Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Florence, CO
April 27, 2024 1:43 AM MDT (07:43 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:06 AM Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 11:07 PM Moonset 7:09 AM |
Area Discussion for - Pueblo, CO
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FXUS65 KPUB 270501 AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1101 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Heavy snow spreads into the mountains tonight through Saturday, with heavy rain possible for El Paso county.
- Critical Fire Weather conditions expected for Baca county with one or two strong storms possible for the southeast plains north of highway 50 Saturday afternoon.
- Showers expected across the region Saturday night, with snow showers for higher elevations and rain and rain/snow mix for lower elevations.
- Showers blossom again Sunday afternoon, before quikcly dissipate Sunday night.
- Quieter weather expected for much of next week, with singals for the possiblility of more unsettled late next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024
A complex weather scenario with a variety of weather hazards will impact southern CO over the next 24 hours as a closed low taking shape over the Great Basin moves through the 4 Corners region tonight and lifts into eastern CO on Saturday. As upper level difluence overspreads the area, rain and snow showers will spread into the mountains this evening with snow levels dropping after midnight as colder air aloft moves in. First wave of WAA/overrunning will generate widespread rain/snow showers and embedded thunderstorms along the I-25 corridor, mainly north of highway 50 after midnight, concentrating heaviest QPF across the Pikes Peak region Saturday morning before lifting northward.
Snowfall totals will be heavily reliant on snow levels and temperatures in the higher res models have come down in most recent runs. Teller county is of greatest concern as temperatures drop to around or slightly above freezing towards morning with snow levels dropping to around or a little below 8kft. Have upgraded winter storm watches with winter storm warnings though expect quite a gradient by elevation with most impacts above 8500-9000 feet where some areas will receive over a foot of snow, and closer to 30 inches on the top of Pikes Peak. Palmer Divide could see a rain/snow change over Saturday morning with some visibility impacts during the heavier snow, but the ground warmth should limit accumulations to up to 3 inches on grassy surfaces. High res models have been wavering these details from run to run, so this will need to be watched closely. Meanwhile, southerly flow upsloping into the Palmer Divide overtop of the frontal boundary will mean some fairly healthy rainfall amounts across the remainder of El Paso county with up to 1.5 inches of rain over the 36 hour period. This will likely lead to some enhanced runoff but within bank flows given the dry antecedent conditions. Other areas with impacts from heavy snow will be the Upper Arkansas River valley with elevations above 8500 feet seeing snowfall totals in the advisory range, and warning numbers (around 1 foot or more) across the higher elevations above 11kft. A mix of warnings and advisories have been posted for Lake and Chaffee county.
All other headlines remain unchanged. Did bump the start time a little later for the southeast mountains with the heaviest spreading in after midnight.
Across the plains, the surface low/surface boundary will lift back northward with dry, windy southwest flow overspreading the southeast corner of the state. Critical fire weather conditions will be met across Baca county and a Red Flag Warning has been issued. North of the northward advancing boundary, there will be a ribbon of instability and the potential for one or two strong to severe storms, particularly north of highway 50 where HRRR members show some helicity streaks with thunderstorms as they lift northward into more favorable deep layer shear and SRH in the 100-200 m2/s2.
Marginally severe hail looks to be the main risk as parameters look more favorable to the north of the CWA But trends have been pointing to a slower advancing warm front, so some of our northern counties, Kiowa, Crowley and perhaps even NE El Paso if sufficient CAPE can be realized, may become under increasingly favorable conditions for a severe storm or two. Can not rule out an brief weak tornado immediately behind the front if residence time within narrow axis of instability is sufficient. -KT
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Saturday Night: Saturday night will bring the tale end of more impactful weather as a large trough starts exiting the south central and southeast Colorado area. Throughout the night, the trough will be pushing eastward, and while forcing will start to lessen heading into Sunday morning, synoptic forcing and orographic forcing will continue to some extent during this timeframe. With the forcing still in place, and moisture still residing over the region, showers are expected throughout the overnight hours, with the heaviest showers expected along the mountains. The snow level will hover around 7,000 feet throughout the night. Areas generally around and above this value are expected to remain all snow, while areas generally around and below this value are expected to be a rain to rain/snow mix. As mentioned though, forcing will be lessening overnight, and in response to that, any showers across the area will decrease in coverage and intensity heading into Sunday morning.
Looking at temperatures, a mild night is expected, as clouds help to limit optimal cooling, keeping the region at to slightly above seasonal values for overnight.
Sunday: Some active weather continues for the end of the weekend. A shortwave will swing around the western periphery of the exiting larger trough. While this wave won't be as strong or organized, it will still bring an uptick in forcing, especially during the afternoon and evening. Given this wave, showers will again bloom over the region during the day, with the greatest coverage of showers during the afternoon and evening hours. Snow is anticipated for the mountains, with rain expected for the lower elevations and most of the valleys. There is some minor instability that will be present during the afternoon, so some rumbles of thunder and brief periods of heavier precipitation will be possible. As this wave treks eastward Sunday evening and night though, precipitation present across the area will lessen in coverage and intensity from west to east. As for temperatures, a slight rebound to warmer values is expected to near seasonal values, though daytime clouds will hinder warming potential.
Monday - Thursday: For the rest of the long term period, relatively quiet weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. Flow will become predominantly westerly over the region, which ensemble model guidance are in decent agreement on. Given the lack of major forcing with this flow pattern, dry conditions are expected, with the exception of isolated light showers along the mountains given weak orographic forcing. With that all said, there are hints of a more unsettled and meridional flow pattern developing during the midweek week period and into the later half of the week, which could bring more precipitation chances to the area. Confidence is low though at this time on how, if at all, this more wavy pattern will influence the region. Temperatures during this period will continue to warm, with many parts of south central and southeastern Colorado warming to above seasonal values for late April to early May.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1050 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024
A strong upper low across the Four Corners region this evening, will continue to move north and east into southeast Colorado through the late morning before continuing to lift out into northeastern Colorado Saturday night. This system will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to COS and PUB aft 09Z, with MFVR and IFR condtions expected in rain and higher elevation snow, Saturday morning and afternoon, before precipitation continues to lift out later Saturday afternoon and evening, as breezy northerly winds take hold through the rest of the taf period.
At ALS, could brief MVFR conditions with showers at the terminal through 12Z, as the upper low moves across south central Colorado. Breezy south to southwest winds at the terminal through the early afternoon will give way to gusty northwest winds later in the afternoon, with the potential for a few showers into the evening.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ058-060-081- 082.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ059-061- 063-066-068-073-076.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday night for COZ084.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for COZ237.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1101 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Heavy snow spreads into the mountains tonight through Saturday, with heavy rain possible for El Paso county.
- Critical Fire Weather conditions expected for Baca county with one or two strong storms possible for the southeast plains north of highway 50 Saturday afternoon.
- Showers expected across the region Saturday night, with snow showers for higher elevations and rain and rain/snow mix for lower elevations.
- Showers blossom again Sunday afternoon, before quikcly dissipate Sunday night.
- Quieter weather expected for much of next week, with singals for the possiblility of more unsettled late next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024
A complex weather scenario with a variety of weather hazards will impact southern CO over the next 24 hours as a closed low taking shape over the Great Basin moves through the 4 Corners region tonight and lifts into eastern CO on Saturday. As upper level difluence overspreads the area, rain and snow showers will spread into the mountains this evening with snow levels dropping after midnight as colder air aloft moves in. First wave of WAA/overrunning will generate widespread rain/snow showers and embedded thunderstorms along the I-25 corridor, mainly north of highway 50 after midnight, concentrating heaviest QPF across the Pikes Peak region Saturday morning before lifting northward.
Snowfall totals will be heavily reliant on snow levels and temperatures in the higher res models have come down in most recent runs. Teller county is of greatest concern as temperatures drop to around or slightly above freezing towards morning with snow levels dropping to around or a little below 8kft. Have upgraded winter storm watches with winter storm warnings though expect quite a gradient by elevation with most impacts above 8500-9000 feet where some areas will receive over a foot of snow, and closer to 30 inches on the top of Pikes Peak. Palmer Divide could see a rain/snow change over Saturday morning with some visibility impacts during the heavier snow, but the ground warmth should limit accumulations to up to 3 inches on grassy surfaces. High res models have been wavering these details from run to run, so this will need to be watched closely. Meanwhile, southerly flow upsloping into the Palmer Divide overtop of the frontal boundary will mean some fairly healthy rainfall amounts across the remainder of El Paso county with up to 1.5 inches of rain over the 36 hour period. This will likely lead to some enhanced runoff but within bank flows given the dry antecedent conditions. Other areas with impacts from heavy snow will be the Upper Arkansas River valley with elevations above 8500 feet seeing snowfall totals in the advisory range, and warning numbers (around 1 foot or more) across the higher elevations above 11kft. A mix of warnings and advisories have been posted for Lake and Chaffee county.
All other headlines remain unchanged. Did bump the start time a little later for the southeast mountains with the heaviest spreading in after midnight.
Across the plains, the surface low/surface boundary will lift back northward with dry, windy southwest flow overspreading the southeast corner of the state. Critical fire weather conditions will be met across Baca county and a Red Flag Warning has been issued. North of the northward advancing boundary, there will be a ribbon of instability and the potential for one or two strong to severe storms, particularly north of highway 50 where HRRR members show some helicity streaks with thunderstorms as they lift northward into more favorable deep layer shear and SRH in the 100-200 m2/s2.
Marginally severe hail looks to be the main risk as parameters look more favorable to the north of the CWA But trends have been pointing to a slower advancing warm front, so some of our northern counties, Kiowa, Crowley and perhaps even NE El Paso if sufficient CAPE can be realized, may become under increasingly favorable conditions for a severe storm or two. Can not rule out an brief weak tornado immediately behind the front if residence time within narrow axis of instability is sufficient. -KT
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Saturday Night: Saturday night will bring the tale end of more impactful weather as a large trough starts exiting the south central and southeast Colorado area. Throughout the night, the trough will be pushing eastward, and while forcing will start to lessen heading into Sunday morning, synoptic forcing and orographic forcing will continue to some extent during this timeframe. With the forcing still in place, and moisture still residing over the region, showers are expected throughout the overnight hours, with the heaviest showers expected along the mountains. The snow level will hover around 7,000 feet throughout the night. Areas generally around and above this value are expected to remain all snow, while areas generally around and below this value are expected to be a rain to rain/snow mix. As mentioned though, forcing will be lessening overnight, and in response to that, any showers across the area will decrease in coverage and intensity heading into Sunday morning.
Looking at temperatures, a mild night is expected, as clouds help to limit optimal cooling, keeping the region at to slightly above seasonal values for overnight.
Sunday: Some active weather continues for the end of the weekend. A shortwave will swing around the western periphery of the exiting larger trough. While this wave won't be as strong or organized, it will still bring an uptick in forcing, especially during the afternoon and evening. Given this wave, showers will again bloom over the region during the day, with the greatest coverage of showers during the afternoon and evening hours. Snow is anticipated for the mountains, with rain expected for the lower elevations and most of the valleys. There is some minor instability that will be present during the afternoon, so some rumbles of thunder and brief periods of heavier precipitation will be possible. As this wave treks eastward Sunday evening and night though, precipitation present across the area will lessen in coverage and intensity from west to east. As for temperatures, a slight rebound to warmer values is expected to near seasonal values, though daytime clouds will hinder warming potential.
Monday - Thursday: For the rest of the long term period, relatively quiet weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. Flow will become predominantly westerly over the region, which ensemble model guidance are in decent agreement on. Given the lack of major forcing with this flow pattern, dry conditions are expected, with the exception of isolated light showers along the mountains given weak orographic forcing. With that all said, there are hints of a more unsettled and meridional flow pattern developing during the midweek week period and into the later half of the week, which could bring more precipitation chances to the area. Confidence is low though at this time on how, if at all, this more wavy pattern will influence the region. Temperatures during this period will continue to warm, with many parts of south central and southeastern Colorado warming to above seasonal values for late April to early May.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1050 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024
A strong upper low across the Four Corners region this evening, will continue to move north and east into southeast Colorado through the late morning before continuing to lift out into northeastern Colorado Saturday night. This system will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to COS and PUB aft 09Z, with MFVR and IFR condtions expected in rain and higher elevation snow, Saturday morning and afternoon, before precipitation continues to lift out later Saturday afternoon and evening, as breezy northerly winds take hold through the rest of the taf period.
At ALS, could brief MVFR conditions with showers at the terminal through 12Z, as the upper low moves across south central Colorado. Breezy south to southwest winds at the terminal through the early afternoon will give way to gusty northwest winds later in the afternoon, with the potential for a few showers into the evening.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ058-060-081- 082.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ059-061- 063-066-068-073-076.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday night for COZ084.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for COZ237.
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Pueblo, CO,
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