Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 2:23 AM   Moonset 3:34 PM

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FXUS62 KCAE 021428 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1028 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Moisture continues to increase over the region through mid week.
This will lead to isolated to scattered convection mainly in the afternoons and evenings. A cold front approaches the Southeast late in the week leading to increasing rain chances. Temperatures should rise to near normal values over the next few days.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Satellite imagery shows that clouds have generally spread across almost the entire forecast area. Radar continues to show some light rain showers across the region, with ground sites generally reporting a few hundredths up to two tenths of an inch of accumulation. Showers will continue to be supported by a few shortwaves moving through the flow today, but instability is generally lacking this morning. However, instability increases somewhat for this afternoon, especially since dewpoints have been running a bit higher than initially forecast. Warm air advection has also warmed temperatures into the low to mid 70s already, despite the cloud cover. There are some breaks in the clouds across eastern GA which should move into the region allowing for ample heating to generate 700-1200 J/kg of SBCAPE, so still think there is a chance for some thunder this afternoon as showers redevelop. We should end up in the low to mid 80s for highs, warmer toward the coast and cooler toward the upstate.

The highest coverage of activity is favored for the western Midlands and Upper CSRA. As daytime heating wanes overnight, the chances for precipitation decrease as well. Overnight lows are likely to remain in the mid 60s once again.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Monday and Monday night...Long wave upper trough will extend from the Mid Atlantic south through the Carolinas early in the day then shift to the coast in the afternoon. The Bermuda high will be offshore with weak south- westerly flow across the area.
The moisture appears to decrease somewhat through the day with the higher precipitable water shifting to the east. Models suggest relatively weak to moderate instability instability in the afternoon as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s with warm advection. Relatively steep low to mid level lapse rates noted with inverted V sounding profile. Mid level lapse rates are weak and there may be a developing cap in the afternoon as trough moves toward the coast. The ECMWF does show a short wave moving through the area and the GEM shows a weaker one. The lift appears focused in the Pee Dee. Perhaps a sea breeze front may move inland during the afternoon to provide lift
The CAMS show limited convective coverage
i.e., widely scattered. NBM focus pops in the east. Cut pops back slightly from NBM, but expect some isolated showers in the morning then scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon mainly in the east. Any convection should diminish quickly in the early eventing. Lows near normal values in the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Mid level ridge appears stronger Tuesday and instability appears weaker than Monday although low to mid level lapse rates appear steep given temperatures continue to climb to around 90 degrees with continued warm advection. Think there may be a strong cap. Moisture decreases as well with precipitable water down to 1.3 inches. Trigger lacking although another sea breeze front is possible. Cut pops to slight chance most areas in the afternoon with chance along the 95 corridor. Low temps a little warmer, mainly upper 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Ensemble models have been consistent. Upper level ridge flattens early in the period and shifts east. Moisture increases again across the region especially by Thursday with models indicating high probability of values > 1.5 inches, possibly near 2 inches.
Deep upper low over south central Canada will be building southeast with generally northwest flow across the southeast.
Embedded short wave troughs will be moving through the area as trough develops in the southeast. At the surface, a cold front is expected from the Ohio Valley southwest to the mid Mississippi valley in the day Thursday. The front will be moving toward the southeast late week, moving into the area Friday.
Scattered convection expected Wednesday and Thursday. Ensembles indicating chance of moderate instability with increasing triggers for thunderstorms. Deep layer shear becomes moderately strong by Thursday as the front approaches from the northwest.
Stronger lift possible with diffluent flow aloft. So, at this time marginal severe threat. Drier air moving in by Saturday.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Extensive cloud cover remains over the region with scattered light - SHRA moving from southwest to northeast. However, restrictions have yet to be reported and so have not included VSBY restrictions in the TAFs. After this wave of activity passes, additional chances for scattered -SHRA and isolated -TSRA are possible again this afternoon and evening. Have included VCSH at CUB/CAE/AGS/DNL to account for this, but more fine tuning will likely be needed in future updates.
Surface winds are expected to generally be SLY/SELY at less than 10 kts through the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday with intermittent CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

Bacon Bridge
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Sun -- 02:29 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:30 AM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:45 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Cuckolds Creek
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Sun -- 03:14 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:40 AM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:32 PM EDT     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:13 PM EDT     4.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cuckolds Creek, Combahee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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Columbia, SC,