Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Guntersville, AL
March 18, 2024 9:44 PM CDT (02:44 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:48 AM Sunset 6:56 PM Moonrise 12:51 PM Moonset 3:19 AM |
Area Discussion for - Huntsville, AL
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FXUS64 KHUN 190114 AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 814 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
New NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 814 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Breezy NW winds have continued this evening even after sunset, reinforcing this cool, dry air mass as temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s to lower 40s as of 01z. As an area of high pressure shifts eastward over the area overnight, these winds are expected to weaken and become very light. The combination of a clear sky, light winds, and this very dry air mass (dewpoints in the Teens) will allow temperatures to drop off quickly after Midnight -- with a hard freeze expected across the entire Tennessee Valley. Lows in the mid to upper 20s will be common by early Tuesday morning and a Freeze Warning is in effect from 06z to 14z to account for temperatures dropping well below the freezing mark. Those with sensitive outdoor plants should take steps to cover them and folks should remember to bring their pets indoors!
SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The center of this area of high pressure quickly weakens as it shifts southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
Models continue to show a weak surface front and associated longwave trough axis aloft stretching from SE Canada through the Ohio Valley and Southern Plains area by then. Advection of moisture and warmer temperatures aloft should help to provide warmer conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night. After reaching the mid to upper 50s in the afternoon, lows still look to drop into the mid 30s (east) to around 40 degrees (west). A decent pressure gradient develops between the front to the north and the weakening high over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This should keep winds from becoming light or calm Tuesday night, keeping frost at bay.
This weak front moves into the Tennessee Valley region Wednesday morning. This should continue to bring more moisture and warmer temperatures into the region. A canopy of mid level cloud cover is shown moving into locations north of the Tennessee River. These clouds look to become thicker and lower during the day. However, at this time, the lower levels of the atmosphere still look too dry for any rainfall to occur. Stronger warm air advection sets up along and ahead of the front. Kept close to current ensemble guidance with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees primarily, despite cloudy conditions. Given 925 mb temperatures, think that may still be reasonable. Lingering cloud cover near the front and moisture advection should continue and only allow lows to drop into the lower to mid 40s Wednesday night as the front stalls somewhere across northern Alabama.
How far the front sags southeast Thursday morning will have an impact on how warm it gets later in the day. Most models have cooler temperatures near and north of the Tennessee River, where the front may end up stalling. If it edges further south temperatures may be slightly cooler. Right now, that puts highs in the 61 to 66 degree range north of the river and mid/upper 60s further south. Cloud cover will also help to keep temperatures cooler than otherwise. A disturbance aloft develops along this front over eastern Texas in most guidance. This feature moves east along the front and could bring the area isolated to scattered showers late Thursday afternoon.
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
This shortwave disturbance will dig into the Tennessee Valley by Thursday night, bringing increasing rain chances overnight through Friday. Models still differ slightly regarding the timing of this system, but the consensus does show the main sfc low well over the Gulf of Mexico, keeping the better thermodynamic environment well to our south. Have kept thunder out of the forecast with dry conditions developing Friday night.
The weekend will start off on the cooler side, with highs in the low to mid 60s on Saturday and clearing skies. Radiational cooling will allow lows to fall into the lower 40s Saturday night into Sunday morning, but should warm up nicely Sunday afternoon as southerly flow starts to return to the area. In fact, could not really ask for a better forecast for Sunday, with mostly sunny skies and afternoon highs near 70 degrees. Overall, nothing too impactful expected within the long term period!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR and clear skies will prevail through Tuesday afternoon. The main concern will be gusty winds this evening and Tuesday afternoon. Northwest winds will remain breezy through this evening but subside and become light to calm late this evening and overnight. Southwesterly winds are then forecast to increase to 10-15 knots with gusts up to around 18 knots Tuesday afternoon.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ001>010-016.
TN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for TNZ076-096-097.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 814 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
New NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 814 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Breezy NW winds have continued this evening even after sunset, reinforcing this cool, dry air mass as temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s to lower 40s as of 01z. As an area of high pressure shifts eastward over the area overnight, these winds are expected to weaken and become very light. The combination of a clear sky, light winds, and this very dry air mass (dewpoints in the Teens) will allow temperatures to drop off quickly after Midnight -- with a hard freeze expected across the entire Tennessee Valley. Lows in the mid to upper 20s will be common by early Tuesday morning and a Freeze Warning is in effect from 06z to 14z to account for temperatures dropping well below the freezing mark. Those with sensitive outdoor plants should take steps to cover them and folks should remember to bring their pets indoors!
SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The center of this area of high pressure quickly weakens as it shifts southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
Models continue to show a weak surface front and associated longwave trough axis aloft stretching from SE Canada through the Ohio Valley and Southern Plains area by then. Advection of moisture and warmer temperatures aloft should help to provide warmer conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night. After reaching the mid to upper 50s in the afternoon, lows still look to drop into the mid 30s (east) to around 40 degrees (west). A decent pressure gradient develops between the front to the north and the weakening high over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This should keep winds from becoming light or calm Tuesday night, keeping frost at bay.
This weak front moves into the Tennessee Valley region Wednesday morning. This should continue to bring more moisture and warmer temperatures into the region. A canopy of mid level cloud cover is shown moving into locations north of the Tennessee River. These clouds look to become thicker and lower during the day. However, at this time, the lower levels of the atmosphere still look too dry for any rainfall to occur. Stronger warm air advection sets up along and ahead of the front. Kept close to current ensemble guidance with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees primarily, despite cloudy conditions. Given 925 mb temperatures, think that may still be reasonable. Lingering cloud cover near the front and moisture advection should continue and only allow lows to drop into the lower to mid 40s Wednesday night as the front stalls somewhere across northern Alabama.
How far the front sags southeast Thursday morning will have an impact on how warm it gets later in the day. Most models have cooler temperatures near and north of the Tennessee River, where the front may end up stalling. If it edges further south temperatures may be slightly cooler. Right now, that puts highs in the 61 to 66 degree range north of the river and mid/upper 60s further south. Cloud cover will also help to keep temperatures cooler than otherwise. A disturbance aloft develops along this front over eastern Texas in most guidance. This feature moves east along the front and could bring the area isolated to scattered showers late Thursday afternoon.
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
This shortwave disturbance will dig into the Tennessee Valley by Thursday night, bringing increasing rain chances overnight through Friday. Models still differ slightly regarding the timing of this system, but the consensus does show the main sfc low well over the Gulf of Mexico, keeping the better thermodynamic environment well to our south. Have kept thunder out of the forecast with dry conditions developing Friday night.
The weekend will start off on the cooler side, with highs in the low to mid 60s on Saturday and clearing skies. Radiational cooling will allow lows to fall into the lower 40s Saturday night into Sunday morning, but should warm up nicely Sunday afternoon as southerly flow starts to return to the area. In fact, could not really ask for a better forecast for Sunday, with mostly sunny skies and afternoon highs near 70 degrees. Overall, nothing too impactful expected within the long term period!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR and clear skies will prevail through Tuesday afternoon. The main concern will be gusty winds this evening and Tuesday afternoon. Northwest winds will remain breezy through this evening but subside and become light to calm late this evening and overnight. Southwesterly winds are then forecast to increase to 10-15 knots with gusts up to around 18 knots Tuesday afternoon.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ001>010-016.
TN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for TNZ076-096-097.
Airport Reports
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