Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:37 AM

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FXUS63 KUNR 271056 AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 456 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers/storms possible this morning and afternoon, more widespread precipitation moves in this evening through Sunday afternoon.

- More seasonable temperatures move in early next week, along with near daily chances for showers/storms

DISCUSSION
(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 134 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show first shortwave over eastern SD into MN, while second wave sits over the four corners region. At the surface, low pressure sits over the SD/MN border, with another low over southwestern WY. Low clouds cover much of the western SD plains. Temperatures currently sit in the 40s across the forecast area this morning.

Out ahead of the next wave, CAMs hint at isolated showers possible later this morning and afternoon across the western South Dakota plains, while bulk of expected precipitation moves in this evening into Sunday as the upper trough swings into NE eventually eastern SD. Ensembles continue to prog the wave a bit more to the east, highlighting a sharp cutoff on QPF potential, with northwestern SD remaining mostly dry. The better forcing continues to be east and south of our forecast area, however will be enough lift to see widespread precipitation. Areas east and south of Rapid City may see amounts 0.25-0.75 inches of rainfall.
Precipitation tapers off from west to east Sunday afternoon.

Behind this weekend system, a more active near-zonal flow sets up over the region, bringing chances for daily showers/storms. Weak disturbance is progged to track north of the forecast Monday evening into Tuesday. Chances for showers and storms will be possible mainly over the Black Hills and northwestern SD. Weak instability will keep severe chances low through mid-week.
Deterministic models become more divergent on the overall pattern later in the week, however still point to potential for active weather in the region.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued At 453 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR CIGS over western SD will persist today, becoming IFR tonight as upslope flow lowers CIGS and patchy fog develops. Isolated showers are possible today, but widespread rain will develop east of the Black Hills tonight with isolated thunderstorms over south-central SD. Over northeastern WY, expect a period of MVFR CIGS early this morning, improvement this afternoon, and then redevelopment tonight.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
WY...None.

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Rapid City, SD,