperatures ahead of an approaching cold front.
Highs ranging from 90 to 95 degrees is not out of the question south of the Arkansas river given the mean 850mb forecast temperatures at 00z Wednesday. The latest NBM probability for highs 90 degrees or higher south of the Arkansas river ranges from 50-90% with the highest chances along the Oklahoma border.

For Wednesday through Friday, while specific details are not worth detailing at this point, the approach of this wave and an associated front will bring the next chance of storms.



AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Low MVFR CIGS will develop this morning by 14-15z at KHYS as a warm front approaches from the south and low level moisture increases. A dry line will set up this afternoon, with a few thunderstorms developing in advance of it. These storms could affect KHYS and possibly KDDC between 21z and 03z. Damaging winds and large hail are possible with the strongest storms.
Winds will increase from the south later this morning and this afternoon as a warm front passes northward.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

For Wednesday through Friday, while specific details are not worth detailing at this point, the approach of this wave and an associated front will bring the next chance of storms.at 411 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Strong southwest winds and very dry air will lead to critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. This area will be south of a warm front and west of a dry line. Stronger mid level winds and very dry air will mix to the surface with daytime heating, with gusts 40-45 kts and humidities as low as 10 percent.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.

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