Sunrise 5:19 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 5:41 PM   Moonset 3:45 AM

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FXUS63 KUNR 201907 AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 107 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers/isolated thunderstorms continue through Tuesday.

- Potential for light snow accumulations for higher elevations of the Black Hills tonight.

- Active pattern continues through the Memorial Day holiday weekend.

DISCUSSION
(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024

Water vapor shows upper trof over the northwestern CONUS with lead short wave ejecting into the Northern Plains. At the surface, broad high covers the Northern Plains with early afternoon temps in the 40s/50s under mostly cloudy skies. Showers are shifting north/east across our southern zones, mainly south of I-90 at this time.

Showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two will continue to shift north/east through the region this afternoon and tonight, with all but possibly far northwest SD receiving beneficial rain.
Precipitation will continue through Tuesday across much of the area as main upper trof shifts into the Northern Plains. Fairly high probability that areas near and south of I-90 will receive near or a little more than 0.50 inches, with substantially less than that further north. Thermal profiles do suggest some accumulating snow at higher elevations, but amounts will be light.
Temperatures will remain below average through Tuesday.

Upper trof departs Tuesday night, with drier conditions expected Wednesday and Wednesday night as short wave ridge builds in. Highs will be in the 60s/70s with small chances for diurnal showers/storms mainly around the Black Hills.

Next upper trof crosses the Northern Rockies on Thursday, with increasing chances for precip across our area in the afternoon/evening. Slightly drier for Friday/Saturday before next trof moves in Sunday. Temperatures late week into the weekend should be close to seasonal averages.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1135 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

Showers will increase in coverage through afternoon. Chances for precip will be highest south of Interstate 90. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected in showers and more widespread cigs tonight...especially across northeast Wyoming, the Black Hills, and southwest South Dakota.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
WY...None.

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