Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 6:29 AM

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LSZ142 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0034.000000t0000z-231005t2330z/ 609 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn - .
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4751 8988 4712 9014 4710 9027 4709 9066 4710 9066 4723 9053 4771 9048 4781 9016 4786 8993 time - .mot - .loc 2308z 252deg 36kt 4766 9039 4735 9042 4726 9045 4713 9056

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 270915 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 415 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this morning before tapering off this afternoon.

- Brief lull in the action before another system enters from the south bring showers and a few thunderstorms. Rain chances will increase through Sunday morning with widespread rainfall across the region expected by the early evening hours. Second system departs Monday evening.

- Active weather continue with another system passing west to east on Tuesday once again brining rain and some thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Current conditions/Today:

Scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms continue to impact the Northland this morning as a low pressure moves across southern MN. We have seen a few lightning flashes overnight as we still have a small bubble of MUCAPE over the region. We will maintain this instability through the mid morning hours. Thereafter, embedded thunderstorm chances quickly taper off across the region. However, as the Low pressure moves into NW WI we could see some isolated storms in the afternoon hours. CAMs are not overly excited about the potential for stronger storms with an overall consensus of rain tapering off in the afternoon.

Second System Sunday/Monday:

There will be a brief lull in the action as another Colorado Low gears up to make a run at the Great Lakes region later tonight.
Following a somewhat similar track as the previous low, we expect precipitation to begin filtering in from the south Sunday morning. Widespread rain showers will envelop the Northland by the early evening hours. Thunderstorm chances increase a bit Sunday night as the low moves into western WI. But similar to the last system the amount of available instability to tap into is very limited. Severe weather is not expected. Additionally, as the low approaches the increased pressure gradient will lead to some breezy east to northeast winds Sunday night through Monday morning. Wind speeds have decreased a bit with this forecast package but areas along the shore line (especially the North Shore) could see some wind gusts upwards of 45 mph.

Lake Shore Flooding Potential Sunday/Monday:

One other consideration may be Lake Shore flooding for the Twin Ports. Lake levels are currently at 602ft which is not quite the height we typically associate with lake flooding but not entirely out of the question. The prolonged northeasterly gales are expected to cause wave height of 11-16 ft with occasional 20 ft. If gales can maintain there speeds for over 24 hrs we could see the levels rise to the point of needing a Lake Flood Advisory.

Third System Tuesday:

The system begins to occlude on Monday as rain chances begin to diminish in the evening. However, the region is not quite done with the active pattern. An upper level low moving along the International Border will draw another system out of the Northern Plains for Tuesday afternoon and evening. As the cold front pushes across the region expect some rain and some isolated thunderstorms once again.

Extended Forecast:

At the midweek point we see some significant divergence in model guidance lower confidence. For now, we are carrying intermittent PoPs of 20-40% as the general set up is a slow moving upper level low across Ontario with a baroclinic zone over the region. The main ingredient in question is if we have enough moisture to trigger any precipitation as some on the deterministic guidance show some pretty decent dry air through period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Mixed bag of flight conditions across the Northland tonight as a Colorado Low moves northeast out of southern MN. Scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible. CAMs suggest the best chance for some isolated storms will be in the early periods of the forecast and into the morning hours. Winds will continually be shifting as the Low is expected to pass through NW WI. Rain is expected to taper off this afternoon and evening before another system enters for Sunday.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A Colorado Low moving across southern MN and towards the Great Lakes region today is bringing widespread rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. This activity will decrease this afternoon. Winds are currently breezy but will weaken and back to out of the northwest this afternoon. However, another system right on its heels will increase winds once again tonight.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday as well as gales.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for LSZ121-140>143-146>148-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>147-150.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for LSZ144-145.

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