Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 11:50 PM   Moonset 7:07 AM

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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 212 Am Pdt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am pdt this morning through this evening - .
Today - SW wind 5 to 10 kt - .backing to S 10 to 15 kt in the morning, then - .rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds - .shifting to the sw 4 ft at 4 seconds in the afternoon. SWell W 6 to 7 ft at 8 seconds - .subsiding to W 5 ft at 8 seconds and W 3 ft at 14 seconds in the afternoon. Showers.Tonight - S wind 20 to 25 kt - .becoming sw 10 to 20 kt in the late evening and early morning, then - .easing to 10 kt early in the morning. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 8 seconds and W 3 to 6 ft at 12 seconds. Showers.Sun - SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 6 to 8 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of showers through the day. Sun night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 7 to 8 ft at 11 seconds. Showers likely. Mon - W wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 7 ft at 11 seconds. Rain likely. Mon night - W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 7 to 8 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of rain. Tue - W wind 10 kt - .veering to N after midnight. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds - .shifting to the sw 2 ft at 4 seconds after midnight. SWell nw 9 ft at 10 seconds. Wed - NE wind 5 kt - .backing to N 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 5 to 6 ft at 9 seconds.

PZZ300 212 Am Pdt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - A weak front will move into the waters this morning with moderate south winds. The front will move inland this afternoon with winds shifting to the west and diminishing. However, seas will remain elevated enough for small craft conditions to continue until late this evening. Weak high pressure builds southwest of the waters Sunday, then another front will move into the waters Monday.

FXUS66 KMFR 270544 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1043 PM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Updated AVIATION discussion

DISCUSSION

Radar is starting to clear up this evening as we lose solar heating. In fact, KMAX just switched into VCP 35(clear air mode)
a few minutes ago. Models show 500 mb heights building later tonight and that should help clear things out a bit tonight.
Pockets of frost are also possible, although valley temperatures appear to stay in the upper 30's west of the Cascades instead of lower 30's. Dewpoints are also pretty warm and in the lower 40's, so it's hard seeing temperatures really crashing if we clear out. In fact, there should be potential for pockets of fog, especially in the Umpqua Basin later tonight.

-Smith

AVIATION
27/06Z TAFs...The night is starting with generally VFR levels across northern California and southern Oregon. Some ceilings along the Oregon coast are occasionally down to MVFR levels, and may fluctuate overnight. There's a 5-10% chance of visibilities dropping to MVFR levels in the Umpqua Valley early Saturday morning if some patchy fog develops, but the confidence in that is not high enough to enter into the TAFs.

A weak front will bring more showers to the area late Saturday morning, with the Oregon coast and the Cascades having the best chances for rain through the TAF period. Inland areas west of the Cascades should see periodic showers, while little activity beyond some gusty winds is expected east of the Cascades. -TAD

MARINE
Updated 800 PM Friday, April 26, 2024...West swell is continuing to build steep seas in all waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in place until 2 AM on Saturday morning to communicate these continuing conditions.

Seas look to remain generally calm through the weekend and into next week. An approaching front may bring wind-built steep seas to waters north of Gold Beach through Saturday afternoon and evening with calm seas returning before Sunday. Current forecast wave heights are just barely at Small Craft levels, and confidence in the affected area is low. Additional guidance will help to determine if another brief period of steep seas is expected.

Active weather continues next week, although marine impacts look minimal. Approaching systems will bring precipitation chances (40- 60%) on Monday and across the latter half of the week. Probabilistic guidance suggests a very small (10-20%) chance of waves exceeding 12 feet on Tuesday morning, but chances for larger waves are otherwise nonexistent next week. This indicates that conditions beyond steep seas are exceptionally unlikely through next Friday. -TAD

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 446 PM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024/

SHORT TERM
Tonight 4/26 through Saturday night 4/27
Radar imagery is showing numerous showers across southern Oregon and northern California. These showers will continue this afternoon and taper off over the evening. These showers are being caused by a frontal boundary that moved through the area earlier this morning. A couple of thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon, mainly along and east of the Cascades. The HRRR didn't show much that impressed me regarding showers, but a lightning strike was already recorded in Lassen County, California. Some of these showers may produce some moderate to heavy precipitation.

As showers taper off tonight, some clearing may occur; but skies will remain mostly cloudy which will keep temperatures moderated and will preclude any frost or freeze concerns.

Another front will swing by southern Oregon and northern California tomorrow. This system may bring additional light precipitation to areas mainly along and west of the Cascades.
Snow levels will be around 5000 feet, and 1-2 inches of snow will be possible in the Cascades. Impactful weather, however, is generally not expected

LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday, April 28 - May 3, 2024...Zonal flow (west to east) across the Pacific Sunday into Tuesday will maintain a storm track mostly to our north. At times, disturbances will swing through, resulting in an increase in shower chances, but mainly across NW sections of the CWA On Sunday, onshore flow will contribute to a 30-60% chance of showers north and west of the Umpqua Divide with PoPs diminishing quickly south and east of there. It looks like a mainly dry, at least partly sunny day elsewhere (including here in the Rogue Valley)
with gusty breezes (25-35 mph) developing in the afternoon. The next upper air disturbance will move through Sunday night into Monday. Once again, the main forcing for precipitation will be to our north, but there's a high probability of showers (50-70%)
along the coast and over to the Cascades. Again, precip chances drop off quickly to the south and east of the mountains. We can't rule out a shower or two around the Rogue Valley/Medford area during that time period, but most of the time will be rain free.
Snow levels Sunday night could dip to around 3500 feet or so, but any light snow accumulations (1-3") should be confined to the Cascade mountains from around Crater Lake northward. This system exits to the east Monday evening, followed by another upper disturbance that will swing through northern Oregon on Tuesday.
For a third time, we'll be on the southern fringes of this system, so PoPs remain highest across the north and west, lowest across the south and east. Overall, temperatures during this period will be near to below normal. Widespread frost/freezing conditions west of the Cascades appear unlikely at the moment, but a colder night or two is possible, especially if skies clear and remain clear all night. Best chance right now for frost is Monday night/Tue morning with the usual suspects (Illinois/Applegate Valley/Grants Pass areas) having the highest probability (30-60%).

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty regarding mid-late next week. Recent 12z deterministic guidance wants to dry things out across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with a return of higher heights by Thu/Fri. Some multi-model members have also gone in this direction, which would potentially bring a substantial warm up. This is being reflected in recent blended guidance as well with some lowering of PoPs in the Wed-Fri time frame. However, there are still several members that fall into a cluster of similar solutions (~20%)
that bring another upper trough into the area maintaining a cooler, wetter regime. At this point, confidence in any of these solutions is low, so we prefer to keep the official forecast closer to the NBM, which results in modest PoPs (generally 20-40%) area wide during the period. Temperatures should trend higher as well, but we haven't gone quite as high as the 12z models would show just yet.
-Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Charleston
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Sat -- 02:11 AM PDT     7.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:07 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:20 AM PDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:06 PM PDT     5.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:56 PM PDT     3.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston, Oregon, Tide feet

Entrance
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Sat -- 02:14 AM PDT     6.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:05 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:22 AM PDT     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:20 PM PDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:50 PM PDT     3.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

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Medford, OR,