Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 11:11 PM   Moonset 7:47 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS62 KCAE 270010 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 810 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
Fair Saturday through Monday with a gradual warming trend. A weak front is expected to bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday through Thursday, mainly northern and eastern areas.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure continues to ridge into the forecast area with an upper ridge axis shifting in from the west. While some mid-level clouds remain in place over the area, isolated rain showers, mainly in North Carolina will continue to dissipate over the next several hours. As a result, expect dry conditions through the rest of the night. Low temperatures once again expected near seasonal average in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Upper ridging is expected to remain over the region through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to be centered off the Mid- Atlantic/Northeast coast. This high is anticipated to weaken and drift south. The combination of ridging aloft and surface high centered to our east is expected to lead to fair weather over the weekend and start a gradual warming trend. Some guidance is showing a subtle boundary working its way around the surface high, which can mainly be seen in brief lowering of PWATS behind it. This feature could bring showers near the area Sunday afternoon, but it looks like any shower activity will remain offshore. That said, the Euro and GEFS ensembles are showing a low chance (~10-20%) for precipitation associated with this, mainly in the CSRA. In contrast, the NBM is showing 0% chance of rain on Sunday.
Forecast soundings indicate there would need to be some sort of forcing strong enough to provide enough lift to get showers in the area, which I'm not confident the boundary will be.
Therefore, have decided to keep PoPs below 10%.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Upper ridging and surface high pressure remain in place to start the work week, allowing for a warming trend to continue as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s. A shortwave and associated frontal boundary are forecast to move through the region around midweek, bringing a slight chance of showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Despite the potential showers, warm temperatures are anticipated to continue. A deeper trough approaches the area toward the end of the long term period, which looks to give us a better chance of more widespread rainfall late next week into the weekend. That said, it's still several days away so confidence is on the lower side still.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Plenty of mid and upper level cloudiness moving through the region this evening. In addition, some smoke is also being indicted across the Midlands, which may reduce visibilities to mvfr the next few hours. Low-level easterly winds will continue overnight. Guidance has backed off mvfr ceiling formation late tonight, and have trended that direction, keeping mostly vfr ceilings across all taf locations. Did bring some scattered clouds around 1500 ft late tonight with Atlantic moisture still moving inland. Low-level jet should keep good mixing just off the surface, helping to inhibit fog formation and low stratus.
Vfr should continue Saturday. Winds remain easterly through the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Early morning fog or stratus development will remain possible through the period. Slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday on.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

Bacon Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:35 AM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:04 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:43 PM EDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:53 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Canaday Landing
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:13 AM EDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:09 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:32 PM EDT     0.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:02 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Canaday Landing, south of, Edisto River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Columbia, SC,