Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mitchell, IN
June 2, 2024 3:51 PM EDT (19:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:19 AM Sunset 9:08 PM Moonrise 2:41 AM Moonset 4:02 PM |
Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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FXUS63 KIND 021840 AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 240 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Potential for patchy fog Monday morning
- Warmer next week with periodic thunderstorm chances.
The best chances will be Wednesday.
- Below normal temperatures in the 70s late week into the weekend
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Tonight
The stratus has been slow to depart through early afternoon as Hi- Res soundings were indicating a deep saturated or near saturated boundary layer with winds less than 10 knots in that layer. This is certainly not ideal for the dry air aloft to completely mix down. In addition, a dissipating low pressure system was moving east across central Indiana and this and the moist boundary layer have been responsible for a few light showers and or sprinkles. In addition, LAPS and SPC mesoanalysis data was showing CAPEs up to 1200 J/kg over south central sections of central Indiana. So, will keep thunder chances going for a few more hours. Lack of forcing and shear along with upper ridging suggests coverage will be 20% or less and any storm cells that do develop will not last long.
Should see a gradual improvement in sky cover late today and especially this evening. However, there will be enough moisture in the boundary layer overnight combined with very light to calm winds to produce at least patches of low clouds and or fog. Assuming some low cloud cover and fog, temperatures will not make it any cooler than the upper 50s and lower 60s. It could get a few degrees cooler if sky cover and fog are not present.
Monday
Winds will shift to the south Monday in the wake of a warm front lifting northeast. Meanwhile, Hi-Res soundings are showing nice drying, even in the lower levels. So, should see a good degree of sunshine by mid morning and perhaps only some passing high clouds and scattered fair weather diurnal cu. However, would not be shocked if convection makes it as far east as the upper Wabash Valley late in the day ahead of an upper wave that will be lifting northeast across the Ozarks.
Temperatures will be much warmer Monday with the increased sunshine and southerly low level winds. DESI 25th and 75th percentile spreads are rather small giving good confidence on highs near the 2m max temperatures in the middle to upper 80s to be realized.
.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The long range forecast is active through the middle of the week with cooler weather arriving by the weekend.
Tuesday through Wednesday...
The first round of storm chances arrive on Tuesday ahead of a weakening upper trough and mid level wave approaching from the south and west. This system will be in the process of being absorbed by a much stronger negatively tilted upper trough in Southern Canada and the Northern Plains. While the best dynamics, forcing, and wind energy will be further north and west of the region, the potential is there for mesoscale boundaries and waves within the warm, unstable environment to be the main forcing for convective development Tuesday. Unfortunately, this leads to a low confidence forecast as guidance greatly struggles with resolving these boundaries and meso to microscale features this far out. How storms and boundaries evolve and progress on Monday further west will likely have an effect on what happens Tuesday. For now, expect a typical humid, warm summer environment with thunderstorms developing during the day. Widespread severe weather threat looks low at the moment, but an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out.
Better forcing for ascent and more widespread convection arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday as the aforementioned negatively tilted trough over the Upper Midwest pushes into the Great Lakes region with a healthy low level jet developing over Indiana. Strongest upper level flow look to be offset from the stronger low to mid level winds as the main jet streak and trough axis don't push into Indiana until Wednesday night, after the main low level front already push through. Despite upper level support possibly out of sync with the strongest low level flow and forcing, widespread convection still looks likely early Wednesday morning through the afternoon hours. Instability during the morning hours will likely be mainly elevated with weak low level lapse rates resulting in low chances for severe weather despite 25-35 kts of 0-3km shear. Would not rule out an isolated strong storm especially if a strong downdraft can punch through the low level inversion, but this set up looks more like a heavy rainfall threat at the moment. Since this is a few days out, confidence on exact mesoscale details is still lower, but confidence on heavy rainfall and thunderstorms occurring on Wednesday is higher. With the presence of widespread rain, guidance likely is too high with max temperatures in the 80s, but the potential is there for highs to reach those levels if there is clearing behind storms during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Thursday through the weekend...
High confidence in a northwesterly flow pattern setting up across Indiana Thursday into the weekend. Longer range guidance has been consistent with showing persist troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS with high pressure setting up over the Plains states. This pattern features a strong upper jet from the northern Plains southeastward into the Great Lakes with numerous waves riding along the jet. While there is high confidence in this pattern setting up, much lower confidence exists regarding timing, placement, track of these smaller waves which will bring occasional chances for showers and storms. The end of the week and into the weekend will not be wash out by any means; however it will be difficult to pin point wet periods versus dry periods as that is all dependent on small mesoscale features, boundaries, and waves which are nearly impossible to track this far out. This pattern does support below normal temperatures with highs possibly not getting out of the 70s some days. For anyone with interests or outdoor plans this weekend, it is highly recommended to check back daily for updates on the weather as the forecast will likely change as confidence rises in timing of rain and storm chances.
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Impacts:
- MVFR and possibly brief VFR conditions to start off
- Would not rule out thunder at all but KLAF
- Would not rule out more IFR conditions after 06z-09z in stratus or fog
Discussion:
The deep boundary layer is showing signs of some dry air entrainment with ceilings mostly improved to MVFR late this morning. This trend should continue this afternoon with dry air and a high sun angle.
That said, winds were less than 10 knots through and adjacent to the boundary layer, so mixing will be limited.
Would not completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm over any TAF site except KLAF as the atmosphere has become unstable. However, with the cold front east of the terminals and ridging building in, chances too low to put in any form in the TAFs.
Low stratus or fog will be possible overnight as winds go very light to calm. Winds will shift to the south and increase to closer to 10 knots towards Monday afternoon.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 240 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Potential for patchy fog Monday morning
- Warmer next week with periodic thunderstorm chances.
The best chances will be Wednesday.
- Below normal temperatures in the 70s late week into the weekend
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Tonight
The stratus has been slow to depart through early afternoon as Hi- Res soundings were indicating a deep saturated or near saturated boundary layer with winds less than 10 knots in that layer. This is certainly not ideal for the dry air aloft to completely mix down. In addition, a dissipating low pressure system was moving east across central Indiana and this and the moist boundary layer have been responsible for a few light showers and or sprinkles. In addition, LAPS and SPC mesoanalysis data was showing CAPEs up to 1200 J/kg over south central sections of central Indiana. So, will keep thunder chances going for a few more hours. Lack of forcing and shear along with upper ridging suggests coverage will be 20% or less and any storm cells that do develop will not last long.
Should see a gradual improvement in sky cover late today and especially this evening. However, there will be enough moisture in the boundary layer overnight combined with very light to calm winds to produce at least patches of low clouds and or fog. Assuming some low cloud cover and fog, temperatures will not make it any cooler than the upper 50s and lower 60s. It could get a few degrees cooler if sky cover and fog are not present.
Monday
Winds will shift to the south Monday in the wake of a warm front lifting northeast. Meanwhile, Hi-Res soundings are showing nice drying, even in the lower levels. So, should see a good degree of sunshine by mid morning and perhaps only some passing high clouds and scattered fair weather diurnal cu. However, would not be shocked if convection makes it as far east as the upper Wabash Valley late in the day ahead of an upper wave that will be lifting northeast across the Ozarks.
Temperatures will be much warmer Monday with the increased sunshine and southerly low level winds. DESI 25th and 75th percentile spreads are rather small giving good confidence on highs near the 2m max temperatures in the middle to upper 80s to be realized.
.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The long range forecast is active through the middle of the week with cooler weather arriving by the weekend.
Tuesday through Wednesday...
The first round of storm chances arrive on Tuesday ahead of a weakening upper trough and mid level wave approaching from the south and west. This system will be in the process of being absorbed by a much stronger negatively tilted upper trough in Southern Canada and the Northern Plains. While the best dynamics, forcing, and wind energy will be further north and west of the region, the potential is there for mesoscale boundaries and waves within the warm, unstable environment to be the main forcing for convective development Tuesday. Unfortunately, this leads to a low confidence forecast as guidance greatly struggles with resolving these boundaries and meso to microscale features this far out. How storms and boundaries evolve and progress on Monday further west will likely have an effect on what happens Tuesday. For now, expect a typical humid, warm summer environment with thunderstorms developing during the day. Widespread severe weather threat looks low at the moment, but an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out.
Better forcing for ascent and more widespread convection arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday as the aforementioned negatively tilted trough over the Upper Midwest pushes into the Great Lakes region with a healthy low level jet developing over Indiana. Strongest upper level flow look to be offset from the stronger low to mid level winds as the main jet streak and trough axis don't push into Indiana until Wednesday night, after the main low level front already push through. Despite upper level support possibly out of sync with the strongest low level flow and forcing, widespread convection still looks likely early Wednesday morning through the afternoon hours. Instability during the morning hours will likely be mainly elevated with weak low level lapse rates resulting in low chances for severe weather despite 25-35 kts of 0-3km shear. Would not rule out an isolated strong storm especially if a strong downdraft can punch through the low level inversion, but this set up looks more like a heavy rainfall threat at the moment. Since this is a few days out, confidence on exact mesoscale details is still lower, but confidence on heavy rainfall and thunderstorms occurring on Wednesday is higher. With the presence of widespread rain, guidance likely is too high with max temperatures in the 80s, but the potential is there for highs to reach those levels if there is clearing behind storms during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Thursday through the weekend...
High confidence in a northwesterly flow pattern setting up across Indiana Thursday into the weekend. Longer range guidance has been consistent with showing persist troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS with high pressure setting up over the Plains states. This pattern features a strong upper jet from the northern Plains southeastward into the Great Lakes with numerous waves riding along the jet. While there is high confidence in this pattern setting up, much lower confidence exists regarding timing, placement, track of these smaller waves which will bring occasional chances for showers and storms. The end of the week and into the weekend will not be wash out by any means; however it will be difficult to pin point wet periods versus dry periods as that is all dependent on small mesoscale features, boundaries, and waves which are nearly impossible to track this far out. This pattern does support below normal temperatures with highs possibly not getting out of the 70s some days. For anyone with interests or outdoor plans this weekend, it is highly recommended to check back daily for updates on the weather as the forecast will likely change as confidence rises in timing of rain and storm chances.
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Impacts:
- MVFR and possibly brief VFR conditions to start off
- Would not rule out thunder at all but KLAF
- Would not rule out more IFR conditions after 06z-09z in stratus or fog
Discussion:
The deep boundary layer is showing signs of some dry air entrainment with ceilings mostly improved to MVFR late this morning. This trend should continue this afternoon with dry air and a high sun angle.
That said, winds were less than 10 knots through and adjacent to the boundary layer, so mixing will be limited.
Would not completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm over any TAF site except KLAF as the atmosphere has become unstable. However, with the cold front east of the terminals and ridging building in, chances too low to put in any form in the TAFs.
Low stratus or fog will be possible overnight as winds go very light to calm. Winds will shift to the south and increase to closer to 10 knots towards Monday afternoon.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFRH FRENCH LICK MUNI,IN | 19 sm | 16 min | NW 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 77°F | 63°F | 61% | 29.96 |
Louisville, KY,
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