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FXUS65 KTFX 271023 AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 423 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS

Areas of rain and mountain snow will continue across the area through Saturday as a slow moving weather system moves through.
Warmer and drier air arrives for Sunday, but the active weather pattern will resume as we head into the start of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

-- Cooler temperatures this weekend with rain at lower elevations and snow in the mountains.

-- Unsettled weather will continue through next week with periods of rain and mountain snow.

Short Term (Today through Sunday):

Rain at lower elevations and mountain snow will continue through tonight as an upper level trough continues to make its way across the western CONUS. When looking at snow totals, not much changed compared to the previous forecast so all the current headlines have remained the same.

By Sunday, most of the precipitation will be confined to the mountains with some showers possible at lower elevations south of a line from Helena to Lewistown. Snow accumulations are expected to remain light with only the highest elevations, well above pass level, potentially seeing higher amounts.

Long Term (Monday through next Friday):

A parade of weather systems are going to march across the region through the start of the week with snow in the mountains and rain/snow mix at lower elevations. The details of when rain will transition to snow, particularly along the plains, remains a bit uncertain at this time. There are stronger signals with this update that lower elevation locations in central Montana and closer to the Rocky Mountain front may see some accumulating snow.
However, there is still a lot of variance in the models regarding exact snow totals and given how warm the ground has been, the risk for accumulating snow remains generally low at this time.
Locations along the hi-line towards Havre and Chinook have a higher chance of only seeing rain with this event as temperatures are expected to be warmer heading east.

The second half of the week will be a little warmer as a ridge tries to build over the intermountain west. Extended model guidance maintains a lot of disagreement on what happens to the ridge. The first possible scenario is a weaker ridge that gets pushed out sooner as the trough moves onshore from the west which will shorten the dry period and bring more unsettled weather to Montana. The second possible scenario involves some ensemble members holding on to the ridge a little longer which will allow for a couple days of warmer and drier conditions before the trough moves in during the weekend. At this point in time there is too much uncertainty to pin down which scenario will play out but that will be the next round to watch heading into next weekend.

-thor



AVIATION
1140 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 (27/06Z TAF Period)

Moisture continues to be drawn north and northwestward into the region with scattered light showers across southwest MT as well as portions of central and north-central MT through Saturday morning.
Showers will become more numerous across western portions of north- central and central MT and most of southwest MT through the day on Saturday with precipitation slowly shifting east of the area Saturday night. VFR conditions prevail through Saturday morning at most terminals with some brief MVFR conditions with the passage of showers. MVFR conditions become more widespread with increasing precipitation coverage Saturday afternoon with some IFR conditions possible in more intense showers. Areas of mountain top obscuration will transition to more widespread terrain obscuration through the day Saturday as cloud bases lower. Surface winds become more easterly across the plains on Saturday with breezy east winds at KHVR and KLWT. Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 56 38 60 39 / 60 70 10 10 CTB 53 36 57 36 / 60 50 0 0 HLN 53 38 62 38 / 80 60 10 10 BZN 56 36 59 35 / 70 80 50 30 WYS 50 32 49 27 / 90 80 70 30 DLN 50 34 56 35 / 90 50 20 20 HVR 64 42 66 38 / 20 50 10 0 LWT 58 38 58 36 / 30 40 30 20

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Northwest Beaverhead County.

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