Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:05 AM

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FXUS63 KBIS 270902 AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 402 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of light rain will diminish through the morning hours across central North Dakota and the James River Valley, with dry conditions forecast this afternoon and evening.

- Next storm system will then bring another round of rain showers to the Northern Plains Sunday and Sunday night, favoring southwest, central, and eastern parts of western and central North Dakota (ranging from a 90 percent chance of rain across the southern James River Valley to a 20 percent chance of rain from Bowman to Stanley to Sherwood). Mainly dry across far western North Dakota.

- An active weather pattern will remain over the region through next week, with daily chances for precipitation. Temperatures will trend to slightly below normal through the work week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Currently, mid/upper level low continues to lift northeast across the Northern Plains, currently centered over western Minnesota. Associated TROWAL wrapping around the low's west side continues to generate a band of wrap around showers from the Devils Lake Basin south/southwest through south central North Dakota, with scattered showers to the east of this band.
Patchy to areas of fog once again developing southwest, with low clouds expanding to the west.

As the low continues northeast, associated forcing will diminish across central North Dakota, resulting in showers ending west to east now through mid-morning Saturday, with dry conditions this afternoon. Will also see clouds decreasing west and north central, lingering south central and especially across the James River Valley into the afternoon. Afternoon highs will thus be warmest west and north central (mid 50s to near 60) and cooler southeast (around 50).

Closed low now over the Desert Southwest will bring our next round of precipitation Sunday/Sunday night, as it develops into the Southern/Central Rockies today, then ejects northeast into the Central Plains Sunday and the eastern Dakotas/Upper Midwest Sunday night/Monday. This path is similar to our current system, with perhaps a slightly more easterly track. This puts the best chance (60-90%) for showers over my south central and east, with chances decreasing to the west and north, where western ND looks to see little if any precipitation. Via the latest NBM run, the best chance for another quarter inch or more of rain will be across the James River Valley, with amounts decreasing to the west and north. May still see some of these higher QPF amounts farther west depending on the eventual track of the low.

After precipitation moves off to our east Monday morning, a S/WV mid level ridge will move into the region, providing a brief period of clearing and dry weather for Monday afternoon, along with temperatures rebounding into the upper 60s west to mid 50s east.

A very active weather pattern will then be in place for the remainder of the work week, as multiple waves move across the Northern Plains within a broad quasi-stationary trough pattern over the northwest and north central CONUS. Daily chances for precipitation are forecast, along with temperatures trending cooler to below normal mid to late week (highs mainly in the 50s).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue over central and eastern North Dakota (James River Valley) including the KMOT, KBIS, and KJMS terminals through tonight. KDIK also looks to see some low ceilings overnight, but more uncertain how long that will last. There will be a gradual improvement from west to east Saturday morning at most terminals, with KJMS seeing possible MVFR cigs persisting through the day. VFR conditions will continue to prevail over northwest North Dakota (KXWA).

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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