Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mitchell, IN
March 19, 2024 1:06 AM EDT (05:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:48 AM Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 1:38 PM Moonset 4:20 AM |
Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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FXUS63 KIND 190113 AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 913 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A Hard Freeze Tonight - Partly Cloudy and Warmer on Tuesday - Wind gusts near 35 mph on Tuesday - Elevated fire weather risk on Tuesday - Rain possible Friday, again early next week.
FORECAST UPDATE
Issued at 913 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Geocolor loop, ob trends and 850 millibar rh progs support slowing down clear just a bit, otherwise, skies will be clearing late this evening and early overnight. The clearing along with cold advection from northwest winds along with dew points in the teens and lower 20s will allow for another hard freeze. Overnight lows near sunrise in the lower to middle 20s continue to look good.
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Synopsis:
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure centered over KS/OK. Low pressure was found near the mouth of the St. Lawrence River, with a surface trough that extended SW across Quebec and Ontario to Michigan. Aloft, deep low pressure was found over Quebec and Hudson Bay, resulting in cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern half of the CONUS. An upper trough axis associated with this low, stretched across the eastern Great Lakes, to Western OH, southern Indiana and western KY. Radar shows scattered snow showers across northern Indiana in the wake of this feature and isolated flurries were found over parts of Central Indiana. Cold northwest flow was in place and cold air advection was ongoing.
Tonight...
Model suggest the upper trough, already to the southeast of Central Indiana will continue to exit east. This will leave northwest upper flow still in place with strong ridging in place over the west coast and shallower but a broader trough in place across the east, including Indiana. Forecast soundings tonight trend toward a dry column as subsidence and mid level drying build across the area in the wake of the trough. Models suggest the lower levels also dry out considerably by early evening. Meanwhile at the surface the strong high pressure system to the west is expected to sink to Texas, while low pressure settles over Lake Superior. This will set up a strong transport of dry western air to Indiana and the Ohio Valley. Strong warm air advection will begin late tonight, but this will not arrive in time to prevent a fall of temperatures to below freezing.
Overall, decreasing clouds this evening and dry air in place at the surface will allow for temperatures to fall in to the middle and perhaps lower 20s. Once again, this may lead to damage to isolated plant growth that has developed in recent weeks across Central Indiana. Again, we will issue a SPS to address this.
Tuesday...
Gusty winds and warmer weather is expected on Tuesday.
Models show strong warm air advection in place on Tuesday as strong high pressure across eastern TX and LA along with low pressure over the Great Lakes provide an ideal transport of warmer air from the plains through the day. Models show a nose of warmer air surging toward Central Indiana by the afternoon with 850mb temps rise to 0C.
Also of note, within the northwest upper flow a strong LLJ near 40- 50 knots is expected to arrive in the morning before passing by the late afternoon. A dry column is indicated by the forecast soundings and time heights as the dry and warmer westerly flow persists. This will allow for good mixing through the day, and also allow for interaction with the moderate LLJ aloft resulting in gusty winds.
Thus wind gusts around 35 mph will be possible on Tuesday.
Furthermore this should allow temperatures reach the lower and middle 50s across the area, under mostly sunny skies.
The gusty winds and low relative humidity will lead to an elevated Fire weather risk on Tuesday. Fuel moisture remains high.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Generally quiet weather can be expected early in the long range as dry northwesterly aloft prevails. At the surface, a cold front will have recently passed through the state and we will find ourselves within strong cold air advection. High pressure associated with the cold continental air mass builds in during the day on Wednesday.
Anticyclonic flow across the region may lead to less cloud cover compared to today, despite similar magnitude cold air advection.
Therefore, with greater solar insolation high temps should be warmer than today...likely well into the 40s. However, highs Wednesday and Thursday likely trend below the climatological average for this time of year (low 50s). As the surface high settles in late Wednesday, clear skies and generally light winds may allow for good radiational cooling. To account for this, we went a bit under guidance for low temps Thursday morning.
By late week, a cut-off upper low across the Desert Southwest looks to finally break down and progress eastward. This feature may partially phase with a wave in the polar jet and bring some precipitation to Indiana. Overall, with a lack of moisture and incomplete phasing...am not expecting widespread heavy precipitation.
Rather, amounts should remain on the light side with totals generally under a quarter of an inch. Trends within guidance will need to be monitored, in case greater phasing is favored in later runs. However, recent trends have been towards less phasing between the two features.
Ensemble guidance is hinting at more significant troughing late in the weekend and/or early next week. While deterministic models all differ in how they handle the downstream evolution, the overall synoptic signal appears in most of them. NAEFS/ECMWF situational awareness tables likewise show a similar signal starting to appear around this timeframe. In terms of sensible weather, Indiana looks to be on the eastern end of a potentially amplified trough which favors warm moist advection and rain/thunderstorms. It is too early to determine if there will be severe weather.
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 501 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Impacts:
- The gusty northwest winds will subside to 10 knots or less by or just after 00z this evening
- Winds will shift to the southwest and west with gusts to over 30 knots at times after 13z Tuesday
Discussion:
The upper trough will shift to the southeast of the terminals this evening. This, a drying column per Hi-Res soundings and sunset should allow skies to clear overnight with just perhaps some patchy high clouds.
Loss of mixing at sunset should allow wind gusts to subside after 00z. Winds will be northwest and then west mostly less than 10 knots. However, then a cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday. Tightening surface pressure gradient and more mixing will will in wind gusts to 30+ knots at times during the afternoon.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 913 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A Hard Freeze Tonight - Partly Cloudy and Warmer on Tuesday - Wind gusts near 35 mph on Tuesday - Elevated fire weather risk on Tuesday - Rain possible Friday, again early next week.
FORECAST UPDATE
Issued at 913 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Geocolor loop, ob trends and 850 millibar rh progs support slowing down clear just a bit, otherwise, skies will be clearing late this evening and early overnight. The clearing along with cold advection from northwest winds along with dew points in the teens and lower 20s will allow for another hard freeze. Overnight lows near sunrise in the lower to middle 20s continue to look good.
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Synopsis:
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure centered over KS/OK. Low pressure was found near the mouth of the St. Lawrence River, with a surface trough that extended SW across Quebec and Ontario to Michigan. Aloft, deep low pressure was found over Quebec and Hudson Bay, resulting in cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern half of the CONUS. An upper trough axis associated with this low, stretched across the eastern Great Lakes, to Western OH, southern Indiana and western KY. Radar shows scattered snow showers across northern Indiana in the wake of this feature and isolated flurries were found over parts of Central Indiana. Cold northwest flow was in place and cold air advection was ongoing.
Tonight...
Model suggest the upper trough, already to the southeast of Central Indiana will continue to exit east. This will leave northwest upper flow still in place with strong ridging in place over the west coast and shallower but a broader trough in place across the east, including Indiana. Forecast soundings tonight trend toward a dry column as subsidence and mid level drying build across the area in the wake of the trough. Models suggest the lower levels also dry out considerably by early evening. Meanwhile at the surface the strong high pressure system to the west is expected to sink to Texas, while low pressure settles over Lake Superior. This will set up a strong transport of dry western air to Indiana and the Ohio Valley. Strong warm air advection will begin late tonight, but this will not arrive in time to prevent a fall of temperatures to below freezing.
Overall, decreasing clouds this evening and dry air in place at the surface will allow for temperatures to fall in to the middle and perhaps lower 20s. Once again, this may lead to damage to isolated plant growth that has developed in recent weeks across Central Indiana. Again, we will issue a SPS to address this.
Tuesday...
Gusty winds and warmer weather is expected on Tuesday.
Models show strong warm air advection in place on Tuesday as strong high pressure across eastern TX and LA along with low pressure over the Great Lakes provide an ideal transport of warmer air from the plains through the day. Models show a nose of warmer air surging toward Central Indiana by the afternoon with 850mb temps rise to 0C.
Also of note, within the northwest upper flow a strong LLJ near 40- 50 knots is expected to arrive in the morning before passing by the late afternoon. A dry column is indicated by the forecast soundings and time heights as the dry and warmer westerly flow persists. This will allow for good mixing through the day, and also allow for interaction with the moderate LLJ aloft resulting in gusty winds.
Thus wind gusts around 35 mph will be possible on Tuesday.
Furthermore this should allow temperatures reach the lower and middle 50s across the area, under mostly sunny skies.
The gusty winds and low relative humidity will lead to an elevated Fire weather risk on Tuesday. Fuel moisture remains high.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Generally quiet weather can be expected early in the long range as dry northwesterly aloft prevails. At the surface, a cold front will have recently passed through the state and we will find ourselves within strong cold air advection. High pressure associated with the cold continental air mass builds in during the day on Wednesday.
Anticyclonic flow across the region may lead to less cloud cover compared to today, despite similar magnitude cold air advection.
Therefore, with greater solar insolation high temps should be warmer than today...likely well into the 40s. However, highs Wednesday and Thursday likely trend below the climatological average for this time of year (low 50s). As the surface high settles in late Wednesday, clear skies and generally light winds may allow for good radiational cooling. To account for this, we went a bit under guidance for low temps Thursday morning.
By late week, a cut-off upper low across the Desert Southwest looks to finally break down and progress eastward. This feature may partially phase with a wave in the polar jet and bring some precipitation to Indiana. Overall, with a lack of moisture and incomplete phasing...am not expecting widespread heavy precipitation.
Rather, amounts should remain on the light side with totals generally under a quarter of an inch. Trends within guidance will need to be monitored, in case greater phasing is favored in later runs. However, recent trends have been towards less phasing between the two features.
Ensemble guidance is hinting at more significant troughing late in the weekend and/or early next week. While deterministic models all differ in how they handle the downstream evolution, the overall synoptic signal appears in most of them. NAEFS/ECMWF situational awareness tables likewise show a similar signal starting to appear around this timeframe. In terms of sensible weather, Indiana looks to be on the eastern end of a potentially amplified trough which favors warm moist advection and rain/thunderstorms. It is too early to determine if there will be severe weather.
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 501 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Impacts:
- The gusty northwest winds will subside to 10 knots or less by or just after 00z this evening
- Winds will shift to the southwest and west with gusts to over 30 knots at times after 13z Tuesday
Discussion:
The upper trough will shift to the southeast of the terminals this evening. This, a drying column per Hi-Res soundings and sunset should allow skies to clear overnight with just perhaps some patchy high clouds.
Loss of mixing at sunset should allow wind gusts to subside after 00z. Winds will be northwest and then west mostly less than 10 knots. However, then a cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday. Tightening surface pressure gradient and more mixing will will in wind gusts to 30+ knots at times during the afternoon.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KBFR VIRGIL I GRISSOM MUNI,IN | 6 sm | 11 min | W 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 32°F | 19°F | 59% | 30.17 | |
KFRH FRENCH LICK MUNI,IN | 19 sm | 11 min | calm | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 30°F | 18°F | 59% | 30.19 |
Louisville, KY,
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