Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 11:38 PM   Moonset 7:01 AM

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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 919 Pm Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
Overnight - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Partly to mostly cloudy. Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Occasional showers. Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers in the evening. Monday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely Monday night. Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
the water temperature off buffalo is 43 degrees.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 270816 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 416 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will push across areas south of Lake Ontario today and the North Country tonight...and in the process will bring our region some showers
Following its passage
late spring to summerlike warmth will then overspread our region for both Sunday and Monday...
before a passing cold front brings our next opportunity for more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of this writing...an initial cutter-type low pressure system is located over Minnesota...with its attendant warm front extending southeastward across Michigan to northeast Ohio. The warm front continues to generate a band of showers across nearby Southern Ontario
Lake Erie
and northwestern PA/western Chautauqua county...however surface obs show that these actually aren't anywhere near as impressive as these appear on radar...as most of the rain is rather light and falling out of a deck of clouds at around 10 kft...with KERI only reporting a trace out of these between 3 and 4 am.

Today a the cutter-type low over Minnesota During the course of today the surface low will continue to weaken as it lifts across Lake Superior and into central Ontario Province. Its associated warm front will also weaken as it pushes across western New York and becomes further displaced from its parent...and encounters continued resistance from upper level ridging aloft
Consequently
the numerous light to modest showers attendant to the front will tend to become weaker and more scattered as the boundary pushes across western New York...and have continued to reflect this in the forecast with a general decrease in PoPs along the boundary as it makes its way eastward. Given the present lack of any lightning upstream and the absence of any instability amongst the bulk of the guidance...have also pulled any slight chance of thunder from the forecast for today as the potential for this appears rather minuscule at best.

With respect to today's high temperatures...these will be coolest from the interior southern Tier across the Finger Lakes with the front and showers/thickest cloud cover expected to cross these areas during peak heating...resulting in highs there remaining confined to the mid 50s to lower 60s
Further east across the North Country
the later arrival of the thicker clouds and showers and downsloping will allow highs there to reach into the lower to mid 60s. The warmest overall readings are most likely to be found across far western New York...where the clouds and showers should tend to thin out at least somewhat as the warm sector starts to become established later on in the day...and where the combined effects of downsloping and a warmer airmass should help to boost readings higher than what is currently suggested by the vast majority of the guidance. While the temperature forecast across far WNY has some significant forecast bust potential (in both directions...as it could turn out notably cooler if the clouds/showers hang on longer than expected...or notably warmer if we get any sun given the warmth of the incoming airmass)...at this point still expect highs to reach the mid-upper 60s across Niagara County and the lower elevations of Erie County...and the lower 70s along the Lake Erie shoreline of Chautauqua county.

Moving on into tonight...the warm frontal boundary will continue to weaken as it crosses the North Country...with any showers along it also continuing to generally weaken and become more scattered over time. Meanwhile further west the warm sector will continue to establish itself across the remainder of the region. While much of the guidance tries to redevelop some additional showers across western New York overnight...feel that is is overdone given the apparent lack of a significant trigger for additional convection.
While a few more widely separated showers cannot be completely ruled out given the broad/weak warm advection regime that will be in place aloft...feel that these are currently not worth much more than some slight chance PoPs...and have thus continued to undercut machine numbers
Otherwise
the very mild incoming airmass and a continued decent south to south-southwesterly breeze will result in low temperatures more typical of late May or June...with overnight mins expected to range from around 50 across the North Country to near 60 along the Lake Erie shoreline.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A mid level ridge aloft will build northward into our region Sunday and Monday. The remnants of a convective wave may track along the top of the ridge on Sunday, bringing a chance of showers and possibly an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. The ridge will build further northward and bring dry weather late Sunday night into Monday. Monday afternoon there may be scattered instability showers or thunderstorms inland of the lake breeze across the Western Southern Tier.

The ridge will gradually shift to the east, which will allow a weak shortwave and cold front to approach from the west Monday night with the cold front moving across the region during Tuesday. Some pre- frontal instability, but it appears its timing will be on the early side for diurnal instability to fully develop. There likely (60-70%)
will be some showers with some embedded thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage from the Genesee River Valley eastward. With modest wind profiles and instability, these appear to be of the garden variety.

It will be warm with above normal temperatures during the period.
Highs Sunday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, then a frontal boundary will sharpen across the region on Monday. It'll be notably cooler from Buffalo to Rochester northward with highs mainly the 60s along the south shores of Lake Ontario and east of Lake Ontario.
However, the Western Southern Tier up to about Buffalo will break into the warm sector, with 80F still a good possibility near the Pennsylvania state line. Slightly cooler with the showers and frontal passage on Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The weak frontal boundary will exit to the east of the area Tuesday night, with lingering showers and storms tapering off. Then a weak mid-level ridge will maintain mostly dry weather for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Model consensus then shows a subtle trough over the Northeast, however some ensemble members show the potential for a ridge to build into the region. In general this trend supports low chance (30%) chances for showers Thursday and 40-50% chances for Friday. Instability limited, but can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will remain above normal with daytime highs mainly ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
During the course of today weakening low pressure over Minnesota will lift northeastward to central Ontario...while pushing its attendant warm frontal boundary east across western New York. The warm front will bring thickening/lowering clouds and a period of fairly numerous showers from west to east through the course of the day...though the front and showers should both tend to weaken with increasing eastward extent. Expect ceilings to lower to the IFR to MVFR ranges across the higher terrain and to the lower VFR range across the lower elevations...where a stiffening southerly downslope flow will tend to keep cloud bases somewhat higher than those suggested by guidance. The strengthening southerly flow will also help generate some wind gusts of 30-35 knots at times...with these greatest across and immediately downwind of our higher terrain.

Tonight the warm front and its showers will continue to weaken while traversing the North Country...where flight conditions will range from IFR/MVFR across the higher terrain to MVFR/VFR across the lower elevations
Meanwhile further west
any showers should greatly diminish in coverage with mainly dry weather prevailing for much of the night...with flight conditions ranging from IFR/MVFR across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier to VFR elsewhere.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Low pressure will track from Minnesota to central Ontario Province today...while slowly pushing its attendant warm front east and across the Lower Lakes region. This will result a moderately brisk south-southeasterly to southerly flow continuing to overspread the Lower Great Lakes...though the increasingly offshore nature of the flow will help to direct the greatest wave action across Canadian waters
Consequently
conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria.

Following the passage of the warm front...a general southerly flow across the Lower Great Lakes will weaken some while turning more southwesterly tonight and Sunday. This will result in conditions remaining below advisory criteria
This being said
a few thunderstorms will become possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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