Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:20 AM

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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 415 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon - .
Today - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet. Tonight - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet. Sunday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming east 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and afternoon. Sunday night - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Light showers likely in the evening, then showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 271205 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 805 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms develop this morning, then some additional activity is possible tonight, mainly for the Tri-Cities area.

- Southwest winds gust to 35 mph this afternoon.

- Additional showers and storms are possible Sunday and Monday with above normal temperatures before a cold front arrives on Tuesday.

AVIATION

Predominately VFR conditions this morning as rain showers move across southeast Michigan. There have been some isolated thunderstorms observed this morning bringing brief MVFR VSBYs. Any chances to impact the terminals will be diminishing by 12Z and beyond, so will leave mention out of this TAF forecast. The warm front will continue to lift through southeast Michigan this morning helping bring an end to the shower activity by around 14/15Z. There may be a relatively short window for MVFR ceilings to exist early this afternoon in the warm sector before drier air aloft and daytime mixing will help lift ceilings quickly back to VFR for the remainder of the day. Expect dry conditions to exist for the afternoon and evening. Daytime mixing will support south to southwest wind gusts approaching 30 knots during the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances return late tonight into Sunday morning.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Convection will exit within the next hour or two of this TAF cycle. Expecting mainly dry conditions by late morning and through the evening. Greater thunderstorm potential is currently favored for north of the D21 airspace across KMBS late tonight. Confidence is too low at this time to add thunder in TAFs for the early tomorrow morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in thunderstorms tonight into Sunday morning.

* Moderate to high in ceilings aob 5000 feet this morning and afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

DISCUSSION...

Surface low pressure (993 mb) affecting morning shower development across Southeast Michigan accelerates northeastward from central Minnesota to The Keweenaw Peninsula today as the governing wave aloft opens up, interacting with a northern stream shortwave over Ontario. This adjustment induces further constriction of the surface pressure gradient as a 1034 mb surface ridge builds south across the Mid-Atlantic. Local flow veers from SE to SW today with prevailing speeds in excess of 15 knots. Low-level wind profiles reveal 50+ knot flow near the 5 kft AGL level, but given the warm advection regime, mixing depths remain quite shallow for most of the diurnal period. Still, with 25+ knot winds down to 500 ft AGL, gusts will generally range between 25 and 35 mph by late morning.

Regarding precipitation processes, the initial band of showers tied to isentropic ascent have moved off to the northeast while scattered activity begins to develop with inbound frontogenesis. These showers also benefit from substantial dynamic support as a region of divergence moves in aloft while the main LLJ axis situates over southern Lower Michigan. Potential exists for updraft overachievement with UVVs capable of some lightning generation in spite of limited instability. Opted to maintain current Slight/Chance Thunder wording with revised PoPs. Given the barrage of ThetaE convergence and CVA, CAM depiction varies in specifics, but most of the morning convective activity should conclude by 16Z while some lingering showers persist near the shoreline communities until 18Z. Confidence continues to rise in a mainly dry afternoon forecast as the western extend of the Atlantic anticyclone impinges on the region. This also promotes some thinning of the cloud deck and a late day boost to temperatures. Fully entrenched within the warm sector marked by 850 mb temps of 12C to 13C, should easily break into the mid (if not upper) 70s this afternoon, roughly 15F above normal.

The anomalous warmth paired with Gulf-augmented dewpoints approaching 60F this evening prime Lower Michigan for modest conditional instability. Main concern is the presence of a capping inversion around 6 kft that is represented in the NAMnest and GFS while the feature is less prevalent via the ARW and RAP.
Additionally, RH cross-sections highlight the impact of the veered mid-level flow which effectively dries out the column above the inversion. Lift mechanism(s) might be non-existent during this timeframe as the system's cold front remains stalled over Western Michigan. The boundary won't release until later in the evening as an upstream wave ejects out of the synoptic subtropical jet from the Desert Southwest. Given this lagged frontal progression, perhaps as late as midnight, the main threat for both broader coverage of thunderstorms and any strong to severe activity is largely reserved for the Tri-Cities area where MUCAPEs peak with 35-40 knots of EBS.
SPC continues to advertise a Marginal Risk for severe weather west of a line from Adrian to Bad Axe which should stay quite isolated in nature should storms materialize.

The front should be in the process of washing out by Sunday morning and taking position as a bisecting stationary boundary. Not much in the way of synoptic adjustments as the secondary shortwave takes a slightly more westerly trajectory through the Upper Midwest than today's. Persistent ThetaE advection and additional warming capitalize on the surface convergence axis for addition showers/storms while the better forcing aloft holds off to the northwest. Very warm conditions expected for areas south of the front with highs breaking 80F across the southern four counties.
Additional rounds of showers and/or storms possible Sunday night.

Nuisance forecast extends into Monday with additional periods of convective activity as the warm sector resides over the region, but the VortMax from the secondary wave remains well off to the west.
Persistent moisture transport and confluent low-level flow maintain unstable conditions with opportunities for both elevated and surface based convection. A cold front arrives Monday night with increasingly uniform westerly flow through the column. A cooler and drier forecast stays through Wednesday morning, dependent on the status of an extensive cold front draped from Manitoba to Texas should wash out over the Great Lakes. Active pattern returns through the latter half of the week with at least two speed maxes work through the northern tier of the Lower 48 with revitalized warm advection.

MARINE...

Strong low pressure moves across Lake Superior on today. Wind veer southerly today with gusts touching gale force this morning before gradually weakening through the day as much warmer air moves into the region to stabilize flow over the cold lake water. The warm air also fuels thunderstorm potential through tonight, and possibly even into Sunday as the associated cold front stalls over the region. The front awaits yet another low pressure system moving in from the Plains Sunday into Monday.

CLIMATE...

Here are the record high temperatures for April 28th:

April 28th: Detroit 84 (set in 1986)
Flint 85 (set in 1990)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 85 (set in 1990)

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421-422- 441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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