Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 11:43 PM   Moonset 7:41 AM

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FXUS63 KICT 271126 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 626 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms likely this afternoon through tonight with all hazards possible.

- Slight risk of severe lingers Sunday in southeast Kansas.

- Unsettled with convective potential again by mid-week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2024

Shallow moisture was returning early this morning with stratus cigs accompanying the low to mid-60s dew points. Various short term/convective allowing models continue to show a spread in outcomes regarding convective evolution/trends mainly during the daylight hours. There still is general support with some timing/placement differences in convection developing toward midday with the deeper low level moisture advection somewhere along/just east of the I-135 corridor. The main question/concern is how extensive in coverage this convection may become in the uncapped and increasingly unstable airmass in the open warm sector. If they remain somewhat more widely spaced (even though not necessarily discrete) they will pose a higher probability for large hail and a tornado given the impressive the hodographs in the point forecast soundings. The dry-line will remain more of a focus across west central Kansas during the mid to late afternoon which poses another risk area of significant severe weather/tornadoes. While somewhat more conditional, there appears there could be a window for localized convergence in concert with the stronger forcing for ascent ejecting out ahead of the main upper trof. A third area of concern will be along the warm front which will become quasi-stationary this afternoon which looks to impact areas just north of the I-70 corridor.
There is much more confidence in the convective trends by later this evening and tonight where the severe threat will transition more into areas of locally heavy/training rainfall across southeast Kansas where a Flood Watch will remain in effect. The main upper low/trof will lift more bodily northeastward on Sunday through Sunday night across the Midwest/northern Plains. The surface cold front will merge with the dry-line across eastern Kansas with a renewed severe risk across southeast Kansas before exiting by Sunday evening.

Low level moisture will be shunted south of the area with dry and seasonably mild weather expected for Monday, before moisture returns by mid-week providing renewed precip/convective chances across the area.

Darmofal

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

MVFR CIGS are ongoing at all sites except RSL. These CIGS will gradually scatter back to VFR through mid to late morning.
Otherwise, the main concern through the period is the development of severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Introduced VCTS and TEMPO TSRA groups at ICT and CNU where confidence is greatest for periods of storms. Lower confidence continues elsewhere for TSRA and have decided to maintain the PROB30 groups for the most likely timeframe.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

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