Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Guntersville, AL
June 2, 2024 10:32 PM CDT (03:32 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:32 AM Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 2:43 AM Moonset 3:56 PM |
Area Discussion for - Huntsville, AL
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FXUS64 KHUN 030222 AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 922 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms that impacted parts of the Tennessee Valley earlier, have for the most part dissipated with a loss of daytime heating and strong boundary interaction. But some convection continue south of this area, near the I-20 corridor and mainly east of I-65. Did see some weak echoes that were over the Quad Cities area of NW Alabama - which have faded. Otherwise under mostly clear skies, 9 PM temperatures have cooled into the 70s with light winds.
A look at MRMS data indicated a majority of the area received measurable rainfall today, with amounts near 2" over parts of western Cullman county and a few spotty amounts nearing an inch here and there. Given at the moment mostly clear skies, light winds, a wet ground, and the start of night-time, which are favorable preconditions for fog to develop. A few spots like Scottsboro or Vinemont were showing reduced ceilings (low cloud bases) and/or reduced visibilities. With a good 9 hours before daybreak Monday, there will be an opportunity for fog to become an issue later tonight into early Mon, especially in the area's more fog prone spots. Am not confident on issuing a dense fog advisory at this time, as model output was showing fog, but not dense fog.
Mid and high clouds ejected from more widespread convection over AR-LA-TX will overspread the area in the overnight. A high altitude cloud canopy would have little impact on whether fog will form or not, but a mid level deck could. The on-going forecast otherwise is looking good with no big changes needed at this time.
SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Early morning fog will quickly dissipate and the end result will be a mostly sunny and rain-free June day on Monday as a subtle ridge axis noses into the area. It will still feel quite humid, however, and with highs in the mid to upper 80s and peak heat indices in the lower 90s. The tranquil weather will be short-lived as another shortwave will ripple from the Mid South into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians on Tuesday, with medium chances for showers and storms (40-60%) returning by the afternoon hours. It's possible a couple strong storms may develop during the peak heating afternoon/early evening window with gusty winds and heavy downpours being the main threats. This initial activity will wane overnight, but cloud cover will begin to creep back ahead of the next feature set to bring some additional chances for convection on Wednesday. More on this in the section below.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Heading into mid week, a deepening upper level low riding along the U.S. and Canadian border just NW of the Great Lakes will run into a blocking pattern. The associated sfc low will have a cold front that extends down the MS Valley. A shortwave will swing through before the cold front does, providing medium chances (40-60%) Wednesday morning, and coverage increases to high chances (60-70%) in the afternoon ahead of the front. Showers and storms will linger into Thursday, lesser in coverage though, until the front itself passes through. Forecast soundings show pockets of instability but weak shear with PWAT forecasts up to 1.8-1.9" (75th percentile or higher).
At this time, hazards are heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Will note that WPC has the TN Valley in a Marginal ERO again on Wednesday, so will watch for flooding potential.
Behind the front, cooler and drier air will filter in, decreasing cloud cover and dewpoints. Temps will only be a tad cooler, with highs in the low/mid 80s and lows in the lower 60s at night both Friday and Saturday.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
VFR conditions were present at the terminals at issuance. A few showers were ongoing across northern Alabama and portions of southern middle Tennessee, but anticipating much of the activity to cease for the terminals around 0Z. Not expecting much in the way of rain through Monday afternoon; although a stray shower or two cannot be ruled out. The main concern for the overnight period is patchy fog development. At this point, MVFR VIS is forecast tonight at both MSL and HSV. Some instances of patchy, dense fog are possible; however, confidence was too low to include in the TAFs at this time. We will monitor observations and trends and reassess with the next update. Any fog is expected to lift and dissipate through mid-morning on Monday. As for winds, they are forecast to be light and variable overnight and then increase slightly to around 5 knots and be from the southwest by Monday afternoon.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 922 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms that impacted parts of the Tennessee Valley earlier, have for the most part dissipated with a loss of daytime heating and strong boundary interaction. But some convection continue south of this area, near the I-20 corridor and mainly east of I-65. Did see some weak echoes that were over the Quad Cities area of NW Alabama - which have faded. Otherwise under mostly clear skies, 9 PM temperatures have cooled into the 70s with light winds.
A look at MRMS data indicated a majority of the area received measurable rainfall today, with amounts near 2" over parts of western Cullman county and a few spotty amounts nearing an inch here and there. Given at the moment mostly clear skies, light winds, a wet ground, and the start of night-time, which are favorable preconditions for fog to develop. A few spots like Scottsboro or Vinemont were showing reduced ceilings (low cloud bases) and/or reduced visibilities. With a good 9 hours before daybreak Monday, there will be an opportunity for fog to become an issue later tonight into early Mon, especially in the area's more fog prone spots. Am not confident on issuing a dense fog advisory at this time, as model output was showing fog, but not dense fog.
Mid and high clouds ejected from more widespread convection over AR-LA-TX will overspread the area in the overnight. A high altitude cloud canopy would have little impact on whether fog will form or not, but a mid level deck could. The on-going forecast otherwise is looking good with no big changes needed at this time.
SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Early morning fog will quickly dissipate and the end result will be a mostly sunny and rain-free June day on Monday as a subtle ridge axis noses into the area. It will still feel quite humid, however, and with highs in the mid to upper 80s and peak heat indices in the lower 90s. The tranquil weather will be short-lived as another shortwave will ripple from the Mid South into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians on Tuesday, with medium chances for showers and storms (40-60%) returning by the afternoon hours. It's possible a couple strong storms may develop during the peak heating afternoon/early evening window with gusty winds and heavy downpours being the main threats. This initial activity will wane overnight, but cloud cover will begin to creep back ahead of the next feature set to bring some additional chances for convection on Wednesday. More on this in the section below.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Heading into mid week, a deepening upper level low riding along the U.S. and Canadian border just NW of the Great Lakes will run into a blocking pattern. The associated sfc low will have a cold front that extends down the MS Valley. A shortwave will swing through before the cold front does, providing medium chances (40-60%) Wednesday morning, and coverage increases to high chances (60-70%) in the afternoon ahead of the front. Showers and storms will linger into Thursday, lesser in coverage though, until the front itself passes through. Forecast soundings show pockets of instability but weak shear with PWAT forecasts up to 1.8-1.9" (75th percentile or higher).
At this time, hazards are heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Will note that WPC has the TN Valley in a Marginal ERO again on Wednesday, so will watch for flooding potential.
Behind the front, cooler and drier air will filter in, decreasing cloud cover and dewpoints. Temps will only be a tad cooler, with highs in the low/mid 80s and lows in the lower 60s at night both Friday and Saturday.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
VFR conditions were present at the terminals at issuance. A few showers were ongoing across northern Alabama and portions of southern middle Tennessee, but anticipating much of the activity to cease for the terminals around 0Z. Not expecting much in the way of rain through Monday afternoon; although a stray shower or two cannot be ruled out. The main concern for the overnight period is patchy fog development. At this point, MVFR VIS is forecast tonight at both MSL and HSV. Some instances of patchy, dense fog are possible; however, confidence was too low to include in the TAFs at this time. We will monitor observations and trends and reassess with the next update. Any fog is expected to lift and dissipate through mid-morning on Monday. As for winds, they are forecast to be light and variable overnight and then increase slightly to around 5 knots and be from the southwest by Monday afternoon.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.
Northern Alabama,
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