Silver Creek, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Silver Creek, NY

April 27, 2024 8:18 AM EDT (12:18 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM
Moonrise 11:38 PM   Moonset 7:05 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Expires:202404270915;;436586 Fzus51 Kbuf 270119 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 919 pm edt Fri apr 26 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-270915- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 919 pm edt Fri apr 26 2024

Overnight - East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy late this evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Saturday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Occasional showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Saturday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Sunday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Sunday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Monday - South winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.

Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Creek, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 271131 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 731 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will push across areas south of Lake Ontario today and the North Country tonight...and in the process will bring our region some showers. While just about everyone can be assured a shower or two...today and tonight will NOT be a wash out
In fact
the vast majority of the time will be rain free.Following the passage of the warm front...summerlike warmth will overspread our region for both Sunday and Monday... before a passing cold front will bring the next opportunity for more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of this writing...an initial cutter-type low pressure system is located over Minnesota...with its attendant warm front extending southeastward across Michigan to northeast Ohio. Initial band of showers along/out ahead of this front largely fell apart over the past few hours as it ran into drier air/upper level ridging draped across our region...while additional scattered convection has developed over western Ohio and west-central Lake Erie...where some weak elevated instability is present.

During the course of today...the surface low will continue to weaken as it lifts across Lake Superior and into central Ontario Province...with its warm front doing the same as it pushes across western New York and becomes further displaced from its parent...and encounters drier air and continued resistance from upper level ridging aloft
Consequently
the scattered to numerous showers attendant to the front will eventually tend to become weaker and more scattered as the boundary pushes across western New York...and have continued to reflect this in the forecast with a general slow decrease in PoPs along the boundary as it makes its way eastward.
While some very limited lightning is currently present over western Ohio and west-central Lake Erie as mentioned above...this activity will be moving into more stable air aloft as it makes its way eastward...and with this in mind have removed any slight chance of thunder for today as the potential for this appears rather minuscule at best.

With respect to today's high temperatures...these will be coolest from the interior southern Tier across the Finger Lakes with the front and showers/thickest cloud cover expected to cross these areas during peak heating...resulting in highs there remaining confined to the mid 50s to lower 60s
Further east across the North Country
the later arrival of the thicker clouds and showers and downsloping will allow highs there to reach into the lower to mid 60s. The warmest overall readings are most likely to be found across far western New York...where the clouds and showers should tend to thin out at least somewhat as the warm sector starts to become established later on in the day...and where the combined effects of downsloping and a warmer airmass should help to boost readings higher than what is currently suggested by the vast majority of the guidance. While the temperature forecast across far WNY has some significant bust potential (in both directions...as it could turn out notably cooler if the clouds/showers hang on longer than expected...or notably warmer if we get any sun given the warmth of the incoming airmass)...at this point still expect highs to reach the mid-upper 60s across Niagara County and the lower elevations of Erie County...and the lower 70s along the Lake Erie shoreline of Chautauqua county.

Moving on into tonight...the warm frontal boundary will continue to weaken as it crosses the North Country...with any showers along it also continuing to generally weaken and become more scattered over time. Meanwhile further west the warm sector will continue to establish itself across the remainder of the region. While much of the guidance tries to redevelop some additional showers across western New York overnight...feel that this is overdone given the apparent lack of a significant trigger for additional convection.
While a few more widely separated showers cannot be completely ruled out given the broad/weak warm advection regime that will be in place aloft...feel that these are currently not worth much more than some slight chance PoPs...and have thus continued to undercut machine numbers
Otherwise
the very mild incoming airmass and a continued decent south to south-southwesterly breeze will result in low temperatures more typical of late May or June...with overnight mins expected to range from around 50 across the North Country to near 60 along the Lake Erie shoreline.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A mid level ridge aloft will build northward into our region Sunday and Monday. The remnants of a convective wave may track along the top of the ridge on Sunday, bringing a chance of showers and possibly an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. The ridge will build further northward and bring dry weather late Sunday night into Monday. Monday afternoon there may be scattered instability showers or thunderstorms inland of the lake breeze across the Western Southern Tier.

The ridge will gradually shift to the east, which will allow a weak shortwave and cold front to approach from the west Monday night with the cold front moving across the region during Tuesday. Some pre- frontal instability, but it appears its timing will be on the early side for diurnal instability to fully develop. There likely (60-70%)
will be some showers with some embedded thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage from the Genesee River Valley eastward. With modest wind profiles and instability, these appear to be of the garden variety.

It will be warm with above normal temperatures during the period.
Highs Sunday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, then a frontal boundary will sharpen across the region on Monday. It'll be notably cooler from Buffalo to Rochester northward with highs mainly the 60s along the south shores of Lake Ontario and east of Lake Ontario.
However, the Western Southern Tier up to about Buffalo will break into the warm sector, with 80F still a good possibility near the Pennsylvania state line. Slightly cooler with the showers and frontal passage on Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The weak frontal boundary will exit to the east of the area Tuesday night, with lingering showers and storms tapering off. Then a weak mid-level ridge will maintain mostly dry weather for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Model consensus then shows a subtle trough over the Northeast, however some ensemble members show the potential for a ridge to build into the region. In general this trend supports low chance (30%) chances for showers Thursday and 40-50% chances for Friday. Instability limited, but can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will remain above normal with daytime highs mainly ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
During the course of today weakening low pressure over Minnesota will lift northeastward to central Ontario...while pushing its attendant warm frontal boundary east across western New York. The warm front will bring thickening/lowering clouds and a period of scattered to numerous showers from west to east through the course of the day...though the front and showers should both tend to weaken with increasing eastward extent. Expect ceilings to lower to the IFR to MVFR ranges across the higher terrain and to the lower VFR range across the lower elevations...where a stiffening southerly downslope flow will tend to keep cloud bases somewhat higher than those suggested by guidance. The strengthening southerly flow will also help generate some wind gusts of 30-35 knots at times...with these greatest across and immediately downwind of our higher terrain.

Tonight the warm front and its showers will continue to weaken while traversing the North Country...where flight conditions will range from IFR/MVFR across the higher terrain to MVFR/VFR across the lower elevations
Meanwhile further west
any showers should greatly diminish in coverage with mainly dry weather prevailing for much of the night...with flight conditions ranging from IFR/MVFR across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier to VFR elsewhere.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Low pressure will track from Minnesota to central Ontario Province today...while slowly pushing its attendant warm front east and across the Lower Lakes region. This will result a moderately brisk south-southeasterly to southerly flow continuing to overspread the Lower Great Lakes...though the increasingly offshore nature of the flow will help to direct the greatest wave action across Canadian waters
Consequently
conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria.

Following the passage of the warm front...a general southerly flow across the Lower Great Lakes will weaken some while turning more southwesterly tonight and Sunday. This will result in conditions remaining below advisory criteria
This being said
a few thunderstorms will become possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 10 mi78 min SSE 20G25 56°F 30.14
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi60 min 30.15
45142 - Port Colborne 15 mi78 min ESE 3.9G5.8 49°F 44°F1 ft30.18
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 28 mi60 min 50°F30.17
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 38 mi60 min 30.18
NREP1 38 mi108 min S 16G28 52°F


Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KDKK CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/DUNKIRK,NY 6 sm25 minSSE 15G2610 smOvercast Lt Rain 55°F46°F72%30.17
Link to 5 minute data for KDKK


Wind History from DKK
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
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Buffalo, NY,



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