Monday, December11, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Rome, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 4:33PM Monday December 11, 2017 12:39 AM EST (05:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:41AMMoonset 1:17PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Friendsville , PA
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location: 41.88, -75.96     debug

Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 110000
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
700 pm est Sun dec 10 2017

Scattered snow showers tonight, mainly in central ny, with a period
of locally heavy snow in northern oneida county. Quiet on Monday
before a clipper system brings potentially significant accumulating
snow Monday night through Tuesday. There will also be a period
of lake effect snow Tuesday night through Wednesday night that
could bring additional significant accumulations to central ny.

Near term through Monday
645 pm update
adjusted the forecast based on the latest radar hi-res model
trends for the lake effect snow tonight. Tried to tighten the
pop gradient, indicating the highest chances for snow across
northern onondaga and oneida counties for the first half of
tonight. Then, late tonight or early Monday morning a subtle,
low level arctic frontal boundary will cross lake ontario and
move into the northern portion of our cwa. It is likely this
feature will pick up the ongoing les band over lake ontario and
push it inland (south), toward syracuse rome... At least briefly
early Monday morning. Winds will shift to the northwest behind
this front over the northern third of the forecast area... The
front will wash out and dissipate before reaching the ny pa
border. The snow shower activity could briefly make it south to
around penn yan, ithaca and cortland before tapering to
flurries mid-morning Monday. Further south, it should remain dry
but mostly cloudy through the near term period. Snow
accumulations tonight into Monday morning will range from 2-4
inches in far northern oneida county (where the winter weather
advy for lake effect snow continues)... To 1-2 inches for
syracuse and rome and less than 1 inch elsewhere. Overnight lows
dip into the lower to mid-20s areawide. Highs on Monday will be
in the mid to upper 20s north... With lower to mid-30s across
our pa zones.

245 pm update... Main forecast concerns in the
near term remain focused on the scattered snow showers across
central ny and NE pa this afternoon and evening, and the return
of a lake effect snow band off lake ontario into the thruway in
central ny tonight... Tapering off Monday morning.

A winter weather advisory for lake effect snow remains in effect for
northern oneida county... Through 7 am Monday morning.

Conditions continue to be favorable for snow showers this afternoon
as strong cyclonic flow in a very cold air mass persists.

Intense les bands downwind of erie and ontario continue as of 3
pm this afternoon... And large scale, scattered snow showers
linger over a good portion of central ny and far NE pa. Boundary
layer has become deep enough to entrain some dry air
aloft... Which is acting to mix some of the cloud cover out. As
this occurs though, the bl is able to heat up and slowly
becomes more unstable which produces more clouds and snow
showers as a result.

The flow is expected to back to the SW this evening and as that
occurs, the le bands will shift further to the north. The diurnal
heating will weaken this evening as well with the loss of sun, and
allow the scattered snow showers to taper off. So... Most of the late
evening and early overnight hours may be quiet and cool with temperatures
tonight falling into the low to mid 20s.

Later tonight and Monday morning the flow will veer back to the W nw
and shift the lake ontario band back into central ny. As this
occurs though the inversion heights will fall below the
dgz... Which will act to diminish the snow production
significantly. The les band will likely become diffuse and weak
Monday morning before falling apart altogether. However, there
will likely be a period tonight across portions of oneida county
where the snowfall rates ramp up for a brief period of time and
drop an additional 1 to 3 inches on top of the 1 to 3 they
already received earlier today. Other areas to the south will
likely see an inch or less.

The rest of Monday looks quiet and on the cool side with highs only
into the upper 20s across the north, and the lower to mid 30s in ne

Short term Monday night through Tuesday
330 pm update
model guidance is showing increasing confidence in
a low pressure system moving across ny Monday night into the day
on Tuesday. The latest guidance tracks the center of the
surface low over lake erie, then to a position near rochester by
Tuesday morning. Ample warm air advection precipitation(snow) is
forecast to develop out ahead of this low pressure system,
beginning late Monday evening for much of our forecast area.

With the track of the low to our north, this will keep surface
winds out of the south-southeast and breezy at times (10-20
mph). This type of flow will keep some areas downwind of the
higher catskills and especially poconos shadowed from the higher
precip snow rates. By midday Tuesday the surface low begins to
jump, and reform along the new england coast. This could allow
for some enhanced wrap around snowfall to impact the far eastern
portion of our CWA during this time... But the snow will really
pick up just off to our east... Over far eastern ny and new
england. Right now, storm total snowfall from this first system
is forecast to range from about 1-3 inches for our NE pa
zones... With 2-4 inches for our ny zones... Except 4-8 inches in
oneida county where the southerly flow upslopes in the southern
tug hill plateau. Will hold off on any winter headlines at this
time, and let the evening overnight shift take another look at
the latest model guidance trends.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
330 pm update... Closed mid upper low moves overhead Tuesday
night into Wednesday as strong cold air advection continues.

This will bring lake effect enhanced snows across much of the
area with a northwest flow and deep moisture. Best chance for
potentially significant accumulations will be over over the
higher ground of central ny, particularly the finger lakes but
expect measurable snow down into nepa as well. It is likely that
headlines will eventually be needed for parts of the area for
this event. Preliminary forecasts point to the potential for 3-6
inches of snow across most of our ny zones... With locally higher
amounts were the lake bands set up. Amounts during this time
will be lighter in NE pa, and could range from 1 to 3 inches,
mainly in the higher terrain. Little change through Wednesday as
850 mb temps bottom out near -18c over the area and the NW flow
lake snows continues.

Flow becomes more westerly and relaxes on Thursday so snow
showers will taper off. However, unsettled weather will continue
through Friday with trofiness aloft, a clipper moving into the
great lakes, and systems running up the coast to our east.

Confidence in forecast is low to moderate until Friday when
global models diverge quite a bit on positioning and timing of
disturbances diving around the base of the trof and interacting
with the front along the coastal plain. Chance pops during this
time and some moderation of temperatures with flatter flow and
slight warm advection. Temperatures look to potentially warm
above freezing into the mid-30s to lower 40s by next Sunday, as
a storm system passes by well to our north. This system will
bring chances for rain and snow showers, and perhaps some mixed

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Expect mainlyVFR or MVFR conditions to persist through the
overnight hours with just a few flurries around. The exception
to this will be at ksyr and krme, where periods of snow showers
will continue until Monday morning and will create MVFR to
occasional ifr CIGS vis. Snow will taper off between 13-16z
Monday morning at krme and ksyr, with conditions returning to
vfr here after that time.

Winds will veer to the NW later tonight as a frontal boundary
drops down from the north. This wind shift will mainly be felt
at ksyr, krme and kith... But could also briefly make it south to
kbgm and kelm. Wind speeds will mainly be from 7 to 15 kts
tonight into Monday morning. Monday afternoon winds become light
and variable, before shifting to the south-southeast Monday
evening and increasing.


Monday afternoon... GenerallyVFR.

Monday night through Tuesday... A period of snow likely with
restrictions as a clipper system moves through the region.

Tuesday night through Friday... Snow showers and associated
restrictions, mainly ny terminals due to lake effect.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Monday for nyz009.

Synopsis... Bjt mjm
near term... Bjt mjm
short term... Mjm
long term... Mjm
aviation... Bjt mjm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY29 mi46 minWSW 910.00 miOvercast26°F16°F66%1013 hPa

Wind History from BGM (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW4W4W5W6W6W9SW6W8W7W10W9W10W11W10SW8SW12
1 day agoSW4SW5SW6S3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE5S6SE4CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W6W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.