Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:34 AM

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LMZ872 Expires:202404270915;;437552 Fzus63 Kmkx 270152 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 852 pm cdt Fri apr 26 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
low pressure around 29.2 inches over the central great plains will lift into minnesota tonight, with gusty southeasterly winds expected. A few gusts late tonight into Saturday morning may approach gale force, especially in the northern half of the lake as the low continues to lift into lake superior. Winds will then become light and northeasterly Saturday night into Sunday morning as the low exits and a weak cold front drapes across central portions of the lake. Sunday into Sunday night, winds will become breezy and southerly south of the front and will become breezy and easterly to northeasterly north of the front.
a few Thunderstorms are possible this evening into tonight across the southern half of the lake, lifting into the northern half Saturday morning. Additional rounds of showers and Thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Sunday. A few storms in the afternoon hours could produce locally gusty winds.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-270915- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 852 pm cdt Fri apr 26 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds to 30 kt becoming south. Rain showers likely with slight chance of Thunderstorms through early evening, then chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft. Saturday - South winds to 30 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft. Saturday night - South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Rain showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft. Sunday night - South winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Rain showers likely in the evening, then rain showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Monday - South winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft. Monday night - Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 270618 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 218 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and Thunderstorms Tonight

- Slight Risk of Severe Weather Saturday evening

- Multiple Rounds of Showers and Storms Through Mid Week

UPDATE
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

As expected the initial batch of showers weakened as it encountered the dry low level airmass in place here in MI. It looks like there's a gap in the precipitation moving in however a larger area of showers/storms was headed our way from IL. Thus later tonight we will see the precipitation on the increase and towards daybreak, the instability increases steadily so that is when the potential for storms ramps up.

Looking at the rest of the weekend, there is some indications that a potential for excessive rain could evolve. Corfidi vectors become short and a very moist airmass with low lcl's and thin/deep CAPE exists at times. Also a low level jet sets up both Saturday night and Sunday night with a low level boundary around. It does look like the models may be catching onto this risk with the 00Z HRRR now showing some swaths of over 2 inches of rain by 00z Mon here in the CWA

DISCUSSION
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

- Showers and Thunderstorms Tonight

An area of isentropic ascent in strong warm advection pattern is bringing showers and embedded thunder into northern Illinois this afternoon and this will be moving northeast through Lower Michigan tonight. The storms are expected to remain elevated overnight. By Saturday morning the steadier rain is done with just isolated showers through the day as the warm front will focus shower activity north of the forecast area.

- Slight Risk of Severe Weather Saturday evening

Convection will be limited across much of the forecast area through Saturday afternoon under shortwave upper ridging, with a capping inversion noted in model soundings, but we will have to watch the northwest zones for initiation of convection during the evening along a prefrontal trough aligned across central or northern Lake Michigan. There is 30 knots of shear present in this area along with 500 to 1000 J/kg of CAPE, so any convection that initiates could become organized enough to present a severe threat. Main threat at this point would be hail and isolated wind.

There could be an isolated tornado threat with some model guidance showing potential for a triple point low across the northwest zones during the evening.

- Warm With Multiple Rounds of Showers and Storms Through Mid Week

Additional showers and storms are likely Sunday into Monday associated with forcing from an upper-level jet streak and aided by a frontal boundary sitting across northern Michigan and a shortwave from the parent trough ejecting through the region. Convection will be favored across Central Lower for our CWA closer to the warm frontal boundary, with MUCAPE values north of 500 J/kg suggesting there will be an attendant thunder risk. SPC currently has us in general thunder which is reasonable given that the favored region instability is separated from deep later shear and the highest likelihood of showers/storms.

Widespread showers then expand into the remainder of the CWA Sunday night and continue into early Tuesday as a cold front drifts across the area. MUCAPEs suggest thunder chances continue. Rainfall by the time all is said and done Monday night looks to be from 0.3-0.4 inches in the southeast CWA to 1-1.5 inches up towards Ludington.

Dry conditions then take over later Tuesday. as a high pressure system quickly pushes through the area. Conditions then become more active Wednesday as we see a cold front driven through Lower Michigan by a northern stream shortwave followed by additional rain chances into Thursday as a surface low ejects north into the upper Ohio Valley.

Temperature wise, highs in the 70s are expected to continue into mid week. By late week, expect highs to fall back to near normal in the 60s as a thermal trough slides into the central Great Lakes.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A warm front stretches from Iowa southeastward into Northern Illinois and Southern Indiana at 06Z. The front will steadily work its way north and east through Southwest Lower Michigan today. Typical weather associated with a warm frontal passage in the spring can be expected...namely rain showers, embedded thunderstorms and lower ceilings.

Lower ceilings will press into the TAF sites towards daybreak, with MVFR conditions prevailing by 14Z-15Z. Showers will be likely in the 08Z to 14Z time frame with some occasional thunderstorm activity mixed in as well.

The MVFR conditions should try to lift out in the afternoon as we surge into the warm sector of the system. Another round of storms appears likely after 00Z, but much of this activity should remain north of the TAF sites through 06Z Sun.

Winds will veer from southeast to southwest today with the passage of the warm front. Wind gusts may eclipse 30 knots this afternoon from the southwest.

MARINE
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for later tonight through Saturday night. Southwest winds should hit 25 knots and perhaps 30 knots at times. Marine fog is possible as well with dew points in the mid to upper 50s although the winds may be able to mix out the inversion and disperse the fog to some extent.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849.

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