Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 11:11 PM   Moonset 7:14 AM

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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 446 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Rest of the overnight - SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Today - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - SW winds 10 kt - .becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Wed - NW winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming se. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 446 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a warm front lifts through the area by Sunday bringing a significant warm up heading into early next week. Additional small craft advisories may be needed due to southerly channeling Sunday into early next week. The next substantial front to cross the waters looks to arrive by Tuesday bringing renewed chances for showers and Thunderstorms.

FXUS61 KLWX 270711 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 311 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Surface high pressure moves south along the eastern Appalachians today. A warm front lifts through the area by Sunday bringing a significant warm up heading into early next week. The next chance for widespread precipitation arrives with a series of cold fronts Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A surface high just south of the southern coast of New England slides south parallel to the Mid-Atlantic coast through tonight. A weak mid-level disturbance rides atop the crest of a deep ridge aloft that is building into our area from the south. This brings a period of scattered to widespread showers this morning into the late afternoon. The highest rain chances will be west of US-15 and north of Route 33, though most will see at least a few light showers.
Cloudy skies keep highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Conditions dry out from west to east this afternoon, with precip exiting the area by early evening. Milder lows tonight in the upper 40s to 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Well above normal temperatures Sunday into Monday as a deep ridge moves across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s Sunday, then mid to upper 80s Monday with a few spots hitting 90F. Even in the mountains, highs are forecast to reach the 70s both days. A couple of climate sites could tie or be near their daily record highs for April 30 / Monday.
Very mild overnight lows mostly in the 60s, with 50s in the mountains. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure moves offshore Tuesday and a weak cold front approaches from the west with increased cloud cover, resulting in temperatures a few degrees cooler than Monday, but not much relief in the scheme of things. Highs well into the 80s are currently forecast for the duration of the extended with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Showers and thunderstorms could accompany the front in the afternoon and evening and some could be strong to severe. Decent instability will be available by the afternoon, but guidance has been weaker on the shear. Recent runs have been consistent with the better bulk shear (even then, only ~30 kt) in the morning/early afternoon and generally along the Alleghenies (morning) and west of the Blue Ridge (afternoon). As it stands, with decent CAPE not present until the afternoon, early afternoon around the I-81 corridor seems the most favorable for strong/severe storms, if any. Threat is marginal for now but will continue to monitor. A weaker shortwave moves through on Wednesday, and guidance has backed off further on the shear/CAPE environment Wednesday, so some showers seem more likely than thunderstorms.

The remainder of the week continues to look hot and unsettled with a series of weak disturbances passing through, and severe environment is similarly modest.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A weak disturbance moves across the area today, bringing periods of showers. Sub-VFR conditions are expected at CHO, MRB, and IAD, with the worst restrictions at MRB. Any CIG restrictions at DCA, BWI, and MTN would be just into MVFR and be short in duration. SE winds could occasionally gust to around 20 knots this afternoon and evening.
Shower activity ends by early evening, with conditions improving from west to east.

VFR conditions return this evening and remain in place through Monday as high pressure builds across the region. Winds vary between southwest to west at around 5-10 knots Sunday through Monday.

Sub-VFR conditions are possible with any showers and thunderstorms as a weak cold front moves through on Tuesday. More showers are possible on Wednesday but thunder seems less likely.

MARINE
Winds continue to slowly decrease over the waters early this morning, so the Small Craft Advisory has been allowed to expire.
Southeast to south winds around 10-15 knots continue most of the day.

Southerly channeling is expected to produce SCA conditions once again late this afternoon into tonight, mainly in the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay. Some surrounding tidal rivers and bays on the Eastern Shore could see SCA winds this evening, though confidence is too low to issue a SCA at this time.

High pressure builds over the region Sunday into Monday, keeping winds below SCA levels. Winds vary from southwest to west at or around 10 knots.

Southerly flow on Tuesday pick up and turn westerly behind a cold front on Tuesday and may approach SCA criteria by the afternoon.
Additionally, stronger gusts will be possible with any showers and thunderstorms passing over the waters. Winds diminish and become northwesterly on Wednesday, but some showers could bring higher gusts to the waters.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore/southeast winds will keep water levels elevated through Saturday. Coastal Flood Advisories are currently in effect for DC/SW Waterfront, Annapolis and Straits point. Additional advisories could be added for the Saturday morning high tide. Beyond that, additional flooding becomes less certain. While flow remains south/southwest, high pressure and light winds may allow for gradual draining of water from the estuary.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ531>534-537-543.

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Maryland Point Light
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:39 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:32 AM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:49 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:19 PM EDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Maryland Point Light, Maryland, Tide feet

Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:58 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:56 AM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:21 PM EDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aquia Creek, Virginia, Tide feet

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