Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 12:58 PM   Moonset 12:46 AM

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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 1001 Pm Cdt Fri Jun 14 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. A moderate chop on the bay, diminishing to light chop early in the morning. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Monday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely early in the evening, then a chance of showers in the late evening and overnight. Tuesday - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming around 15 knots late in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely early in the evening, then a chance of showers in the late evening and overnight. Wednesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 1001 Pm Cdt Fri Jun 14 2024
Synopsis - Favorable marine conditions are forecast through the weekend as high pressure dominates the northern and western gulf of mexico. Winds and seas slowly increase next week as an area of low pressure possibly develops over the bay of campeche strengthening the pressure gradient across the southwest gulf. Mariners need to Monitor the forecast daily for increasing winds, seas and the chance of heavy showers and Thunderstorms most of next week.

FXUS64 KBRO 142332 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 632 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Atmosphere does not change much between today and Saturday night with Deep South Texas in between a mid-level ridge over NW Mexico and over the South/SE States. A weak inverted trough is noted over the Central and Southern Gulf extending over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and a shortwave trough is expected to pass east across the Central Plains Saturday. Atmospheric moisture remains limited in the lower 800mb with very dry air aloft. Any showers or thunderstorms will be very isolated along the daily afternoon sea breeze with all deterministic models indicating pops only in the 5-15 percent range. At this time with low confidence and the low guidance will keep pops at silent 10 percent.

This leaves us with the heat with no real changes in this element either. Above normal highs are once again forecast with the NBM continuing to be under achieving recent maximums. Have bumped up the highs for Saturday a few degrees to accommodate this shortfall. Heat indices Saturday afternoon to range from 105-110 degrees with an hour or two of 112 degrees in a few spots. Overnight lows continue to elevated with persistence the best forecast here. Expect minimums Saturday and Sunday morning to range from 75-80.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Key Messages:

* Confidence continues to increase on a potential tropical system over the Southwest Gulf of Mexico next week bringing Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley beneficial, soaking rains next week

* National Hurricane Center (NHC) has medium (50%) chance for tropical development over the Southwest Gulf of Mexico over the next 7 days.

* Current forecast suggest 2-5 inches of rain could fall by Friday with locally higher amounts up to 7 inches.

* Rain are expected to come in waves in the form of showers and storms with the greatest concentration and rain amounts between Wednesday and Friday

* Adverse marine conditions are expected to develop next week (includes increased rip current, high surf, and coastal flood risk)

The long-term forecast period will continue to focus on the increasing prospects of a much-needed, beneficial, soaking rainfall.
Global deterministic forecast models and ensembles have come into better agreement from previous iterations for a tropical system to develop over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (SWGOM) near the Bay on Campeche around Tuesday of next week. This tropical system is then forecast to shift west-northwest into eastern Mexico. Despite the core of the tropical system being located well to our south, forecast models/ensembles are indicating a plume of deep tropical moisture advecting into the region through next week in the form of multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The highest probabilities/confidence and rainfall/QPF amounts are expected to occur between Wednesday and Friday. Currently, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has continues to monitor and has a medium (50%) chance for tropical development over the southwestern parts of the Gulf of Mexico over the next 7 days.

We open up the long-term period on Sunday which will be our driest day of the new week and a day that will feature very warm to hot and humid conditions under a mix of sun and clouds. Daytime highs are expected to range between the upper 90s to lower 100s and heat indices between 105-111F degrees. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out, particularly near the coast amid increased sfc based differential heating during the afternoon hours. Monday- Tuesday, precipitation chances and coverage of precipitation increases from east to west as the tropical system becomes better organized and deep tropical moisture associated with it continues to advect into the region. Currently have 30-60% PoPs on Monday from McAllen and points east with the highest probabilities over/along the island. By Tuesday, those numbers and coverage increase a bit more. Have 30-70% PoPs from Starr/Jim Hogg County to the coast with the coastal areas having the highest probabilities. As highlighted earlier, we expect for any showers and thunderstorms to come in waves from the outer bands of the developing tropical system to our south. Underneath a scorching 594-597 dam heat dome centered over the eastern U.S., 500mb heights around 588 dam and 850 mb temps sampled between 20-25C will still result in very warm to hot and humid conditions continuing Monday and Tuesday. That said, daytime highs both days will range from the mid 90s to lower 100s with heat indices potentially stronger than on Sunday due to higher humidity levels as heat indices are expected to be between 106-113F.

Wednesday through Friday, the meat of this tropical rainfall event will take place. That's where we'll see a greater concentration and occurrence of tropical downpours to take place. As mentioned, rain will come in waves of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. We have categorical PoPs across the entire region through much of this period (Wednesday through Friday). During this time period, max precipitable water (PWAT) values were sampled and are expected to range between 2-3 inches which is +2 to +3 STDEVs above normal, according to the latest 12z guidances. Additionally, plenty of moisture advection will be in place as the Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) anomalies are ranging between +1 to +3 STDEVs above normal. That said, preliminary forecast amounts between 2-5 inches can be expected across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley by Friday afternoon with locally higher amounts up to 7 inches for areas that see repeated instances of heavy downpours.

This rain couldn't have come at a better time as the Falcon Reservoir water levels are at critical levels and much of the area is under a D0 (Abnormally Dry) to a D1 (Moderate Drought), according to the latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor. Year to date, precipitation deficits for Brownsville, Harlingen, and McAllen are as follows: -2.32", -1.63", and -1.08", respectively. If all is realized, this should flip many of our ASOS/Climate sites from a rain deficit to a surplus for the year, end the drought over the region, and improve the water levels over our reservoirs.

Given the very dry antecedent conditions, RFC's flash flood guidance (FFGs) are high across the region with the 1 hour ranging between 3- 4 inches along the Rio Grande Valley and 5-8 inches over the Northern Ranchlands, and the 3 hour FFGs ranging between 3-5 inches over the Rio Grande Valley and 5-9 inches over the Northern Ranchlands. Given that the rainfall expected is expected over a 3 day span, flash flooding is not expected at this time. That said, given that we are in a floodplain, there could be areas of general flooding over urban/poor drainage and low-lying flood prone areas next week (particularly in the Wednesday through Friday timeframe).

All told, elevated seas are anticipated along the Lower Texas Coast next week (please see the Marine section below). An elevated risk of rip currents (Moderate or High), Coastal Flood products (Advisory or Warning), and High Surf products (Advisory or Warning) will likely be needed at the local beaches and/or over the Gulf Waters.

Given the amount of cloud coverage and rounds of showers and thunderstorms, temperatures will be tempered Wednesday through Friday with highs ranging between the upper 80s to mid 90s across the region. Nights will be continued warm and muggy (though not as warm as early in the period) with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Mostly clear skies and moderate east winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this evening. Easterly winds will remain light overnight into Saturday morning with brief gustiness between 19-24Z as the sea breeze front moves inland. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

MARINE
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Tonight through Saturday night...Weak pressure gradient persist through Saturday night with gentle to light easterly to southeast flow. A slight sea with little to no swell is expected through Saturday with a low swell arriving form the east Saturday night.
Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible.

Sunday through Friday Night....Adverse marine conditions (including high seas over the Gulf) are expected to develop next week amid the developing tropical system. In addition to waves of showers and thunderstorms, an elevated risk of rip currents (Moderate or High), coastal flood products (Advisory or Warning), High Surf products (Advisory or Warning) at the local beaches and/or Gulf Waters will likely needed next week especially mid to late week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 98 80 96 / 10 10 10 40 HARLINGEN 76 98 75 97 / 0 10 10 30 MCALLEN 78 101 78 99 / 0 10 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 103 77 100 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 89 83 88 / 10 10 20 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 94 80 93 / 10 10 10 40

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Matamoros
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Fri -- 12:46 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:24 AM CST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:38 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:58 AM CST     0.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:57 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:48 PM CST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:23 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:35 PM CST     0.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

Port Isabel
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Fri -- 12:19 AM CDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 01:45 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:33 AM CDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:00 AM CDT     0.95 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:56 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:31 PM CDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

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