Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Palmer Lake, CO
April 27, 2024 6:55 AM MDT (12:55 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:03 AM Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 8:05 AM |
Area Discussion for - Pueblo, CO
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FXUS65 KPUB 271144 AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 544 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Heavy snow likely this morning across Teller and parts of northern El Paso county, especially later this morning.
- There is a chance for a tornado or two over the far eastern plains, especially over Kiowa, Prowers and Bent counties.
- Critical fire danger today over Baca county.
- Heavy precip. >1.0 liquid equivalent; over Pikes Peak region.
UPDATE
Issued at 537 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024
No substantial changes made to grids other than to fine tune pops as the system moves across the region and wrap around band of rain/snow showers continues into the evening. Heaviest snow still looks to fall this morning across the Pikes Peak region, though northerly flow on the back side will keep some light to moderate snow continuing through the evening across the central mountains, Pikes Peak Region and Monument Hill.
Potential for one or two strong to severe thunderstorms with hail around 1 inch in diameter, wind gusts to 60 mph and a brief tornado or two still looks likely across northern portions of the southeast plains today, with Kiowa county under the greatest risk. This should be an early show with stronger thunderstorm development ramping up around noon and maximizing between 2 and 4 PM across Kiowa county as the boundary lifts northward.
Overall, mainly cosmetic changes made to forecast grids with minor changes in timing. -KT
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 221 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Currently...
An IMPRESSIVE upper level low, with a very well defined circulation, was located over northeast AZ early this morning. quite a few showers and some TSRA were noted over the 4 corners states, with some pretty intense lightning activity for this time of day over east central WY.
Over our plains, a boundary was located generally just north of the CO/NM state line. To the north of this boundary, dwpts have crept back to above 40F while south of this line and int the mtns, dewpts were in th3 20s and 30s.
This morning...
an intense band of precip is expected to move over parts of the region today, with the greatest impacts over parts of the southern mtns, a good part of the I-25 corridor and especially the Pikes Peak region. With the center of the upper low fcst to move over the Pikes Peak region, and strong lift moving over the same area, heavy precip is likely, and the cool air aloft is going to be brought down to the surface, causing an isothermal column to develop over the above mentioned region. With the entire column being below freezing, heavy snow is anticipated starting prior to sunrise and lasting into late AM or early PM, with the greatest impacts over the Pikes Peak region and surrounding areas. Heavy snow is likely across Teller county, western El Paso county and parts of northern EL Paso county.
especially elevations above 6500 feet. Areas from 6000 to 6500 will also see some snow during the heaviest period of precip, while areas below 6000 will just see moderate to heavy rain. Thunder is likely.
Snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour will be possible for a couple of hours. The snow will be wet and will settle quickly (not to mention the ground is warm), so settling/melting is likely. Travel will become difficult due to the heavy snow (low vis and slush accumulating).
Over the remainder of the region snow will be likely at higher elevations with rain over the lower valleys. The plains generally west of a line from roughly La Junta to Trinidad will see precip while areas west of this line will likely not see much in the way of any accumulating widespread precip.
This afternoon...
A well define surface boundary is likely to form over parts of the plains. Where exactly this boundary form is not certain, but it will likely extend roughly east-west across the plains and will lift slowly north as the surface low gets spun up and eventually pushes east into KS late today. During the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are likely to form on this enhanced area of shear, and several low topped supercells will be possible. With a favorable low level shear pattern in place, one or two tornadoes will be possible. SPC has a 2% tor prob extending into part of the region, especially the greater Kiowa county region. All of the CAMS have helicity streaks over parts of the plains today, especially Bent, Prowers and Kiowa county. It should be noted a setup similar to this one occurred back in April 2007 where 11 tornadoes developed over east central Colorado. Given the relatively weak CAPE (500 or so Joules), the tornadoes, if they develop, will likely be on the weaker side.
Snow will likely be continuing over the higher elevations of the Palmer Divide, but is not expected to be as heavy as this mornings precip.
Far southeast Colorado, mainly Baca county, will see red flag conditions today.
Tonight...
Periods of snow will continue over the higher elevations and parts of northern El Paso county, especially during the evening hours.
Higher elevation snow will be possible over the rest of the higher terrain. showers will be possibe over the plains. The winter weather highlight over the higher elevations will expire by sunrise tomorrow.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 221 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Sunday will unsettled with showers over the mtns, valley and I-25 corridor, with dry weather over the far eastern plains expected.
Temps on the pains will be in the 60s, with 50s valleys and 30s through 50s mtns.
Monday will warm up and will be dry over the area. Tuesday temps will increase further, with 80s returning to the plains, and around 70 valleys. This warm and dry pattern will continue into Wednesday.
Another stronger storm will push into the region by late week bringing more mtn snows and showers to the lower elevations. There could be periods of near critical fire weather conditions over the far eastern plain Tue and Wed.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 537 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024
KCOS...
Heavy precip will continue at KCOS and last into early afternoon. During the heavier precip times, colder air will likely be dragged down, and some of the precip could be snow.
Thunder will be possibe during the heavy precip. IFR and LIFR conditions will be likely due to reduced vis due to the precip.
The precip should end during early afternoon, but low cigs are anticipated to remain over the airport through early tomorrow morning.
KPUB...
Heavy precip with MVFR cigs is expected to continue over KPUB through late morning. Precip will likely end but low clouds are anticipated to linger through the remainder of the taf time period. All the precip should be rain. Some thunder is possible.
KALS...
Passing shower will be possible with periods of MVFR conditions possible during the next 24 hours. Isolated thunder cant be ruled out.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ058-060-081- 082.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ059-061- 063-066-068-073-076.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ084.
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ237.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 544 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Heavy snow likely this morning across Teller and parts of northern El Paso county, especially later this morning.
- There is a chance for a tornado or two over the far eastern plains, especially over Kiowa, Prowers and Bent counties.
- Critical fire danger today over Baca county.
- Heavy precip. >1.0 liquid equivalent; over Pikes Peak region.
UPDATE
Issued at 537 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024
No substantial changes made to grids other than to fine tune pops as the system moves across the region and wrap around band of rain/snow showers continues into the evening. Heaviest snow still looks to fall this morning across the Pikes Peak region, though northerly flow on the back side will keep some light to moderate snow continuing through the evening across the central mountains, Pikes Peak Region and Monument Hill.
Potential for one or two strong to severe thunderstorms with hail around 1 inch in diameter, wind gusts to 60 mph and a brief tornado or two still looks likely across northern portions of the southeast plains today, with Kiowa county under the greatest risk. This should be an early show with stronger thunderstorm development ramping up around noon and maximizing between 2 and 4 PM across Kiowa county as the boundary lifts northward.
Overall, mainly cosmetic changes made to forecast grids with minor changes in timing. -KT
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 221 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Currently...
An IMPRESSIVE upper level low, with a very well defined circulation, was located over northeast AZ early this morning. quite a few showers and some TSRA were noted over the 4 corners states, with some pretty intense lightning activity for this time of day over east central WY.
Over our plains, a boundary was located generally just north of the CO/NM state line. To the north of this boundary, dwpts have crept back to above 40F while south of this line and int the mtns, dewpts were in th3 20s and 30s.
This morning...
an intense band of precip is expected to move over parts of the region today, with the greatest impacts over parts of the southern mtns, a good part of the I-25 corridor and especially the Pikes Peak region. With the center of the upper low fcst to move over the Pikes Peak region, and strong lift moving over the same area, heavy precip is likely, and the cool air aloft is going to be brought down to the surface, causing an isothermal column to develop over the above mentioned region. With the entire column being below freezing, heavy snow is anticipated starting prior to sunrise and lasting into late AM or early PM, with the greatest impacts over the Pikes Peak region and surrounding areas. Heavy snow is likely across Teller county, western El Paso county and parts of northern EL Paso county.
especially elevations above 6500 feet. Areas from 6000 to 6500 will also see some snow during the heaviest period of precip, while areas below 6000 will just see moderate to heavy rain. Thunder is likely.
Snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour will be possible for a couple of hours. The snow will be wet and will settle quickly (not to mention the ground is warm), so settling/melting is likely. Travel will become difficult due to the heavy snow (low vis and slush accumulating).
Over the remainder of the region snow will be likely at higher elevations with rain over the lower valleys. The plains generally west of a line from roughly La Junta to Trinidad will see precip while areas west of this line will likely not see much in the way of any accumulating widespread precip.
This afternoon...
A well define surface boundary is likely to form over parts of the plains. Where exactly this boundary form is not certain, but it will likely extend roughly east-west across the plains and will lift slowly north as the surface low gets spun up and eventually pushes east into KS late today. During the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are likely to form on this enhanced area of shear, and several low topped supercells will be possible. With a favorable low level shear pattern in place, one or two tornadoes will be possible. SPC has a 2% tor prob extending into part of the region, especially the greater Kiowa county region. All of the CAMS have helicity streaks over parts of the plains today, especially Bent, Prowers and Kiowa county. It should be noted a setup similar to this one occurred back in April 2007 where 11 tornadoes developed over east central Colorado. Given the relatively weak CAPE (500 or so Joules), the tornadoes, if they develop, will likely be on the weaker side.
Snow will likely be continuing over the higher elevations of the Palmer Divide, but is not expected to be as heavy as this mornings precip.
Far southeast Colorado, mainly Baca county, will see red flag conditions today.
Tonight...
Periods of snow will continue over the higher elevations and parts of northern El Paso county, especially during the evening hours.
Higher elevation snow will be possible over the rest of the higher terrain. showers will be possibe over the plains. The winter weather highlight over the higher elevations will expire by sunrise tomorrow.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 221 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Sunday will unsettled with showers over the mtns, valley and I-25 corridor, with dry weather over the far eastern plains expected.
Temps on the pains will be in the 60s, with 50s valleys and 30s through 50s mtns.
Monday will warm up and will be dry over the area. Tuesday temps will increase further, with 80s returning to the plains, and around 70 valleys. This warm and dry pattern will continue into Wednesday.
Another stronger storm will push into the region by late week bringing more mtn snows and showers to the lower elevations. There could be periods of near critical fire weather conditions over the far eastern plain Tue and Wed.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 537 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024
KCOS...
Heavy precip will continue at KCOS and last into early afternoon. During the heavier precip times, colder air will likely be dragged down, and some of the precip could be snow.
Thunder will be possibe during the heavy precip. IFR and LIFR conditions will be likely due to reduced vis due to the precip.
The precip should end during early afternoon, but low cigs are anticipated to remain over the airport through early tomorrow morning.
KPUB...
Heavy precip with MVFR cigs is expected to continue over KPUB through late morning. Precip will likely end but low clouds are anticipated to linger through the remainder of the taf time period. All the precip should be rain. Some thunder is possible.
KALS...
Passing shower will be possible with periods of MVFR conditions possible during the next 24 hours. Isolated thunder cant be ruled out.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ058-060-081- 082.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ059-061- 063-066-068-073-076.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ084.
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ237.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KAFF USAF ACADEMY AFLD,CO | 15 sm | 1.7 hrs | NNE 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 36°F | 34°F | 93% | 29.76 |
Denver/Boulder, CO,
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