Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 4:06 PM   Moonset 3:08 AM

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FXUS61 KILN 191949 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 349 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Much above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected through Monday, with a chance of showers and storms returning as early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance for showers and storms is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night with the approach and passage of a cold front. Slightly cooler and drier conditions are in store for the end of workweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Narrow mid level ridge over the area this afternoon with only scattered shallow cumulus clouds over the area. This ridge is offering a lack of forcing and has inhibited convective development. Moderate instby has developed to our northwest around the periphery of the mid level ridge closer to a weak front. The front will stall out across the southern Great Lakes but an isolated shower or storm could encroach into west central Ohio this evening prior to dissipating.

With the exception of some valley fog - the overnight is expected to be quiet.

Mild lows tonight range from 60 to 65 with some upper 50s in rural sheltered locations.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Mid level ridge to remain centered just to ILN/s south Monday/Monday night.Expect daylight hours on Monday to remain dry with few to scattered cumulus clouds. Another warm day is in store for the region with highs in the mid and upper 80s.

A shortwave tracks thru the Great Lakes with the ridge being suppressed a little further south Monday night. Most models keep the area dry but a few of the solutions allow a shower/thunderstorm to drop into ILN/s northern counties late Monday night. Have kept the forecast dry at this time but there is some uncertainty.

Mild temperatures drop to lows in the lower and middle 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A warm day will be in place for Tuesday with high temperatures in the upper 80s. There will be the potential for afternoon pop up thunderstorms with the heating of the day. These will dissipate during the evening leaving a brief period of dry conditions.

An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected during the morning hours on Wednesday. How quickly this moves out will have an impact on how widespread the severe weather will be later in the day.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these thunderstorms will have the potential to be severe with damaging winds. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out. In addition, due to several rounds of precipitation expected, flash flooding will also be a concern. Expect this activity to continue into the night as a cold front works through the region. This feature will continue to push through on Thursday and precipitation chances will taper off.

Cooler air will be ushered into the region with highs in the 70s expected for Thursday and lows in the 50s Thursday night. There is still quite a bit of model variation for Friday into the weekend on how much moisture will be drawn up into the region. Due to continued uncertainty during this time have limited precipitation chances Friday through Sunday to no more than the chance category.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Scattered fair weather shallow cumulus clouds have developed under the influence of mid level ridging.

These clouds should linger into early evening, especially near KDAY, as a weak front boundary and a few showers approach west central Ohio. The isold showers are expected to remain north of the TAF sites. Some valley fog will be possible overnight with MVFR conditions forecast at KLUK.

VFR conditions for Monday with only few to scattered cumulus clouds and some thin high level clouds.

Light northerly winds will become light and variable overnight and then south at less than 10 kts Monday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Wednesday into Wednesday night.
MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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