Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 11:18 PM   Moonset 6:49 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS61 KBGM 270705 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 305 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in control through tonight with calm and dry conditions. A warm front swings through the region Saturday through Sunday bringing a chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Much warmer weather is forecast Sunday and especially Monday, with above average temperatures continuing into the middle of next week. The best chance for rain and thunderstorms will be on Tuesday as a front crosses the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
1230 AM Update...

High clouds have moved into the region allowing temperatures to fall in a more steady manor. Minor changes were made to update temperatures with current observations. Otherwise previous forecast remains on track at this time.

720 PM Update...

Forecast remains mostly on-track and just delayed the arrival of clouds later tonight by a couple of hours.

230 PM Update

Dry and mainly clear conditions continue this evening under high pressure. Winds remain light and variable into the evening, as temperatures fall back into the upper 40s to mid-50s by sunset.

High level clouds gradually increase overnight, especially after midnight as the surface high slides off the East Coast. The pressure gradient begins to increase between the high and incoming frontal system; south winds will gradually increase between 5 to 15 mph for the second half of the overnight.
Temperatures fall fairly quickly this evening, but then level off late at night with the gradual increase of clouds and winds...expect overnight lows ranging in the 30s to low 40s.

Saturday morning looks to start off dry with plenty of low and mid level dry air still in place. High clouds lower and thicken through the day. There are very minor timing difference in the CAMS, likely depending on just how fast the low levels can moisture up. Overall, the consensus is for light rain to break out west of I-81 by late morning to early afternoon...with some light rain spreading east of I-81 during the late afternoon and evening hours. With the dry air in place initially, temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to mid-50s later in the day due to wet bulbing as the cool rain falls. The warmest temperatures are expected across the I-90 corridor to Mohawk Valley where morning sunshine only gradually fades and showers hold off until early evening...Highs look to reach 60-65 degrees here. The rest of the forecast area will see highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Rainfall amounts during the daytime hours will be light; generally up to a tenth of an inch.

Scattered showers and clouds linger Saturday night with the warm frontal boundary becoming quasi-stationary over the area. Later at night elevated instability arrives and there could be a few thunderstorms, especially over CNY. Forecast soundings show a strong inversion remaining present over the area below 925mb, but then potentially several hundred or more J/Kg of elevated CAPE over the Finger Lakes and Central NY late Saturday night.
It will be milder with lows in the 40s to near 50.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Recent trends continue with the warm sector ahead of the next cold front having less northward extent into our region. This keeps the boundary nearby Sunday night through Monday night. Enough lift and moisture look to be present for isolated to scattered showers. Some weak instability looks to be present also adding in the potential for a few thunderstorms as well. With the increase in moisture, temperatures Sunday night only fall into the 50's. With more clouds around Monday temperatures have continued to trend slightly cooler as most locations look to top off in the upper 70's now. Monday night still looks rather muggy as most locations again struggle to fall much below 60.



LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The main low pressure system and cold front is modeled to move through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will serve to bring us more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. Instability on ensemble guidance has trended more disorganized given the shorter window in the warm sector. Still 500- 1,000 J/KG surface CAPE with dewpoints into the low 60's could be realized. In terms of any thunderstorm organization 0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to be around 30-40 knots ahead of the front which may lead to thunderstorm organization into linear segments with a gusty wind threat. However, could see quite a bit of cloud cover and modeled lapse rates have been constantly modeled as poor.

Taking a look at Tuesday from a hydrological perspective. PW values do look to rise above an inch with some favorable vector profiles as well for training thunderstorms. This is showing up as well with some ensemble members painting localized 1-2 inch rainfall amounts over portions of the region which gets close to 6 hr FFG.

This frontal boundary washes out east of the region so not much of a cooling trend for the middle of next week. We may end up getting a drier window Wednesday and Thursday before our next frontal boundary and chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Friday. Lows in the 50's and highs in the 70's generally.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure slides east of our region this evening with high clouds moving in. VFR conditions expected at all terminals overnight and into tomorrow morning. LLWS may be possible from 08-12Z at SYR early tomorrow morning, but confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF.

MVFR to Fuel Alt Restrictions return at all sites tomorrow afternoon as scattered rain showers move in. Fuel Alt to IFR conditions settle in at most terminals tomorrow evening. Higher confidence that ELM/ITH/BGM may see IFR ceilings.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Sunday..Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.

Monday...Mainly VFR expected. Perhaps an isolated shower or t'storm in the afternoon/evening.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in rain showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for a shower.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

Kingston Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:52 AM EDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:03 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:32 PM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:47 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Tivoli
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:22 AM EDT     4.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:33 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:02 PM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:17 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tivoli, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Albany, NY,