Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:37 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

SLZ024 Expires:202404270915;;436661 Fzus61 Kbuf 270121 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 921 pm edt Fri apr 26 2024
slz022-024-270915- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 921 pm edt Fri apr 26 2024
Overnight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of rain showers late. Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Sunday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Sunday night - Northwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers in the evening. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Showers likely Monday night. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers.Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers Wednesday night.

SLZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBTV 270800 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 400 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Today will be dry across North Country, although clouds and southerly winds will be on the increase. Scattered to numerous rain showers develop overnight tonight into Sunday. Periods of shower activity with intervals of dry weather are expected for the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 351 AM EDT Saturday...1032 mb surface high sags south of Long Island as a warm front associated with a strong surface low pressure across Iowa approaches our region from the southwest. We are starting to see reflectivity returns on the regional radar mosaic across Lake Erie into the Ohio/Pennsylvania border. That is associated with an area of 1 to 1.2 inch PWATs. As for our area, we remain dry with PWAT values of 0.2 inch. Indeed, we will start the day with mostly clear skies but mid to high clouds will be moving into North Country from west to east. Overall, rain should hold off till around sunset so while it is not going to be a blue bird day like the past couple of days, it will be quite pleasant for outdoor activities. It will also be quite breezy, as south winds increase during the day today, with the strongest winds expected across the St Lawrence valley, southern Adirondacks and the Champlain valley, where sustained winds will be around 10 to 15 mph and gusts 20 to 25 mph. Elsewhere in the sheltered areas across the northern Adirondacks and east of the Green Mountains, stronger winds should kick in by the afternoon hours.

Deamplifying shortwave trough embedded within a larger area of upper ridging crosses our CWA overnight tonight, pushing a warm front through and advecting a considerably more moist air mass than we have gotten used to in recent days. Both the GFS and NAM are in good agreement with a north-south oriented plume of 1 inch PWATs advecting eastward during the evening into overnight hours, replacing the 0.3 inch PWATs out ahead of it. To put in perspective how dramatic that is, we go from the 10th percentile to the 90th percentile of SPC PWAT sounding climatology for the Albany, NY upper air site. Why such a dramatic change in air mass? Zooming out to the CONUS view, the plume of anomalous PWATs along with a strong low level jet (LLJ) both have origins in the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level ridge will be situated across the southern Appalachia, so the nose of the LLJ would be pointed somewhere across New England, helping to enhance rainfall rates. The HRRR is by far the most bullish in rainfall amounts, with locally over 1 inch possible. Not all the CAMs are that bullish, however, so it is far from certain we get widespread soaking rain. At this time, we have raised rainfall amounts into the 0.25 to 0.5 inches range for overnight Saturday into Sunday. We should get more clarity with the 12z HRRR guidance and if further upward adjustment to rainfall amounts is necessary. In addition, the exact orientation of the H5 ridge could determine if the heavy rain falls over Vermont or New Hampshire. Either way, there are no hydrologic or flooding concerns.

A 1002 mb surface low pressure tracks northeast from the southern tip of Hudson Bay to Nunavut Sunday morning. As it does so, it will be weakening but has just enough dynamics to drag a weak cold front across the northern Adirondacks and northern Vermont. Accordingly, these areas have the best chance for most widespread coverage of convective showers and higher rainfall amounts. Forecast soundings indicate some steep mid-level lapse rates and elevated instability overnight Saturday, so a few nighttime rumbles of thunder are not out of the question particularly across northern NY. After a brief lull It is worth noting that dew points on Sunday will rise into the 50s to even near 60, especially across the St Lawrence Valley and west of the Adirondacks in northern NY. As for Vermont, we start out Sunday with dew points in the 40s but 50s dew points will also overspread the state by mid day into the afternoon hours. This would result in a few hundred joules of CAPE, so a few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question mainly across our northern zones. With a bit of sunshine, temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 60s to low 70s. That being said, areas across northern Vermont that has the most widespread rain coverage could see cooler daytime temperature readings. However, we are also in late April so the high sun angle will allow temperatures to warm rather efficiently. As for outdoor activities on Sunday, while there would likely be rain drops to dodge, it would not be exactly a washout either. If anything, the rainfall would be beneficial in this pre green-up environment and help keep the fire danger at bay. For warm weather and summer lovers, the uptick in humidity and possible rumbles of thunder would serve as a reminder that summer is not too far away. Overall temperatures will be on the slightly warmer than normal with highs on Sunday in the mid 60s to low 70s, except cooler across the Adirondacks and northeast Vermont.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 351 AM EDT Saturday...An amplified ridge will remain overhead across Vermont and northern New York Sunday night into Tuesday. A surface trough will shift south Sunday night, and dry north flow should scatter out precipitation. However, cannot entirely say we'll be precipitation- free due to remnant convection from storms out west arc over the ridge axis and possibly into our area. With clouds and little cold air flowing south, Sunday night will remain in the 40s.
Monday itself looks fairly nice. Dry air will hold until late in the evening, when another surge of moisture will lift northeast late in the day.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 351 AM EDT Saturday...Monday night into Tuesday, the strong upper ridge will finally start to give way. A plume of moisture connected to the Gulf of Mexico will slide east. There are some differences on where a weak surface low tracks. If it tracks overhead, then we'll see soaking rain much of the Tuesday, but if remains south, we could see precipitation arrive mid-morning and afternoon and with a south to north gradient of QPF. Our pattern does a bit of rinse and repeat as another strong ridge will develop on Wednesday that will only gradually slide east such that we will likely see drier conditions Wednesday followed by increasing rain chances into the latter half of the week. Temperatures throughout the extended will be about 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions will persist through most of the TAF period at all terminals. Ceilings lower to MVFR after 00z Sunday from west to east along with increasing chance for light rain showers. No visibility reductions below 6 SM are expected through 06z Sunday. Winds will remain relatively light tonight before increasing a bit during the day tomorrow.
Stronger terrain- driven winds gusting 15-20 kts are possible at KMSS and KRUT. Winds also shift to the south and southwest at 5-10 kt after 12z Sunday with localized 15-20 kt gusts possible.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

CLIMATE
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 29: KBTV: 55/2013 KPBG: 57/1974

April 30: KPBG: 54/2004

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Troy
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:33 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:16 AM EDT     5.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:22 PM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:23 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:08 AM EDT     5.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:12 PM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Burlington, VT,