Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 9:08 PM Moonrise 4:27 PM   Moonset 3:23 AM

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LMZ872 Expires:202405200330;;499510 Fzus63 Kmkx 192027 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 327 pm cdt Sun may 19 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
light and variable winds will continue over the lake through the rest of the afternoon and evening as high pressure of 30.0 moves northeast. Winds will then come around to southeasterly by daybreak on Monday and should become more southerly by Monday afternoon. Breezy southerly winds will remain Monday night into Tuesday morning before winds become southeasterly ahead of a low pressure system that will deepen to 29.4 inches as it approaches the upper great lakes region. Periods of Thunderstorms are also expected over the lake Monday through Wednesday morning.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-200330- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 327 pm cdt Sun may 19 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Tonight - North winds 10 to 15 kt veering to southeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Monday night - South winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday night - South winds to 30 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft. Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Thursday - West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Friday - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 192333 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 733 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risk for severe storms Monday afternoon/evening

- Strong to Severe Storms Possible Later Tuesday into Wednesday

- Dry Weather Thursday into early Saturday

DISCUSSION
Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

- Marginal Risk for severe storms Monday afternoon/evening

A shortwave trough is minoring out as it moves across the central Great Lakes on Monday with warm advection/isentropic ascent aiding the development of scattered rain showers and storms Monday morning into afternoon. Although instability is present with CAPE spiking up to around 1000 j/kg by afternoon, deep layer shear is limited to about 20 to 25 knots. The marginal risk for severe storms lingers into the evening as the leading edge of an MCS or MCV is coming across Lake Michigan and reaching western zones by 00Z as indicated by model guidance, including the Hi Res ARW and FV3.

This line or cluster of storms is pushing east and weakening by late Monday evening as instability decreases and the severe threat should be over by midnight. The main threat with these storms appears to be isolated downbursts in bowing line segments, but a tornado threat cannot be ruled out if local wind profiles are modified by the evolution of an MCV.

- Strong to Severe Storms Possible Later Tuesday into Wednesday

By Tuesday the presence of a strong low pressure system over the north-central United States plants lower Michigan firmly in the warm sector with dewpoints well into the 60s. This allows plenty of instability to build with MUCAPE values climbing to near and north of 2000 J/kg with near to above 30 knots of shear by Tuesday afternoon. Two rounds of storms are possible Tuesday. First, some scattered storms are possible Tuesday afternoon as the low-level jet moves in and warm front lifts north. Then more widespread showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the subsequent cold front moves through the CWA

Guidance is still split on when the cold front arrives and how fast it moves through. The ECMWF solution is more aggressive and has the frontal boundary clearing the area by 18z while the GFS and NAM support a slower front. The slower the front crosses the state, the more destabilization can occur ahead of the frontal boundary Wednesday for the Southeastern CWA As the low and mid-level jets overspread the region, shear ahead of the front climbs over 40 knots Wednesday bringing potential severe weather concerns focused on the southeastern portions of the area as CAPE values remain elevated if the slower front materializes.

Overall, some uncertainty remains in the timing of any thunderstorms which affects the finer details of severe weather potential.
However, later Tuesday into Wednesday the parameter space will be favorable for the chance of strong to severe storms. This will need to be monitored and details fine-tuned over the next few days.
Regardless, Tuesday will be warm and a bit muggy with temps well into the 80s. Highs Wednesday will generally be in the 70s but if the front slows some areas may reach the 80s.

- Dry Weather Thursday into early Saturday

Predominantly zonal mid-level flow and surface ridging is expected after the front exits later Wednesday. This combined with a lack of deep moisture will support not only dry conditions but even potentially a few sunny days Thursday and Friday with highs in the 70s. The next chance of rain and increasing clouds will be Saturday as a cold frontal boundary and shortwave approach West Michigan.
Though as expected at this range, differences in timing and position exist keeping some uncertainty as to exact timing and coverage of showers.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 733 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Much of this forecast period will be quiet with little to no impact and VFR conditions. The exception to this will be a 2-4 hour period mid-morning to early afternoon when a batch of showers and storms will move through.

We only have high clouds around 25k ft agl moving in this evening from the tops of storms well to our west. These clouds will continue to move in and thicken overnight. Drier low levels will keep any rain and fog from forming.

The models have been in fairly good agreement showing a batch of left over showers and storms coming in from the west beginning around mid morning. It looks like the northern terminals will be favored, with less of a chance for the southern terminals.
Confidence is high enough for expected wording at the I-96 terminals, and VCTS at the I-94 terminals. This will also be the case for MVFR-IFR conditions.

Once these move out, most of, if not all of the rest of the forecast period will be mainly dry with some clearing. Another batch of storms will approach Monday evening, but likely just after the end of this period.

MARINE
Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Winds and waves should remain below Small Craft Advisory the next few days although locally higher winds and waves are possible in thunderstorms on Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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